University of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522Investigating the Price Behavior of Oil Products in Response to Changing the Price of Crude Oil in the Framework of Iranian Policy in the Oil SectorInvestigating the Price Behavior of Oil Products in Response to Changing the Price of Crude Oil in the Framework of Iranian Policy in the Oil Sector1247313FAShahrzadMohammadkhanliPh.D. Candidate in Oil & Gas Economy, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityTeymourMohammadiAssociate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityAliFaridzadAssistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityAbdorasoulGhasemiAssociate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityJournal Article20170912In recent years, the reform of oil product prices has been on the agenda for enforcing subsidies targeting and moving towards real prices. Understanding the pricing behavior of these products prior to making any decision is very important, which can be considered as a prerequisite for many energy-related decisions. The present paper seeks to investigate the existence of a rocket-feather effect in oil product prices- high-speed and fast-moving like a rocket, in response to rising crude oil prices and slow down prices, like a feather, in response to decrease crude oil prices. In this paper, which uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model and monthly data for the period 2005 to 2016, the results indicate a long-term and short-run asymmetric as well as rocket-feather effect for each of the five products. Therefore, in view of the above, it seems that the choice of Persian Gulf fob prices is not a suitable criterion, and the government should proceed with a favorable review in the targeted subsidy law and other related upstream legislation.In recent years, the reform of oil product prices has been on the agenda for enforcing subsidies targeting and moving towards real prices. Understanding the pricing behavior of these products prior to making any decision is very important, which can be considered as a prerequisite for many energy-related decisions. The present paper seeks to investigate the existence of a rocket-feather effect in oil product prices- high-speed and fast-moving like a rocket, in response to rising crude oil prices and slow down prices, like a feather, in response to decrease crude oil prices. In this paper, which uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model and monthly data for the period 2005 to 2016, the results indicate a long-term and short-run asymmetric as well as rocket-feather effect for each of the five products. Therefore, in view of the above, it seems that the choice of Persian Gulf fob prices is not a suitable criterion, and the government should proceed with a favorable review in the targeted subsidy law and other related upstream legislation.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7313_576acae362462bfbf63b54bc4617b490.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522Evaluating the Financial Frictions Effects on Macroeconomic Variables of Iran: A DSGE ApproachEvaluating the Financial Frictions Effects on Macroeconomic Variables of Iran: A DSGE Approach25527291FAMahboobehEskandariPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Alzahra UniversityMehdiPedramProfessor of Economics, Alzahra UniversityRezaBoostaniPh.D. in Economics, Researcher in CBIJournal Article20171115The conditions of the financial markets and institutions have made the effectiveness mechanism of economic policies more complicated so that evaluating the movements of economic variables, without considering the effects of financial frictions is not enough. Therefore this paper examines the effect of monetary, technology, investment efficiency, money demand and household’s preferences shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran by considering the financial friction. In this regard, we design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) for Iran and for estimating structural parameters of model use Bayesian procedure for seasonally data from 1995 to 2015. The results of the model estimation show that the instantaneous response functions of the variables to these shocks are in accordance with theoretical expectations and data, but the presence of financial frictions amplify the effect of some demand side shocks on macro variables, especially investment and prices of capital. On the other hand, the existence of financial frictions dampens the effects of supply shocks (positive technology shock) on variables in particular investment, and prevents it from increasing in comparison to the model without financial frictions.The conditions of the financial markets and institutions have made the effectiveness mechanism of economic policies more complicated so that evaluating the movements of economic variables, without considering the effects of financial frictions is not enough. Therefore this paper examines the effect of monetary, technology, investment efficiency, money demand and household’s preferences shocks on macroeconomic variables in Iran by considering the financial friction. In this regard, we design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) for Iran and for estimating structural parameters of model use Bayesian procedure for seasonally data from 1995 to 2015. The results of the model estimation show that the instantaneous response functions of the variables to these shocks are in accordance with theoretical expectations and data, but the presence of financial frictions amplify the effect of some demand side shocks on macro variables, especially investment and prices of capital. On the other hand, the existence of financial frictions dampens the effects of supply shocks (positive technology shock) on variables in particular investment, and prevents it from increasing in comparison to the model without financial frictions.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7291_6082ee1ac75198d5cd15174151ab872f.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522Introducing and Evaluating of New Behavioral Model in Consistent Ethical Behaviors Based on Rational Choice TheoryIntroducing and Evaluating of New Behavioral Model in Consistent Ethical Behaviors Based on Rational Choice Theory53847128FASalarJalilpourPh.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Tabriz,MohammadaliMotefakkerazadProfessor of Economics, University of TabrizHassan AghaNazariProfessor of Economics, Research Institute of Hawzah and UniversityZahraKarimi TakanlouAssociate Professor of Economics, University of TabrizJournal Article20170710Daily experiencing of ethical behaviors in human lives, contradicted common approaches in rational choice theories and self-interest oriented behaviors. So, these behaviors, based on goal orienting aspect of human behaviors, need to be more recognized and explained. Yet, the main theory of predicting rational human behavior, expected utility maximization theory, lacks unanimity towards dealing with ethical preferences and comparing theses preferences with material ones. Until know, despite of various descriptive studies, literature does not have transparent approach toward integrating material and ethical preferences and appearance conditions of ethical behaviors in rational decision making process. This study aims introducing a new behavioral model of consistent ethical behaviors based on rational choice theory. After then for evaluating predictive power of introduced model in context of empirical data, information for 90.000 persons from 57 countries was investigated. Analysis results show the conformity between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions of the model. end of abstractDaily experiencing of ethical behaviors in human lives, contradicted common approaches in rational choice theories and self-interest oriented behaviors. So, these behaviors, based on goal orienting aspect of human behaviors, need to be more recognized and explained. Yet, the main theory of predicting rational human behavior, expected utility maximization theory, lacks unanimity towards dealing with ethical preferences and comparing theses preferences with material ones. Until know, despite of various descriptive studies, literature does not have transparent approach toward integrating material and ethical preferences and appearance conditions of ethical behaviors in rational decision making process. This study aims introducing a new behavioral model of consistent ethical behaviors based on rational choice theory. After then for evaluating predictive power of introduced model in context of empirical data, information for 90.000 persons from 57 countries was investigated. Analysis results show the conformity between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions of the model. end of abstracthttps://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7128_92b5f70eb618419487cf9f3d09d0d85b.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522The Effect of Productivity on Real Exchange Rate with the Emphasis the Abundance of Skilled and Unskilled LaborThe Effect of Productivity on Real Exchange Rate with the Emphasis the Abundance of Skilled and Unskilled Labor851127261FASeyed BagherFazayel ArdakaniPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of KermanHosseinAkbari FardAssistant Professor of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of KermanSayyed AbdolmajidJalaeeProfessor of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of KermanJournal Article20180102This article develops the traditional two-part model in which uses labor and capital. That is, in this model, for production are used capital, skilled labor and unskilled labor. It is assumed; tradable sector for production use capital and skilled labor and non-tradable sector use capital and unskilled labor. The main objective of this article is investigation the effects of productivity on the real exchange rate index according to the abundance of skilled and unskilled labor. For this purpose, This article are used pooled data including Iran and trade partners of Iran in the period 2000-2015 using Fixed Effects (FE), Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methods. The Estimated results show that the increase in productivity will lead to higher (lower) real exchange rate appreciation in countries that have the high abundance of (unskilled) skilled labor.<br /><br />This article develops the traditional two-part model in which uses labor and capital. That is, in this model, for production are used capital, skilled labor and unskilled labor. It is assumed; tradable sector for production use capital and skilled labor and non-tradable sector use capital and unskilled labor. The main objective of this article is investigation the effects of productivity on the real exchange rate index according to the abundance of skilled and unskilled labor. For this purpose, This article are used pooled data including Iran and trade partners of Iran in the period 2000-2015 using Fixed Effects (FE), Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methods. The Estimated results show that the increase in productivity will lead to higher (lower) real exchange rate appreciation in countries that have the high abundance of (unskilled) skilled labor.<br /><br />https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7261_55ffc944f35aa0e74b153d4cf0d5190f.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522Analysis of Household Expenditure on Food in Iran by Age – Period – Cohort Model and Pooled RegressionAnalysis of Household Expenditure on Food in Iran by Age – Period – Cohort Model and Pooled Regression1131327429FAEsmaeilPishbaharAssociate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of TabrizMohsenSalehi KamroodiPh.D. Candidate in Agricultural Economics, University of TabrizMohammadGhahremanzadehAssociate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of TabrizJournal Article20161206In recently years, demographic problems as the aging population and the reduction of households' size have been important issues in Iran. The study on the impact of demographic factors on food consumption is essential to establish policies on food security, social welfare, and agricultural marketing. From microeconomics perspective, the behavior study of generations is important, because historical events as well as preferences change over time may cause different behavior consumption of generations. From macroeconomics perspective, this study allows the examination of the life - cycle hypothesis. From marketing perspective, this study is important to recognize the behavior of food buyers. Therefore, this research tries to examine the impact of age structure, generational change and yearly shocks on food expenditures using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis on pooled data of 323072 urban households' and 312358 rural households'. The results of this research show the increase of age lead to reduce food demand; food consumption for younger generations is less than older generations, and finally period shocks influence food expenditure.In recently years, demographic problems as the aging population and the reduction of households' size have been important issues in Iran. The study on the impact of demographic factors on food consumption is essential to establish policies on food security, social welfare, and agricultural marketing. From microeconomics perspective, the behavior study of generations is important, because historical events as well as preferences change over time may cause different behavior consumption of generations. From macroeconomics perspective, this study allows the examination of the life - cycle hypothesis. From marketing perspective, this study is important to recognize the behavior of food buyers. Therefore, this research tries to examine the impact of age structure, generational change and yearly shocks on food expenditures using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis on pooled data of 323072 urban households' and 312358 rural households'. The results of this research show the increase of age lead to reduce food demand; food consumption for younger generations is less than older generations, and finally period shocks influence food expenditure.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7429_7b1ecd14e704d5751bcd0ac239289991.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522The Effect of Per-Capita Income Growth on Net Imports of Virtual Water in Selected CountriesThe Effect of Per-Capita Income Growth on Net Imports of Virtual Water in Selected Countries1331587322FAMozhganMoallemiAssistant Professor of Economics, Payame Noor UniversityJournal Article20171208Today, the concept of virtual water is one of the most important issues in water resources management. Although there are many studies in the world about this, however, there are few limited quantitative studies in the field of virtual water in Iran. Considering the critical situation of water resources in low-water regions of the world, especially in Iran, this issue is of great importance. The innovation of the present paper is to compute virtual water values by 6-digit SITC codes for all sectors of the economy in selected countries (Persian Gulf countries and European countries). So, for each export and import code in the countries, the amount of virtual water is calculated. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the growth of per capita income on the net import of virtual water in selected countries during 2001-2012, using estimated values of water contained in products. For this purpose, using the panel data method, an econometric model is estimated. The results of the model estimation showed that, according to theoretical foundations, there is a U-inversion relationship between per capita income and the growth of virtual water imports. So that, Virtual import of water in countries with lower per capita income (Persian Gulf countries) is facing increasing growth. Therefore, it is recommended that in such countries, products with higher water productivity should be considered for export. On the other hand, import relies on products with lower water productivity.Today, the concept of virtual water is one of the most important issues in water resources management. Although there are many studies in the world about this, however, there are few limited quantitative studies in the field of virtual water in Iran. Considering the critical situation of water resources in low-water regions of the world, especially in Iran, this issue is of great importance. The innovation of the present paper is to compute virtual water values by 6-digit SITC codes for all sectors of the economy in selected countries (Persian Gulf countries and European countries). So, for each export and import code in the countries, the amount of virtual water is calculated. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the growth of per capita income on the net import of virtual water in selected countries during 2001-2012, using estimated values of water contained in products. For this purpose, using the panel data method, an econometric model is estimated. The results of the model estimation showed that, according to theoretical foundations, there is a U-inversion relationship between per capita income and the growth of virtual water imports. So that, Virtual import of water in countries with lower per capita income (Persian Gulf countries) is facing increasing growth. Therefore, it is recommended that in such countries, products with higher water productivity should be considered for export. On the other hand, import relies on products with lower water productivity.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7322_64d78bb40ba6094e34cf13fdbedbc8e2.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522Determinants of Exchange Market Pressures in Different Exchange Rate Regimes:
Bayesian Model Averaging EvidenceDeterminants of Exchange Market Pressures in Different Exchange Rate Regimes:
Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence1591827314FAMaryamBarzegar MarvastiPh.D. Candidate in Economics, University of TabrizBehzadSalmaniProfessor of Economics, University of TabrizSeyed AlirezaKazerooniProfessor of Economics, University of TabrizParvizMohammadzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, University of TabrizJournal Article20161115The purpose of this paper is to determine the most significant leading indicators of the currency crisis in two groups of countries, countries with the floating exchange rate regimes and countries with the non-floating ones. A unique set data that covers 43 countries and their currency crises during 1999-2014 and 64 indicators are used. Moreover, estimation technique that is robust to model uncertainty, i.e. Bayesian Model Averaging is applied. Two types of the warning systems are used. Therefore, in the first system, warning variables of currency crisis are investigated while in the second ones, determinants of the exchange market pressure volatility are examined. Morever, these systems involve monitoring the evaluation of several leading indicators from the financial, political, structural, trade and other sectors. Overall, the results indicate that Oil price plays a pivotal role as a warning variable in countries with floating exchange rate regimes in both systems. Just the same, for the countries that experienced non-floating exchange rate regime prior to the crisis and during of it, changes in exchange market pressure index is a significant leading indicator of currency crises.The purpose of this paper is to determine the most significant leading indicators of the currency crisis in two groups of countries, countries with the floating exchange rate regimes and countries with the non-floating ones. A unique set data that covers 43 countries and their currency crises during 1999-2014 and 64 indicators are used. Moreover, estimation technique that is robust to model uncertainty, i.e. Bayesian Model Averaging is applied. Two types of the warning systems are used. Therefore, in the first system, warning variables of currency crisis are investigated while in the second ones, determinants of the exchange market pressure volatility are examined. Morever, these systems involve monitoring the evaluation of several leading indicators from the financial, political, structural, trade and other sectors. Overall, the results indicate that Oil price plays a pivotal role as a warning variable in countries with floating exchange rate regimes in both systems. Just the same, for the countries that experienced non-floating exchange rate regime prior to the crisis and during of it, changes in exchange market pressure index is a significant leading indicator of currency crises.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7314_929edd4c026a6459afe31ec4c6d6779d.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522An Interactive Effect of Institutional Quality and Banking Development on Economic Growth: The Applied of Financial Combined IndicatorAn Interactive Effect of Institutional Quality and Banking Development on Economic Growth: The Applied of Financial Combined Indicator1832127109FALidaGohariPh.D. Candidate in Economics, University of MazandaranZahraKarimi MoughariAssociate Professor of Economics, University of MazandaranShahryarZarokiAssistant Professor of Economics, University of MazandaranJournal Article20171206This paper considers the causes of the differences in economic growth by the interactive effect of institutional quality and the development of the banking sector. For this purpose, 24 upper middle-income countries were selected and their financial development and institutional quality for the period 1996 to 2015 were derived. The weighted average of three financial development indexes was calculated by the principal component analysis method. Then, GMM-Sys estimator, in the form of conditional convergence model, was used to calculate the interactive effect of institutional quality and financial development on economic growth. The results show that financial development has a negative effect on economic growth in selected countries, but the interactive effect of institutional quality and financial development decreases this negative effect; as institutional quality along with its positive effect on economic growth, reduces the negative impact of the banking sector development. Also, in oil exporting countries, the institutional quality has lower effect on economic growth; and financial development has more unfavorable impact on economic growth. Finally, to make a positive impact of financial development on economic growth, an effectiveness threshold of institutional quality is calculated.This paper considers the causes of the differences in economic growth by the interactive effect of institutional quality and the development of the banking sector. For this purpose, 24 upper middle-income countries were selected and their financial development and institutional quality for the period 1996 to 2015 were derived. The weighted average of three financial development indexes was calculated by the principal component analysis method. Then, GMM-Sys estimator, in the form of conditional convergence model, was used to calculate the interactive effect of institutional quality and financial development on economic growth. The results show that financial development has a negative effect on economic growth in selected countries, but the interactive effect of institutional quality and financial development decreases this negative effect; as institutional quality along with its positive effect on economic growth, reduces the negative impact of the banking sector development. Also, in oil exporting countries, the institutional quality has lower effect on economic growth; and financial development has more unfavorable impact on economic growth. Finally, to make a positive impact of financial development on economic growth, an effectiveness threshold of institutional quality is calculated.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7109_02f5bc9e75eb49ce86f837348f99be74.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522Efficient Allocation of CO2 Emissions in Selected OPEC Member Based on Zero Sum Gains (ZSG-DEA) Data Envelopment Analysis ModelEfficient Allocation of CO2 Emissions in Selected OPEC Member Based on Zero Sum Gains (ZSG-DEA) Data Envelopment Analysis Model2132367448FAHadiehAlishiriPh.D. Candidate in Oil and Gas Economics, Allameh Tabatabaie UniversityAtefehTaklifAssistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabie UniversityHamidAmadehAssistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabie UniversityHamidrezaArbabAssistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabie UniversityAsgarKhademvataniAssistant Professor of Economics, Petroleum University of Technology (PUT)Seyed HosseinSajadifarAssistant Professor of Economics, University of Applied Science and Technology of Ghand KarajJournal Article20171116As the result of increasing importance of global CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions and balance between economic development and these gases emission, cooperation between all countries is necessary. The equity in allocation of emission allowances have a significant impact on efficiency of this system. Based on Zero sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) allocation model and given the premise of fixed CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, this paper attempts to determine optimal emissions allocation and creating conditions for cooperation among selected OPEC members. The results show that after initial emission rights were allocated in accordance with the ZSG-DEA model, optimal distribution in these selected countries differs from their current state. Also, Consider to the energy consumption indices, capital formation, population, gross domestic production and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, the optimal emissions in our country is higher than the current level. While Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE should reduce their CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.As the result of increasing importance of global CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions and balance between economic development and these gases emission, cooperation between all countries is necessary. The equity in allocation of emission allowances have a significant impact on efficiency of this system. Based on Zero sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) allocation model and given the premise of fixed CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, this paper attempts to determine optimal emissions allocation and creating conditions for cooperation among selected OPEC members. The results show that after initial emission rights were allocated in accordance with the ZSG-DEA model, optimal distribution in these selected countries differs from their current state. Also, Consider to the energy consumption indices, capital formation, population, gross domestic production and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, the optimal emissions in our country is higher than the current level. While Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE should reduce their CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7448_7164ac88e10944e4b87066370df0e240.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-65865120180522The Impact of Different Trade Liberalization Indicators on Different Tax Bases: A Comparison of Developed and Developing CountriesThe Impact of Different Trade Liberalization Indicators on Different Tax Bases: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Countries2372707460FASaeedeAhmadiPhD student
Faculty of Management and Economics
Olum va Tahgighat University
Tehran, I.R. IranJamshidPajooyanProfessor of Economics, Science and Research Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad UniversityMohsenMehraraProfessor of Economics, University of TehranAbbasMemarnejadAssistant Professor of Economics, Science and Research Branch of Tehran, Islamic Azad UniversityJournal Article20171209This study examines the impact of various trade liberalization indicators on total tax revenues and 4 tax bases from 2000 to 2015 between developed and developing WTO member countries. Since trade liberalization is possible to conducted through different means, three indicators of "Trade openness", "Tariff rate" and "Trade freedom" were used to indicate the degree of trade liberalization. The results show that each means of liberalization impacts the tax revenues in different way. The results of estimating equations in developing countries indicate that with any increase in liberalization, the international trade taxes fall, and the domestic taxes, including taxes on goods and services, corporate income taxes, and personal income taxes, rise. As a result, such changes impact the tariff rate more than two other indicators of trade liberalization. However, the results for the developed countries are completely different. Increasing trade liberalization in developed countries will lead to lower tax revenues. The results demonstrate that the impact of trade liberalization on tax revenues varies due to the level of countries’ development.This study examines the impact of various trade liberalization indicators on total tax revenues and 4 tax bases from 2000 to 2015 between developed and developing WTO member countries. Since trade liberalization is possible to conducted through different means, three indicators of "Trade openness", "Tariff rate" and "Trade freedom" were used to indicate the degree of trade liberalization. The results show that each means of liberalization impacts the tax revenues in different way. The results of estimating equations in developing countries indicate that with any increase in liberalization, the international trade taxes fall, and the domestic taxes, including taxes on goods and services, corporate income taxes, and personal income taxes, rise. As a result, such changes impact the tariff rate more than two other indicators of trade liberalization. However, the results for the developed countries are completely different. Increasing trade liberalization in developed countries will lead to lower tax revenues. The results demonstrate that the impact of trade liberalization on tax revenues varies due to the level of countries’ development.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_7460_dd08a46f5813351774707a012c2ef0cf.pdf