Estimating gasoline product demand in Iran during the period from 1995 to 2017 using the state-space model and relevant guidelines for price liberalizations
hooshmand
hashemi
economics, Azad university of Abhar
author
TAIMOR
MOHAMMADI
ecomomics. Azad unversity.
author
farzane
khalili
economics, Azad university of Abhar
author
farid
asgary
economics
author
text
article
2020
per
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the gasoline demand function via the state-space model and the implications for its price liberalization by using the Kalman filter method in the framework of time-varying coefficients model. For this purpose, data from the Energy Balance Sheet and the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company were used during the years 1374-1396. The results of the estimation of the model indicate that the price elasticity of gasoline varies in the studied period and after the implementation of subsidy targeting (1389 to 1396), in some of the seasons of the year, absolute value of the price elasticity of gasoline increased and decreased in some seasons. With three different scenarios, it is anticipated that with the increase of 10% in the price of gasoline in the sixth development plan, the demand for gasoline does not decrease unlike expectations. Also, because absolute value of the elasticity of the price of gasoline at the beginning of the sixth of developmental program is greater and lower at the end of the program, increasing of the price of the gasoline should not be the same over the program. It is recommended that planners and policymakers to control gasoline demand are advised to increase the price of gasoline in the sixth of developmental plan by more than 10 %, and this price increase from the beginning of the program to the end of the program is ascending.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
1
28
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_8919_a535d63e61d6a0a703f7ce43fd97b338.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.8919
The Impacts of Gender Inequality on Macroeconomic Variables in The Framework of a DSGE Model
Mohammad Mahdi
Zare
Yazd University
author
Zahra
Nasrollahi
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Yazd University
author
Hojat
Parsa
Ph. D
author
text
article
2020
per
Women, as half of the population of the society, play a decisive role in economic, political and social activities. So, in this paper, the effects of monetary, supply of female labor force and technology shocks on macroeconomic variables such as production, employment of women and men, total employment and gender inequality in the labor market are discussed, in the framework of a DSGE model. The results indicate that monetary and technology shocks increase production, employment of women and men, and total employment. These shocks increase men's employment more than women's, and as a result, gender inequality in the labor market increases. Supply of female labor force shock increases production, total employment and women's employment, and reduces men's employment, as a result, gender inequality in the labor market decreases. This study helps economic policymakers and planners to assess the impact of these shocks on economic variables, especially on the employment of men and women, and gender inequality in the labor market, and, by adopting appropriate policies, reduce the inefficiencies.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
29
60
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_9601_1346a05340df293869aeed2e423527d0.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.9601
Assessment of the Proposal to Change the Personal Income Tax due to the Features of Khums: Computable General Equilibrium Approach
Ghassem
Najafi KajAbad
Phd. Student University of Mazandaran
Head of Evaluation Group. Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz
author
Mohamad Taghi
Gilak
Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
author
Mansour
Zarra Nezhad
Economics, Faculty of Economic & Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.
author
Alireza
Pourfaraj
Economcis, Faculty of Economics and Administrative SciencesT University of Mazandaran. Babolsar. Iran.
author
text
article
2019
per
The reform of the tax system has always been a major concern for economists as well as a major challenge for policymakers. One of the main priorities of the Iranian tax system is to delve into consideration of obligatory religious payments (Khums) and charity in order to persuade people to pay taxes as well as to reduce tax burden. One of the suggestions have been offered in this field is to substitute Khums for the corresponding income taxes. Khums has a structure the same as tax on total income with a flat rate. In the present contribution, the economic effects of this suggestion were evaluated. The assessment of tax proposals is often studied by performing simulations. The present study evaluated and asserted the suggested changes in the personal income tax structure in Iran with the features of khums (rate unionization and its post-consumption) via the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model and the Social Accounting Matrix 1390 (2011). The outcomes of the present study showed that the household savings have been declined over a 30-year period, while household consumption and expenses have increased at the same period of time. In other words, current consumption is preferable rather than saving for the future. In spite of increasing consumption, reduction in saving has resulted in lower investment, which ultimately it would cause a decrease in GDP.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2019
61
90
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_8439_317cf38e10970971dd097216fb8e0da4.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2019.8439
The Study of Threshold Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Private Investment in Iran
Yalda
Mostafapour
Ph.D Student of of University of Mazandaran
author
amir mansour
tehranchian
faculty member
author
Ahmad
Jafari Samimi
Professor and Faculty member of University of Mazandaran
author
Saeed
Rasekhi
Professor and the Faculty member of University of Mazandaran
author
text
article
2020
per
The purpose of this study is to investigate threshold effects of exchange rate fluctuations on private investment in Iran. For this purpose, were used the data from 1974-2017 and Generalized Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and atouthreshold regression model. Based on the results obtained, is confirmed existence of the impact of thresholds on and exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment in Iran. Accordingly, although the effect of increasing exchange rate fluctuations less than the threshold on the investment in this sector was negative, no statistically significant effect was observed. Also in the currency regime with fluctuations above the threshold of 2122 Rials, is increased the negative impact of the exchange rate on private sector investment. So, although, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on private equity investment has always been negative, if the exchange rate volatility exceeds the threshold, the effect of the exchange rate fluctuations on private sector investment, significant and its reducing effect was reinforced. In addition, according to the research findings, GDP and private sector investment with a lag,have a positive and significant effect and government investment has a negative and significant effect on private sector investment.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
91
116
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_10015_4b8fc4a587e99175b97f3af8cc0836ce.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.10015
The Effect of Black Market Premium and Asymmetric Inflation and Unemployment on Income Inequality in Iran
shahryar
zaroki
Assistant Professor/ University of Mazandaran
author
Arman
Yousefi barfurushi
Master of Science in Economics Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar
author
Yaser
Mehri karnami
Master of Science in Economics Science, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar
author
text
article
2020
per
The expansion of the dual exchange system (official and unofficial) increases the concerns about imbalances in macroeconomic variables, particularly, income inequality. Also, Inflation and unemployment are as the macroeconomic variables that can affect income inequality. Accordingly, the present study wants to investigate the role of the black market premium (Dollar) and the asymmetric effect of the unemployment rate and inflation on income inequality. For this purpose, based on the annual data between 1978 and 2017, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach has been used in estimation. The results show that the black market premium in both linear and non-linear forms has a positive (undesirable) effect on income inequality. Unemployment in linear form has a positive (undesirable) effect on income inequality only in the long run. In non-linear form, the decreases in unemployment have a positive (desirable) effect on inequality in the short run. In the long run, both increases and decreases in unemployment have a direct impact on income inequality and the value of the desirable effect of decreases in unemployment is more than the undesirable effect of increases. Thus, the impact of asymmetric unemployment is confirmed on the income inequality in both the short and long run. Inflation in linear form has a direct effect on income inequality, but in non-linear form, both in the short and long run, decreases in inflation have a positive (desirable) effect on inequality. Hence, inflation also has an asymmetric effect on income inequality. Another finding is that the desirable effect of decreases in unemployment on income inequality is more than the desired effect of decreases in inflation on income inequality.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
117
148
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_9423_a1c87df454388ba9758aad1731096e01.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.9423
Investigation of the volatility spillover effect and dynamic conditional correlations in Tehran Stock Exchange using wavelet based Bayesian conditional variance heteroscedasticity
ali
hoseini
urmia
author
Khalil
Jahangiri
uromieh university
author
mahdi
ghaemi asl
Assistant Professor, Economics and Islamic Banking Department, Faculty of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
author
Hassan
Heidari
Professor of Economics, Urmia University
author
text
article
2020
per
Skewness, fat tails and frequency dimension are important features of financial time series that have not been taken into account in classical econometric models. Therefore, in this study, the Bayesian method for conditional variance heteroscedasticity based on wavelet analysis has been used to investigate the volatility spillover effect and dynamic conditional correlations in three sub-periods between the daily return data of selected Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) indices during the period from December 14, 2008 to April 20, 2019. Sub-periods are defined according to the Iran nuclear deal and agreement between Iran and the P5+1, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which includes the pre-JCPOA period, JCPOA period, and the period after United States withdrawal from the JCPOA. The results of the Bayesian DCC GARCH (1,1) model, with the rejection of the constant conditional correlation hypothesis versus the dynamic conditional correlation hypothesis based on posterior marginal distribution in all subsections, indicates that the impact of shocks on the volatility of stock returns in wavelets and sub-periods are not the same. Also, Bayesian dynamic conditional correlation graphs are recommended for each sub-periods and in each wavelet, a different stock for a suitable investment.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
149
184
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_10724_1c58c1467871cd786d1184f7f2513b94.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.10724
The effect of currency crisis on GDP dynamics: PGLS approach
Nassim
Mehin Aslani Nia
Tabriz University
author
behzad
salmani
Tabriz University
author
Firouz
Fallahi
Tabriz University
author
Hossein
Asgharpour
Tabriz University
author
text
article
2020
per
It is important for economic policy makers to study and predict the sustainability of currency crisis effect on macroeconomic variables, especially GDP. In this regard, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of currency crisis on GDP dynamics during 1970-2016. In this regard, the empirical model has been estimated using the theoretical basis of the research and GPS approach. According to the results, the negative effect of the currency crisis on GDP is confirmed in short run. Foreign capital inflow and short-term foreign debt are among the factors exacerbating the effect of currency crisis on GDP growth in short run. The rate of export growth and the changes in terms of trade are moderating effect of currency crisis on -GDP. Increasing the supply of national currency as well as increasing government spending and budget deficits are exacerbating effect of crisis.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
185
210
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7430_4b814bb908897e81fd9f95a7ec69cedf.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.7430
The Impact of Government Trade Liberalization Policy on the Economic Complexity of Developing Countries
Hamid
Sepehrdoust
دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه بوعلی سینا همدان
author
Maryam
Setarehie
Bu-Ali-Sina University
author
Razieh
Davarikish
Bu-Ali-Sina University
author
text
article
2020
per
The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of government trade liberalization on the economic complexity of eight developing economies named Group D8 member countries during the period 2002-2017; using the PVAR method. immediate reaction test results show that, over a period of 10 years, economic complexity increases with positive shock from variables of trade freedom, foreign direct investment and gross fixed capital formation, but in the long run, the effect of imports of intermediary and capital goods is initially increasing and, after a short period, has a positive downward effect. The results of the analysis of variance also show, the variables of economic complexity, import of intermediate and capital goods, gross fixed capital formation, trade freedom and foreign direct investment respectively have the most impact on economic complexity, respectively.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
211
238
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_10658_5c3a81258b4c59b6b4818aef7fef2304.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.10658
Studying distribution effect of co2 taxation on Iranian household expenditure- input- output approach
fatemeh
Bazazan
دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه الزهرا
author
aida
Samavaty
alzahra university
author
text
article
2020
per
The environmental crises, caused by the increased energy consumption and the increasing trend of pollutants emissions resulted from energy carrier’s combustion in the world, is recognized as one of the most important challenges faced by governments in the 21st century. The CO2 taxation is considered as one of the CO2 emission reduction policies in one hand and increases government income on the other hand. Implementation of this policy has distributive effects that can help policymakers measure it. The present study aimed to investigate the distributive effects of CO2 taxation on urban and rural households’ incomes, using the environmental input-output approach. Main data bases in this study are: 2011 input-output table of Static Centre of Iran that is aggregated to 12 sectors due to statistical constraints on sectoral energy consumption. The second data base is consumption of petroleum products of economic was obtained from energy balanced sheet 2011. Rural and urban expenditure and incomes’ households are collected from 2011 Static Centre of Iran, This results show that the distributional effect of the carbon tax on rural household is progressive but for urban households not.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
239
264
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_10610_5ff03e99962ba7e9e016e9ff35240a30.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.10610
Analyzing the Impact of Corruption on Employment in Iran and Selected Islamic Countries: A Panel Cointegration with Cross-Sectional Dependency Approach
Siamak
Shokouhifard
Department of Economics, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
author
Roya
Aleemran
Department of economics-Economics&managment faculty-Tabriz azad islamic university-tabriz-Iran
author
nader
mehregan
دانشگاه بوعلی همدان
author
Farzad
Rahimzadeh
Assistant Professor, Department of Economic, Accounting and Tourist Management, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
author
text
article
2020
per
The employment rate is among the key indicators of the labor market and is subject to various economic components. One of the most important factors affecting employment is the corruption variable. Therefore, in this study, the effect of different indicators of corruption on employment level in Iran and Selected Islamic Countries is studied and three separate models are estimated in the period 2000- 2018. After estimating the models using panel data method, the cross-sectional dependency test was performed on the estimated models and at the 5% significance level, the existence of cross-sectional dependency was accepted. Therefore, for obtain reliable results, the Cup-FM Method was used to estimate the model. The results of model estimation showed that in all three models, corruption index had a negative effect on employee-to-population ratio and this effect was statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. The effect of banks' lending facilities on the ratio of employee-to-population ratio was positive in all three models but not significant at the 5% level. Capital stock and real wage had a positive and negative effect on employee-to-population ratio, respectively, and this effect was statistically significant at the 5% level. Trade openness also had a positive effect on the employee-to-population ratio, and only in the first model was this effect statistically significant. According to the estimated results, the effect of inflation on employment level was negative and this effect (except in the second model) was statistically significant.
Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics
University of Tabriz
2423-6586
7
v.
1
no.
2020
265
288
https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_10721_915f9fcdba1d16de79d55bff9c2c8303.pdf
dx.doi.org/10.22034/ecoj.2020.10721