University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Determining the Optimal Amount of Market Power to Maximize the Performance of the Banking Industry Determining the Optimal Amount of Market Power to Maximize the Performance of the Banking Industry 1 34 13791 10.22034/ecoj.2021.40306.2665 FA Hassan Rezaei Ph.D. Student of Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran. h.rezaeiii@yahoo.com Mohammad Reza Lotf Alipour Professor of Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran Mohammad Ali Falahi Professor of Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran Journal Article 2020 06 21 The purpose of this paper is to study the factors inside and outside the banking industry on its performance. For this purpose, using the statistics of 170 countries during the years 1995-2017. The paper’s data analysis is System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach. After examining the static variability of the variables, the correlational relationships of the models are examined and the results indicate the existence of long-run equilibrium relations between the variables. In order to study the effect of each of the variables on performance indicators, the estimation model was studied and examined. The results of the study show that the structure-behavior-performance hypotheses (SCP) and efficient structure (ES) are confirmed and the relative market power hypothesis (RMP) are rejected. An inverse U-shaped relationship was found between concentration and profitability, which increased to a threshold level of 0.164 for the Lerner index, with increasing concentration, profitability increasing and then decreasing, and the relationship between concentration and performance being the U-shaped curve after the level. A threshold of 0.25 for the Lerner index increases performance. Considering institutional quality makes the relationship between concentration and profitability U-shaped. Therefore, institutional quality moderates the adverse effects of market power on profitability. Also, considering institutional quality causes the relationship between concentration and efficiency to be inverted U-shaped. This means that in a low-quality institutional environment, market power leads to inefficiency and the hypothesis of a quiet life is confirmed, and in a high-quality institutional environment, market power leads to greater efficiency and the hypothesis of a quiet life is rejected The purpose of this paper is to study the factors inside and outside the banking industry on its performance. For this purpose, using the statistics of 170 countries during the years 1995-2017. The paper’s data analysis is System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM) approach. After examining the static variability of the variables, the correlational relationships of the models are examined and the results indicate the existence of long-run equilibrium relations between the variables. In order to study the effect of each of the variables on performance indicators, the estimation model was studied and examined. The results of the study show that the structure-behavior-performance hypotheses (SCP) and efficient structure (ES) are confirmed and the relative market power hypothesis (RMP) are rejected. An inverse U-shaped relationship was found between concentration and profitability, which increased to a threshold level of 0.164 for the Lerner index, with increasing concentration, profitability increasing and then decreasing, and the relationship between concentration and performance being the U-shaped curve after the level. A threshold of 0.25 for the Lerner index increases performance. Considering institutional quality makes the relationship between concentration and profitability U-shaped. Therefore, institutional quality moderates the adverse effects of market power on profitability. Also, considering institutional quality causes the relationship between concentration and efficiency to be inverted U-shaped. This means that in a low-quality institutional environment, market power leads to inefficiency and the hypothesis of a quiet life is confirmed, and in a high-quality institutional environment, market power leads to greater efficiency and the hypothesis of a quiet life is rejected

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_13791_28cd943049b713a34ad28b0857be2c78.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Economic Prospect in MENA Countries until 2105 : The Application of RICE Model Economic Prospect in MENA Countries until 2105 : The Application of RICE Model 35 76 13809 10.22034/ecoj.2021.43037.2780 FA Marzieh Haghshenas Economic Department , University of Isfahan Rozita Moayedfar Economic Department, University of Isfahan Shekoofeh Farahmand Economic Department, University of Isfahan Alimorad Sharifi Economic Department, University of Isfahan Journal Article 2020 12 05 Today, global warming is one of the most important human concerns in the fields of economy, energy and environment. The most important element in global warming is the burning fossil fuels that release the greenhouse gases including CO2. The researches by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that global warming will rise more than 2 degrees centigrade by the end of the century with respect to the pre-industrial era, if no effort is made to reduce CO2 emissions. Since the MENA region is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world due to climate change, so the main purpose of this study is to assess the effects of climate change on the economic variables in MENA region until 2105. For this purpose RICE model is used which is based on the computational general equilibrium model. The results indicate that the global average temperature will rise to 4.49 degrees centigrade until 2105 year in comparison to the pre-industrial era, if no policy is implemented to prevent rising temperatures. The trend of regional GDP and consumption are similar and will increasingly move. In the long-run, the capital accumulation will increase in the upper-middle income, the lower-middle income and the high income countries, respectively; while employment will increase in the lower-middle income, the upper-middle income and the high income countries, respectively. Environmental damage is the most in the high income countries in comparison to the other groups in MENA region. Today, global warming is one of the most important human concerns in the fields of economy, energy and environment. The most important element in global warming is the burning fossil fuels that release the greenhouse gases including CO2. The researches by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that global warming will rise more than 2 degrees centigrade by the end of the century with respect to the pre-industrial era, if no effort is made to reduce CO2 emissions. Since the MENA region is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world due to climate change, so the main purpose of this study is to assess the effects of climate change on the economic variables in MENA region until 2105. For this purpose RICE model is used which is based on the computational general equilibrium model. The results indicate that the global average temperature will rise to 4.49 degrees centigrade until 2105 year in comparison to the pre-industrial era, if no policy is implemented to prevent rising temperatures. The trend of regional GDP and consumption are similar and will increasingly move. In the long-run, the capital accumulation will increase in the upper-middle income, the lower-middle income and the high income countries, respectively; while employment will increase in the lower-middle income, the upper-middle income and the high income countries, respectively. Environmental damage is the most in the high income countries in comparison to the other groups in MENA region.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_13809_f5fa284953cfe50b7f2373b659b0d633.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Impact of the BDI Volatility, exchange Rate Movement and Global Economic Activity on Loaded Port Cargo in Iran Impact of the BDI Volatility, exchange Rate Movement and Global Economic Activity on Loaded Port Cargo in Iran 77 100 13815 10.22034/ecoj.2021.42395.2746 FA Mahdokht Habibi Ph.D. Studnt of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch Zahra Afshari Professor of Economics, University of Alzahra Abbas Memarnejad Assistant Professor at Department of Economic, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University Mehdi Taghavi Professor of Economics, University of Alameh Tabatabaee Journal Article 2021 07 01 According to the Trade and Development Organization Seaborne Trade accounts for more than 90% of total trade. In Iran, including oil statistics, this share is about 98% in imports and 85% in exports. Therefore, it is important to identify the factors affecting Iran's Seaborne trade. The Baltic Dry Index is one of the leading economic indicators that closely relates to global economic activities and measures the shipping economy. This article explores the impact of the BDI Volatility, exchange rate movements and global economic activity on loaded cargoes in Iran in the period of 1379: 01- 1398: 12. BDI Volatility were measured by using conditional variance AR(1) and GARCH(1, 1). The results of the generalized least squares tests of FMOLS and CCR-corrected component regression showed that The long-term elasticity of loaded port cargo to the global economic activity index and the nominal exchange rate (depreciation of the currency) is positive , while the elasticity of loaded port cargo to the BDI volatility is negative. The results indicate that the growth of the global economy and the competitiveness tend to increase the Seaborne Trade in Iran, while the BDI volatility had a negative impact on the growth of total loaded cargo in Iran. Due to the estimated error correction coefficient, the convergence of the model towards the long-run equilibrium is slow. According to the Trade and Development Organization Seaborne Trade accounts for more than 90% of total trade. In Iran, including oil statistics, this share is about 98% in imports and 85% in exports. Therefore, it is important to identify the factors affecting Iran's Seaborne trade. The Baltic Dry Index is one of the leading economic indicators that closely relates to global economic activities and measures the shipping economy. This article explores the impact of the BDI Volatility, exchange rate movements and global economic activity on loaded cargoes in Iran in the period of 1379: 01- 1398: 12. BDI Volatility were measured by using conditional variance AR(1) and GARCH(1, 1). The results of the generalized least squares tests of FMOLS and CCR-corrected component regression showed that The long-term elasticity of loaded port cargo to the global economic activity index and the nominal exchange rate (depreciation of the currency) is positive , while the elasticity of loaded port cargo to the BDI volatility is negative. The results indicate that the growth of the global economy and the competitiveness tend to increase the Seaborne Trade in Iran, while the BDI volatility had a negative impact on the growth of total loaded cargo in Iran. Due to the estimated error correction coefficient, the convergence of the model towards the long-run equilibrium is slow.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_13815_f91d52a11b1d2694070eb08e546cc202.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Urban and Rural Region in Iran; A Non-Parametric Approach Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Urban and Rural Region in Iran; A Non-Parametric Approach 101 126 14160 10.22034/ecoj.2022.44125.2814 FA Mahboobeh Jahadi Department of Economics- University of Mazandaran Zahra(Mila) Elmi Faculty member of Economics Department, University of Mazandaran Journal Article 2021 02 02 Unemployment as a socioeconomic issue has always been one of the most important concerns in every country especially in developing ones. Regarding to the high level of unemployment particularly among women, young and higher-educated people and of course long duration of unemployment in Iran, considering unemployment duration is getting more important than before. In this paper, by using non-parametric approach in survival analysis the determinants of unemployment duration in urban and rural area in 2018. According to Kaplan-Meier estimator the probability of being unemployment in urban area is more than rural area. Women and young labor have the least chance to exit from unemployment pool. Also, gender gap in rural area is more than urban area. Among unemployed persons with university degrees, individuals having associate degree have the least unemployment survival probability. One more is that survival probability of individuals with unemployment insurance in rural area is more than without insurance. People who are the only unemployed person in their family have more chance to exit from unemployment spell. So, it seems that balanced development, consistency between university educations and labor market demands and needs, amending the rules of labor market due to reducing the gender gap and age of retirement are effective policies in order to reducing unemployment spells and its negative consequences Unemployment as a socioeconomic issue has always been one of the most important concerns in every country especially in developing ones. Regarding to the high level of unemployment particularly among women, young and higher-educated people and of course long duration of unemployment in Iran, considering unemployment duration is getting more important than before. In this paper, by using non-parametric approach in survival analysis the determinants of unemployment duration in urban and rural area in 2018. According to Kaplan-Meier estimator the probability of being unemployment in urban area is more than rural area. Women and young labor have the least chance to exit from unemployment pool. Also, gender gap in rural area is more than urban area. Among unemployed persons with university degrees, individuals having associate degree have the least unemployment survival probability. One more is that survival probability of individuals with unemployment insurance in rural area is more than without insurance. People who are the only unemployed person in their family have more chance to exit from unemployment spell. So, it seems that balanced development, consistency between university educations and labor market demands and needs, amending the rules of labor market due to reducing the gender gap and age of retirement are effective policies in order to reducing unemployment spells and its negative consequences

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_14160_e0ce706b72d64b0dfbf6fbf7b96e61dc.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 The Survey of Exogenous and Endogenous nature of Liquidity in Iran economy The Survey of Exogenous and Endogenous nature of Liquidity in Iran economy 127 160 13622 10.22034/ecoj.2021.46454.2898 FA Elnaz Bagherpour Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Allameh Tabataba'i Abbas Shakeri professor of Economics, University of Allameh Tabataba'i Journal Article 2021 06 10 The main purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of the mechanism of creating liquidity in Iran economy using quarterly data during the years 1983: 2 to 2020: 3 through empirical evaluation of the two main monetary theories endogenous money theory, Post-Keynesian theory, and exogenous money theory, monetarist. Granger causality and co-accumulation tests have been used in most experimental studies to diagnose the endogenous and exogenous nature of liquidity, but due to some limitations of the co-accumulation model, Christoph and Cyril (2020) suggest an alternative test based on the concept of endogenous econometrics. Therefore, in order to compare and identify the nature of liquidity in the Iranian economy, first the model in the present study is based on the co-integration test and then according to the mentioned limitations, the instrumental regression method is used. Empirical evidence confirms the endogenous of liquidity in the period 1983: 2 to 2020:4 (before the privatization of banks), but between the years 2001: 1 to 2020: 3 the results indicate that 1) The nature of liquidity in this period is endogenous, and 2) the views of structuralists and the endogenous liquidity preferences of post-Keynesian money are endorsed. Accordingly, the endogenous of liquidity in the period 2001: 1 to 2020: 3 shows that in addition to the central bank, banks also have the ability to create and create liquidity in the economy. The main purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of the mechanism of creating liquidity in Iran economy using quarterly data during the years 1983: 2 to 2020: 3 through empirical evaluation of the two main monetary theories endogenous money theory, Post-Keynesian theory, and exogenous money theory, monetarist. Granger causality and co-accumulation tests have been used in most experimental studies to diagnose the endogenous and exogenous nature of liquidity, but due to some limitations of the co-accumulation model, Christoph and Cyril (2020) suggest an alternative test based on the concept of endogenous econometrics. Therefore, in order to compare and identify the nature of liquidity in the Iranian economy, first the model in the present study is based on the co-integration test and then according to the mentioned limitations, the instrumental regression method is used. Empirical evidence confirms the endogenous of liquidity in the period 1983: 2 to 2020:4 (before the privatization of banks), but between the years 2001: 1 to 2020: 3 the results indicate that 1) The nature of liquidity in this period is endogenous, and 2) the views of structuralists and the endogenous liquidity preferences of post-Keynesian money are endorsed. Accordingly, the endogenous of liquidity in the period 2001: 1 to 2020: 3 shows that in addition to the central bank, banks also have the ability to create and create liquidity in the economy.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_13622_64bf9d9f69b834833e75b89007fe7f40.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 The Impact of Nonliner of Government Public Expenditures on Social Welfare (NARDL Approach) The Impact of Nonliner of Government Public Expenditures on Social Welfare (NARDL Approach) 161 200 14320 10.22034/ecoj.2022.47764.2928 FA Narges Ahmadvand Department of Economics, Lorestan University Mohammad Alizadeh Associate Professor of Economics, Lorestan University Mohammad Hassan Fotros Professor of Bu Ali sina Univesity Mahbobeh Delfan Assistant Professor of lorestan university Journal Article 2021 09 04 The government tasks in regard to justice and increase social welfare is offering services and public finance, maintain order through enforce laws and good governance in the regulation of relations between governmental and public relations together with the help of the judicial system. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of government spending on public affairs and related chapters, including: legislation, public services, judiciary, financial services and science development on the Amartya Sen social welfare index during business cycles in the Iranian economy. In this regard, the nonlinear self-explanatory model with wide intervals (NARDL) has been used to estimate time series data during the period of 1973-2019. The results show that in Iran, the positive shock of government spending in the science, legislative and public development chapters during business cycles has increased social welfare and in the judicial season decreased social welfare. The negative shock of government expenditures in public affairs and legislative, public and financial services chapters during business cycles and judicial chapter in recesion periods have significantly increased social welfare, significantly. Also, the negative shock of government expenditures in the science development chapter during recesion and boom, respectively, has increased and decreased Social welfare significantly. Thus, government Expenditure on public affairs and related sub-chapters during business cycles has had asymmetric effects on social welfare. The government tasks in regard to justice and increase social welfare is offering services and public finance, maintain order through enforce laws and good governance in the regulation of relations between governmental and public relations together with the help of the judicial system. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of government spending on public affairs and related chapters, including: legislation, public services, judiciary, financial services and science development on the Amartya Sen social welfare index during business cycles in the Iranian economy. In this regard, the nonlinear self-explanatory model with wide intervals (NARDL) has been used to estimate time series data during the period of 1973-2019. The results show that in Iran, the positive shock of government spending in the science, legislative and public development chapters during business cycles has increased social welfare and in the judicial season decreased social welfare. The negative shock of government expenditures in public affairs and legislative, public and financial services chapters during business cycles and judicial chapter in recesion periods have significantly increased social welfare, significantly. Also, the negative shock of government expenditures in the science development chapter during recesion and boom, respectively, has increased and decreased Social welfare significantly. Thus, government Expenditure on public affairs and related sub-chapters during business cycles has had asymmetric effects on social welfare.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_14320_f708313e67692ef3e42fd174754f6bff.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Estimating the Rebound Effect of Heavy and Light Industries in Iran with Increasing Endogenous Energy Efficiency Estimating the Rebound Effect of Heavy and Light Industries in Iran with Increasing Endogenous Energy Efficiency 201 224 14328 10.22034/ecoj.2022.48641.2959 FA Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi Assistance Professor of Economics, University of Alzahra Mohammad Sayadi Assistance Professor of Economics, University of Kharazm Journal Article 2021 10 26 One of the biggest challenges of Iran's economy is high-energy consumption along with high-energy intensity. Improving energy efficiency as a non-price tool is one of the most important ways to deal with above phenomenon, but rebound effect is an economic event whose presence causes a complete or incomplete reduction of expected reserves due to improved energy efficiency. Estimating rebound effect, in addition to having economic justifications, can also help economic policymakers to make informed decisions. In the present paper, by endogenous modeling of energy efficiency improvement, rebound effect of the Iran's industrial (manufacturing) activities by heavy and light industries for period 1374-1398 was estimated. The results show that average rebound effect of heavy industries in period under study is equal to 3.127 percent and the same figure in same period for light industries is equal to 1.711 percent. It is noteworthy that the share of output component of rebound effect for both heavy and light industries is higher than the share of substitution component and is equal to 79.6% and 93.4%, respectively. One of the biggest challenges of Iran's economy is high-energy consumption along with high-energy intensity. Improving energy efficiency as a non-price tool is one of the most important ways to deal with above phenomenon, but rebound effect is an economic event whose presence causes a complete or incomplete reduction of expected reserves due to improved energy efficiency. Estimating rebound effect, in addition to having economic justifications, can also help economic policymakers to make informed decisions. In the present paper, by endogenous modeling of energy efficiency improvement, rebound effect of the Iran's industrial (manufacturing) activities by heavy and light industries for period 1374-1398 was estimated. The results show that average rebound effect of heavy industries in period under study is equal to 3.127 percent and the same figure in same period for light industries is equal to 1.711 percent. It is noteworthy that the share of output component of rebound effect for both heavy and light industries is higher than the share of substitution component and is equal to 79.6% and 93.4%, respectively.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_14328_847ca5c3941de433bdf15bad8505d779.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Investigating the Causality between Economic Growth and Financial Inclusion: An Application of Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test Investigating the Causality between Economic Growth and Financial Inclusion: An Application of Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test 225 252 14345 10.22034/ecoj.2022.49311.2985 FA Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri Assistant Professor of Economics, Economic Affairs Research Institute, Tehran Shaghayeh Shajari Ph.D in Financial Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University Journal Article 2021 12 06 One of the issues that has attracted the attention of financial institutions, policymakers and researchers worldwide in recent years is the issue of financial inclusion. This is due to the vital role that financial inclusion can play in boosting economic growth, reducing poverty and inequality and improving the welfare of communities. Therefore, in this study, the causal relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion was examined. For this purpose, in the first step, the required index for financial inclusion is calculated using the multidimensional index for the ECO Countries over the period 2004-2018. then utilizing the Bootstrap Granger causality test, the issue was examined. The results show that in Iran, there is a two-way relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion. In Azerbaijan, the cause of economic growth is financial inclusion while in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Turkey, financial inclusion is the cause of economic growth One of the issues that has attracted the attention of financial institutions, policymakers and researchers worldwide in recent years is the issue of financial inclusion. This is due to the vital role that financial inclusion can play in boosting economic growth, reducing poverty and inequality and improving the welfare of communities. Therefore, in this study, the causal relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion was examined. For this purpose, in the first step, the required index for financial inclusion is calculated using the multidimensional index for the ECO Countries over the period 2004-2018. then utilizing the Bootstrap Granger causality test, the issue was examined. The results show that in Iran, there is a two-way relationship between economic growth and financial inclusion. In Azerbaijan, the cause of economic growth is financial inclusion while in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Turkey, financial inclusion is the cause of economic growth

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_14345_d532f4c60aae085fae2b2210c915385a.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Optimization of Stock Portfolio Selection in Iran Capital Market Using Meta-heuristic Algorithms Optimization of Stock Portfolio Selection in Iran Capital Market Using Meta-heuristic Algorithms 253 284 14359 10.22034/ecoj.2022.47049.2913 FA Sobhan Mostafayi Darmian Department of Industrial Engineering, Kurdestan University, Kurdestan, Iran Meysam Doaei Department of Finance, Esfarayen Branch, Islamic Azad University, Esfarayen, Iran Journal Article 2021 07 18 The purpose of this study is to optimize the portfolio in companies listed on the Iran capital market (Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Farabours) as a multi-objective optimization problem. The first objective function includes risk minimization and the second objective function includes return maximization. The limitations of the model include the limitation of selecting companies individually as well as the limitation of budget. In order to solve the problem, two genetic metaheuristic algorithms and a gray wolf have been developed, which are analyzed using numerical examples taken from 491 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Iran Farabours market from April 26, 2016 to December 21, 2022 were subjected to numerical analysis. According to the numerical results, it can be seen that the gray wolf algorithm has a higher efficiency than the genetic algorithm in all examples. It is noteworthy, however, that in none of the numerical examples did the percentage of unwarranted responses in the algorithm improvement procedure exceed 10.2%. Also, the percentage improvement of the gray wolf algorithm compared to the genetic algorithm is reported to be between 3 and 11%. The purpose of this study is to optimize the portfolio in companies listed on the Iran capital market (Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Farabours) as a multi-objective optimization problem. The first objective function includes risk minimization and the second objective function includes return maximization. The limitations of the model include the limitation of selecting companies individually as well as the limitation of budget. In order to solve the problem, two genetic metaheuristic algorithms and a gray wolf have been developed, which are analyzed using numerical examples taken from 491 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and the Iran Farabours market from April 26, 2016 to December 21, 2022 were subjected to numerical analysis. According to the numerical results, it can be seen that the gray wolf algorithm has a higher efficiency than the genetic algorithm in all examples. It is noteworthy, however, that in none of the numerical examples did the percentage of unwarranted responses in the algorithm improvement procedure exceed 10.2%. Also, the percentage improvement of the gray wolf algorithm compared to the genetic algorithm is reported to be between 3 and 11%.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_14359_a39fa5b5b2c00da9fe4dda1753041f19.pdf

University of Tabriz Applied Theories of Economics 2423-6586 8 4 2022 02 20 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)Analysis of the Effects of Rising of Payroll Tax Rate in Iran Economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)Analysis of the Effects of Rising of Payroll Tax Rate in Iran Economy 285 318 14391 10.22034/ecoj.2022.48374.2950 FA Ahmad Chehreghani Phd of economics from Shahid Chamran university of Ahwaz Journal Article 2021 10 18 The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic effects of rising of payroll tax rate in Iran economy. For this purpose, the Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) has been used. Data are taken from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliamentary Research Center in 2015, which is the latest SAM in Iran. The data are analyzed in the form of standard computable general equilibrium model (CGE) by Lafgren et al. (2002) using GAMS software. The policy analysis has been done in the form of three scenarios of 5%, 10% and 15% increase in the payroll tax rate. The results show that increasing the payroll tax rate, increases the level of wages, reduces the level of employment, increases inflation, reduces GDP, increases government revenues and expenditures, reduces household expenditures and increases total absorption. Based on the above results, it is suggested that the government refrain from raising the payroll tax rate in the current condition of the Iran economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic effects of rising of payroll tax rate in Iran economy. For this purpose, the Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) has been used. Data are taken from the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran in 2011, prepared by the Parliamentary Research Center in 2015, which is the latest SAM in Iran. The data are analyzed in the form of standard computable general equilibrium model (CGE) by Lafgren et al. (2002) using GAMS software. The policy analysis has been done in the form of three scenarios of 5%, 10% and 15% increase in the payroll tax rate. The results show that increasing the payroll tax rate, increases the level of wages, reduces the level of employment, increases inflation, reduces GDP, increases government revenues and expenditures, reduces household expenditures and increases total absorption. Based on the above results, it is suggested that the government refrain from raising the payroll tax rate in the current condition of the Iran economy.

https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_14391_96261aa7004ba056e9772ec70aeeb48e.pdf