University of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Predicting the Impact of Climate Conditions on the Economic Production of Iranian Provinces
with The Approach of Random Forest AlgorithmPredicting the Impact of Climate Conditions on the Economic Production of Iranian Provinces
with The Approach of Random Forest Algorithm1341809810.22034/ecoj.2024.60935.3292FALotfaliAzariPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadAliakbarNaji MeidaniAssociate Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadNargesSalehniaAssociate Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadJournal Article20240316Climate change is among the vital phenomena related to human societies, and its consequences have been demonstrated, particularly in recent decades, with varying intensity in many regions of the world. The importance of climate as one of the fundamental aspects of human life has never been as significant as it is today in macroeconomic and social issues. Analyzing climate change's economic impacts necessitates precise national and local analyses. Although numerous global studies examine the economic effects of climate change, limited research has been conducted at local levels within countries, especially concerning Iran. This article attempts to provide a comprehensive analysis of the susceptibility of the country's provincial economic production to climate change by utilizing a new dataset of weather conditions in the provinces from 2000 to 2020 through the random forest algorithm of machine learning subsets. Studies indicate a significant relationship between weather and sectors beyond agriculture, forestry, food security, tourism, health, fisheries, livestock, mining, and energy. Weather conditions can directly or indirectly impact various economic sectors, and their effect on economic activities is inevitable. However, research results regarding the impact of weather fluctuations face varied findings. Drought, with a higher recurrence than floods, poses more significant challenges to the economy on scales beyond local levels.Climate change is among the vital phenomena related to human societies, and its consequences have been demonstrated, particularly in recent decades, with varying intensity in many regions of the world. The importance of climate as one of the fundamental aspects of human life has never been as significant as it is today in macroeconomic and social issues. Analyzing climate change's economic impacts necessitates precise national and local analyses. Although numerous global studies examine the economic effects of climate change, limited research has been conducted at local levels within countries, especially concerning Iran. This article attempts to provide a comprehensive analysis of the susceptibility of the country's provincial economic production to climate change by utilizing a new dataset of weather conditions in the provinces from 2000 to 2020 through the random forest algorithm of machine learning subsets. Studies indicate a significant relationship between weather and sectors beyond agriculture, forestry, food security, tourism, health, fisheries, livestock, mining, and energy. Weather conditions can directly or indirectly impact various economic sectors, and their effect on economic activities is inevitable. However, research results regarding the impact of weather fluctuations face varied findings. Drought, with a higher recurrence than floods, poses more significant challenges to the economy on scales beyond local levels.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18098_be0891e115769c727cfe72e46bcd3c7c.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Comparison of the Effects of Political Decisions in the United Nations General Assembly and Economic Decisions on the Attraction of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing CountriesComparison of the Effects of Political Decisions in the United Nations General Assembly and Economic Decisions on the Attraction of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries35621826710.22034/ecoj.2024.61604.3307FAMohammadhosseinPeyroviPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, IranRahmanSaadatAssociate Professor in Economics Dept. of Economics, Faculty of Economics Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, IranSeyedKomeilTayebiProfessor, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, IranJournal Article20240515This statement that "capital is the most important driving force for growth and subsequent economic development in countries" can be considered universally accepted by all economists (regardless of economic school of thought). As a result, all models of growth and economic development have been developed based on the accumulation of capital. Therefore, this question arises: How is it possible to strengthen the production structure and apply advanced technologies in countries that are facing a lack of capital? In this regard, researchers have shown great interest in foreign direct investment as a cover for the lack of capital in countries. Foreign direct investment is a type of investment that includes long-term relationships in which an economic unit in one country controls and benefits from a business unit in another country. Various studies indicate that successful countries in attracting FDI can provide the necessary conditions for positive future for multinational companies (as the most important players in the field of foreign direct investment). Furthermore, one of the main motivations for developing countries to attract foreign direct investment is mentioned as transferring and acquiring the necessary technologies to improve the productivity of domestic enterprises.
However, what leads to the attraction of this type of investment in developing countries (as the main applicants for capital and technological inputs) has always been a challenging issue. Some thinkers mainly focus on economic variables (such as economic openness, infrastructure availability, developed financial markets, etc.), while others do not find them sufficient and rely on non-economic factors, mainly derived from political science and international relations. According to them, the economic actions of individuals and companies are influenced by international political alignments, and therefore achieving economic development is only possible within this framework. This issue has become important in recent years with the popularization of the use of sanctions (meaning the use of economic tools to change the political behavior of a country) among the great economic powers.This statement that "capital is the most important driving force for growth and subsequent economic development in countries" can be considered universally accepted by all economists (regardless of economic school of thought). As a result, all models of growth and economic development have been developed based on the accumulation of capital. Therefore, this question arises: How is it possible to strengthen the production structure and apply advanced technologies in countries that are facing a lack of capital? In this regard, researchers have shown great interest in foreign direct investment as a cover for the lack of capital in countries. Foreign direct investment is a type of investment that includes long-term relationships in which an economic unit in one country controls and benefits from a business unit in another country. Various studies indicate that successful countries in attracting FDI can provide the necessary conditions for positive future for multinational companies (as the most important players in the field of foreign direct investment). Furthermore, one of the main motivations for developing countries to attract foreign direct investment is mentioned as transferring and acquiring the necessary technologies to improve the productivity of domestic enterprises.
However, what leads to the attraction of this type of investment in developing countries (as the main applicants for capital and technological inputs) has always been a challenging issue. Some thinkers mainly focus on economic variables (such as economic openness, infrastructure availability, developed financial markets, etc.), while others do not find them sufficient and rely on non-economic factors, mainly derived from political science and international relations. According to them, the economic actions of individuals and companies are influenced by international political alignments, and therefore achieving economic development is only possible within this framework. This issue has become important in recent years with the popularization of the use of sanctions (meaning the use of economic tools to change the political behavior of a country) among the great economic powers.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18267_245d4a8be5c6440d26e912433bf5a75d.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Investigating the Spillover of Trade Partners' Uncertainty on Iran's Trade: GVAR ApproachInvestigating the Spillover of Trade Partners' Uncertainty on Iran's Trade: GVAR Approach63961826810.22034/ecoj.2024.59209.3252FAZahraGolmohammadi TarzamPh.D. Candidate in Economics, University of TabrizBehzadSalmaniProfessor of Economics, University of TabrizMohammad MahdiBarghi OskoueiAssociate Professor of Economics, University of TabrizJournal Article20231113This article mainly investigates the spillover effects of trade partners' uncertainty on the amount of Iran's exports and imports from 2000 to 2020. In this regard, the GVAR global vector autoregression model has been used to show the simultaneous impact of multi-country shocks and global shocks. The results of this research show that the value of Iran's exports and imports reacts negatively to uncertainty shocks from major trading partners, so the three countries (China, India, and Turkey) have the most negative spillover on Iran's trade value. The results also showed that the uncertainty of the following five trading partners (United Arab Emirates, Russia, South Korea, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland) does not have a significant spillover on Iran's trade. At the same time, Iran's exports and imports reacted negatively to the increase in Iran's internal uncertainty. Hence, public and private policymakers should expand their trade relations to develop exports and reduce the effects of other countries' uncertainty.This article mainly investigates the spillover effects of trade partners' uncertainty on the amount of Iran's exports and imports from 2000 to 2020. In this regard, the GVAR global vector autoregression model has been used to show the simultaneous impact of multi-country shocks and global shocks. The results of this research show that the value of Iran's exports and imports reacts negatively to uncertainty shocks from major trading partners, so the three countries (China, India, and Turkey) have the most negative spillover on Iran's trade value. The results also showed that the uncertainty of the following five trading partners (United Arab Emirates, Russia, South Korea, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland) does not have a significant spillover on Iran's trade. At the same time, Iran's exports and imports reacted negatively to the increase in Iran's internal uncertainty. Hence, public and private policymakers should expand their trade relations to develop exports and reduce the effects of other countries' uncertainty.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18268_0f65405f9f70d5156cb1bc956981e60a.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Investigating the Impact of Logistics Performance on the Sustainable Development of Emerging Countries: a Spatial ApproachInvestigating the Impact of Logistics Performance on the Sustainable Development of Emerging Countries: a Spatial Approach971341833710.22034/ecoj.2024.61683.3311FAHaithamMezaal AlagPhD student in Economic Development, Urmia UniversityYousefMohammadzadehAssociate Professor, Urmia UniversitySamadHekmati FaridAssociate Professor, Urmia UniversityJournal Article20240516In recent decades, the logistics performance of countries to achieve sustainable development has received serious attention. Creating trade corridors and improving transportation infrastructure have been among the important goals of some countries in recent years, which will determine the geography of development in the coming years and will face some other countries with the challenge of economic isolation. This study has investigated the role of logistics performance on sustainable development (which is a composite index indicating the development of countries in various fields) in emerging countries, including Iran, with the tool of econometric knowledge. The present study has been carried out with a space panel approach (two methods, SDM and SAR) to consider the spatial effects of the variables on neighboring countries. The results indicate that the performance of logistics in both models has a positive effect on the sustainable development of countries. Also, the improvement of logistics performance has positively affected the sustainable development of neighboring countries. Therefore, this study’s serious recommendations are joint ventures to improve commercial and transportation infrastructure, such as creating various commercial corridors. Based on this study, economic freedom, good governance, increasing the share of education and health sector expenditures have positively effected on sustainable development. In addition, population density and abundance of natural resources have negatively affected sustainable developmentIn recent decades, the logistics performance of countries to achieve sustainable development has received serious attention. Creating trade corridors and improving transportation infrastructure have been among the important goals of some countries in recent years, which will determine the geography of development in the coming years and will face some other countries with the challenge of economic isolation. This study has investigated the role of logistics performance on sustainable development (which is a composite index indicating the development of countries in various fields) in emerging countries, including Iran, with the tool of econometric knowledge. The present study has been carried out with a space panel approach (two methods, SDM and SAR) to consider the spatial effects of the variables on neighboring countries. The results indicate that the performance of logistics in both models has a positive effect on the sustainable development of countries. Also, the improvement of logistics performance has positively affected the sustainable development of neighboring countries. Therefore, this study’s serious recommendations are joint ventures to improve commercial and transportation infrastructure, such as creating various commercial corridors. Based on this study, economic freedom, good governance, increasing the share of education and health sector expenditures have positively effected on sustainable development. In addition, population density and abundance of natural resources have negatively affected sustainable developmenthttps://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18337_2bc8aa662bcbff409f9630172de40fcf.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Investigating the Functions of Blockchain Technology in Improving the Corporate Governance of Listed CompaniesInvestigating the Functions of Blockchain Technology in Improving the Corporate Governance of Listed Companies1351661840310.22034/ecoj.2024.60839.3290FAVahidAhmadianAssistant Professor, Department of Economics, Management and Accounting, University of TabrizRoghayehNamvarMaster of Business Administration, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, University of TabrizJournal Article20240312Technological advances indicate a new era of analysis and data-driven decision-making in capital markets. Blockchain, which is the main technology of digital currency markets, is being introduced as a disruptive technology, especially in the stock market. Today, there is a broad consensus among the majority of stock market actors about the significant power of blockchain technology in the position of a new approach to managing and exchanging data in financial markets, and especially maintaining reliable and transparent data records in stock markets, considering the huge volume of transactions that are carried out in them. has it. On the other hand, the two main factors that cause representation problems in the corporate governance of traditional stock exchanges are the difference in the interests of investors and representatives and the complexity of the investment chain. The purpose of this study is to investigate the benefits of implementing blockchain technology as a basis for stock transactions in order to improve the corporate governance of publishers through a two-stage review consisting of a systematic review and an online Delphi. The findings of the research show that compared to traditional stock trading systems, blockchain technology has several advantages, including high transparency of information, improvement of stock liquidity, high monitoring by different parties, availability of real-time information, reduction of price divergence from stock value, provision of accounting comparability. And it is preventing profit management, the final output of which will be the creation of better corporate governance. The implementation of blockchain technology will be able to reduce the information asymmetry in the relationship between the manager and the owner, which in turn can improve the quality of corporate governance due to transparency, accountability and high trust between all parties involved in the networkTechnological advances indicate a new era of analysis and data-driven decision-making in capital markets. Blockchain, which is the main technology of digital currency markets, is being introduced as a disruptive technology, especially in the stock market. Today, there is a broad consensus among the majority of stock market actors about the significant power of blockchain technology in the position of a new approach to managing and exchanging data in financial markets, and especially maintaining reliable and transparent data records in stock markets, considering the huge volume of transactions that are carried out in them. has it. On the other hand, the two main factors that cause representation problems in the corporate governance of traditional stock exchanges are the difference in the interests of investors and representatives and the complexity of the investment chain. The purpose of this study is to investigate the benefits of implementing blockchain technology as a basis for stock transactions in order to improve the corporate governance of publishers through a two-stage review consisting of a systematic review and an online Delphi. The findings of the research show that compared to traditional stock trading systems, blockchain technology has several advantages, including high transparency of information, improvement of stock liquidity, high monitoring by different parties, availability of real-time information, reduction of price divergence from stock value, provision of accounting comparability. And it is preventing profit management, the final output of which will be the creation of better corporate governance. The implementation of blockchain technology will be able to reduce the information asymmetry in the relationship between the manager and the owner, which in turn can improve the quality of corporate governance due to transparency, accountability and high trust between all parties involved in the networkhttps://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18403_6ee23ceaa669b5fc635f3fe0c07f8541.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Introduction Determining the optimal portfolio of bank facilities with the Markowitz approach and meta-heuristic algorithms (Case study of Sina Bank)Introduction Determining the optimal portfolio of bank facilities with the Markowitz approach and meta-heuristic algorithms (Case study of Sina Bank)1671981845010.22034/ecoj.2024.62121.3320FAImanDadfarDepartment of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.RoyaSeyfipourDepartment of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, IranAzadehMehrabianDepartment of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, IranNarcissAminrashtiDepartment of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.Journal Article20240616Banks face credit risk in the process of providing facilities based on the amount of resources provided. In the meantime, facility portfolio management can be effective in reducing credit risk by optimally allocating resources to economic sectors. In this research, the portfolio of Sina Bank's facilities is determined by using the Markowitz modern portfolio model and meta-heuristic algorithms of genetics and firefly. Comparing the performance of the models indicates the greatest efficiency of the genetic algorithm model in optimizing the bank's facilities portfolio. the results of the estimation of this model show that the service & commercial, housing & construction sectors have the largest share in the optimal portfolio of the bank's facilities. Industry & mining, agriculture & water sectors are considered risky assets of Sina Bank. the process of granting facilities has not been optimal. To reduce the credit risk of that bank's facilities, 52.4% should be allocated to the service & commercial sector, 40.7% to the housing & construction sector, 3.5% to the industry & mining sector, 3.4% to be allocated to agriculture & water sector.Banks face credit risk in the process of providing facilities based on the amount of resources provided. In the meantime, facility portfolio management can be effective in reducing credit risk by optimally allocating resources to economic sectors. In this research, the portfolio of Sina Bank's facilities is determined by using the Markowitz modern portfolio model and meta-heuristic algorithms of genetics and firefly. Comparing the performance of the models indicates the greatest efficiency of the genetic algorithm model in optimizing the bank's facilities portfolio. the results of the estimation of this model show that the service & commercial, housing & construction sectors have the largest share in the optimal portfolio of the bank's facilities. Industry & mining, agriculture & water sectors are considered risky assets of Sina Bank. the process of granting facilities has not been optimal. To reduce the credit risk of that bank's facilities, 52.4% should be allocated to the service & commercial sector, 40.7% to the housing & construction sector, 3.5% to the industry & mining sector, 3.4% to be allocated to agriculture & water sector.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18450_11246e95aebec2b00f65c741716305cb.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822New Evidence of Non-Linear Effects of Economic Globalization on Economic WelfareNew Evidence of Non-Linear Effects of Economic Globalization on Economic Welfare1992481847210.22034/ecoj.2024.61998.3319FAAnisehAminiBachelor's degree M.Sc. Student in Economics, University of KurdistanSamanGhaderiAssistant Professor of Economics, University of KurdistanKhaledAhmadzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, University of KurdistanJournal Article20240609Examining the state of countries' welfare requires indicators that adequately show the well-being of people's lives. One of the indicators that can affect this issue is the economic welfare index provided by the Sustainable Society Foundation. In this research, the impact of economic globalization on the economic well-being of developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2020 was investigated using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method. The results show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the research variables. Also, for developed and developing countries, two transfer functions and two thresholds representing a three-regime model were chosen as the optimal model. For developed countries, the speed of adjustment, i.e., the transition from the linear regime to the intermediate regime, is carried out much faster than the transition from the intermediate regime to the third limit regime. Also, for developing countries, the regime transition is done at a moderate speed in all three regimes, but the transition from the first regime to the middle regime is faster than the transition from the middle regime to the third regime. Economic globalization in developed countries has a negative effect on economic well-being in the first limit regime and a positive effect in the second and third limit regimes. While in developing countries, economic globalization has a positive effect on economic well-being in all three regimes. Considering the different effects of economic globalization on the welfare of countries, economic policies should be designed to take advantage of the positive opportunities of globalization in developed and developing countries and accelerate the transition to more favorable regimes. Especially in developing countries, strengthening infrastructure and upgrading economic capacities can help to benefit more from the benefits of globalizationExamining the state of countries' welfare requires indicators that adequately show the well-being of people's lives. One of the indicators that can affect this issue is the economic welfare index provided by the Sustainable Society Foundation. In this research, the impact of economic globalization on the economic well-being of developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2020 was investigated using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method. The results show the existence of a non-linear relationship between the research variables. Also, for developed and developing countries, two transfer functions and two thresholds representing a three-regime model were chosen as the optimal model. For developed countries, the speed of adjustment, i.e., the transition from the linear regime to the intermediate regime, is carried out much faster than the transition from the intermediate regime to the third limit regime. Also, for developing countries, the regime transition is done at a moderate speed in all three regimes, but the transition from the first regime to the middle regime is faster than the transition from the middle regime to the third regime. Economic globalization in developed countries has a negative effect on economic well-being in the first limit regime and a positive effect in the second and third limit regimes. While in developing countries, economic globalization has a positive effect on economic well-being in all three regimes. Considering the different effects of economic globalization on the welfare of countries, economic policies should be designed to take advantage of the positive opportunities of globalization in developed and developing countries and accelerate the transition to more favorable regimes. Especially in developing countries, strengthening infrastructure and upgrading economic capacities can help to benefit more from the benefits of globalizationhttps://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18472_8e8a5850631d040ae6a380c61a3afb54.pdfUniversity of TabrizApplied Theories of Economics2423-658611220240822Presenting a Model to Determine the Equilibrium in an Electricity Oligopoly with Strategic Investment Decisions: a Case StudyPresenting a Model to Determine the Equilibrium in an Electricity Oligopoly with Strategic Investment Decisions: a Case Study2492801845110.22034/ecoj.2024.56013.3178FARezaBasiriDepartment of Management ,Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, IranMansourAbedianDepartment of Industrial Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, IranSaeedAghsiDepartment of Management ,Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, IranZahraDashtaaliDepartment of Management , Dehaghan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dehaghan, IranJournal Article20230402The purpose of this paper is to use optimization and equilibrium models to study the behavior of electricity producers in a multilateral oligopoly market with a competitive margin in which all producers have investment decisions. Modern wholesale electricity markets often have producers who exercise market power. The standard method for modeling market power in a monopoly with a competitive fringe is to use Mixed Complementarity Problems (MCPs) and conjecture variations. However, such models<strong> </strong>can lead to near-optimal behavior for monopolists. To solve this problem, we develop an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints to model an electricity market structure. It is modeled in the equilibrium of two types of players. Price-maker companies, which have market power, and price-taking companies, which do not have the power to impose prices on the market. The proposed model finds multiple equilibrium for firms' investment and profit decisions. The model was simulated for 2 price-setting electricity companies and 2 price-setting electricity companies in Iran. This research was done in 2022. In this article, the power companies of Isfahan and Boushehr provinces, which also have power plants, are considered as price takers, and the power companies of Khouzestan and Hormozgan provinces are considered as price takers. The presented model shows how it may be optimal for price-making companies to accept losses in some periods in order to prevent more investment of price-taking companies in the market.The purpose of this paper is to use optimization and equilibrium models to study the behavior of electricity producers in a multilateral oligopoly market with a competitive margin in which all producers have investment decisions. Modern wholesale electricity markets often have producers who exercise market power. The standard method for modeling market power in a monopoly with a competitive fringe is to use Mixed Complementarity Problems (MCPs) and conjecture variations. However, such models<strong> </strong>can lead to near-optimal behavior for monopolists. To solve this problem, we develop an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints to model an electricity market structure. It is modeled in the equilibrium of two types of players. Price-maker companies, which have market power, and price-taking companies, which do not have the power to impose prices on the market. The proposed model finds multiple equilibrium for firms' investment and profit decisions. The model was simulated for 2 price-setting electricity companies and 2 price-setting electricity companies in Iran. This research was done in 2022. In this article, the power companies of Isfahan and Boushehr provinces, which also have power plants, are considered as price takers, and the power companies of Khouzestan and Hormozgan provinces are considered as price takers. The presented model shows how it may be optimal for price-making companies to accept losses in some periods in order to prevent more investment of price-taking companies in the market.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_18451_8e25484391cf89115abea1df84f6d2fd.pdf