University of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421The Impact of Oil Shocks on Foreign Trade in Iran: The Role of Inflation Targeting PolicyThe Impact of Oil Shocks on Foreign Trade in Iran: The Role of Inflation Targeting Policy1286095FAMehdiBehrad-AminPhd Candidate in Economics, University of Sistan and BaluchestanGholamrezaZamanianAssociate Professor of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan0000000308234584MarziyehEsfandiyariAssistant Professor of Economics, University of Sistan and Baluchestan0000-0003-3704-6240Journal Article20170509In this paper, we evaluate the effect of inflation targeting policy in absorption and reduce the negative impacts of oil shocks on foreign trade. In this regard, in order to evaluate the impact of this policy on the economy of Iran, we used a modified New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework for a small open economy. We estimate the model using Bayesian approach over the period 1989-2014. The results of the simulation model variables indicate that inflation targeting policy in relation to the failure to adopt this policy, has been reduced the severity and duration of negative effects of oil revenues shock. This policy has been quite successful in controlling inflation and the severity of the decline in exports and increase in imports is reduced in case of shock. Also, in the inflation targeting regime, the decline in non-oil production and total production after the shock has been less severe.In this paper, we evaluate the effect of inflation targeting policy in absorption and reduce the negative impacts of oil shocks on foreign trade. In this regard, in order to evaluate the impact of this policy on the economy of Iran, we used a modified New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework for a small open economy. We estimate the model using Bayesian approach over the period 1989-2014. The results of the simulation model variables indicate that inflation targeting policy in relation to the failure to adopt this policy, has been reduced the severity and duration of negative effects of oil revenues shock. This policy has been quite successful in controlling inflation and the severity of the decline in exports and increase in imports is reduced in case of shock. Also, in the inflation targeting regime, the decline in non-oil production and total production after the shock has been less severe.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6095_adf0d136842d3d95e46ba9da8ed9fd8c.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421Inflation Targeting and Nominal GDP Targeting in Monetary Rules for Iran EconomyInflation Targeting and Nominal GDP Targeting in Monetary Rules for Iran Economy29586102FANedaBayatPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityJavidBahramiAssistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityTeymourMohammadiAssociate Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai UniversityJournal Article20170510At present, conducting monetary policies to achieve the central bank's goals is an important problem among policymakers. However most of central banks have used inflation targeting regime, there is a challenging discussion that it should be replaced with nominal GDP targeting. This paper simulates two alternative monetary policy rules, Taylor rule and money growth rate rule, in new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models for Iran economy (1988–2014). Further, it compares the monetary policy regimes: inflation targeting and nominal GDP targeting for each rule. However, neither of these rules has been applied to Iran monetary policy yet, the parameters of the rules are determined in which the moments of simulations approximately equal to the moments of real economy. Analyzing the moments of simulated parameters and comparing them with the real world’s data demonstrate that the presented models are properly matched with both theoretical principles and Iran economy. The results show that interest rate is proper than the money growth rate for affecting the economic real sector variables. Also, in case of applying Taylor rule for monetary policy, NGDP targeting creates more stability on these variables and Inflation targeting creates more stability on inflation.At present, conducting monetary policies to achieve the central bank's goals is an important problem among policymakers. However most of central banks have used inflation targeting regime, there is a challenging discussion that it should be replaced with nominal GDP targeting. This paper simulates two alternative monetary policy rules, Taylor rule and money growth rate rule, in new Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models for Iran economy (1988–2014). Further, it compares the monetary policy regimes: inflation targeting and nominal GDP targeting for each rule. However, neither of these rules has been applied to Iran monetary policy yet, the parameters of the rules are determined in which the moments of simulations approximately equal to the moments of real economy. Analyzing the moments of simulated parameters and comparing them with the real world’s data demonstrate that the presented models are properly matched with both theoretical principles and Iran economy. The results show that interest rate is proper than the money growth rate for affecting the economic real sector variables. Also, in case of applying Taylor rule for monetary policy, NGDP targeting creates more stability on these variables and Inflation targeting creates more stability on inflation.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6102_c93adc597798d76b21cc976149c57421.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421The Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Asset Returns in the Framework of a Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing ModelThe Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Asset Returns in the Framework of a Consumption Based Capital Asset Pricing Model59866105FAJaberBahramiPh.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Sistan and BalochestanMosayebPahlavaniAssociate Professor of Economics, University of Sistan and BalochestanRezaRoshanAssistant Professor of Economics, University of Persian GulfSaeedRasekhiProfessor of Economics, University of MazandaranJournal Article20170514Along with increasing trade between countries, the changes in exchange rate is considered as one of the most important risk factors in the financial markets. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between changes in exchange rates and asset returns in the theoretical and experimental framework of consumption based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). For this purpose, we develop a basic CCAPM model by entry imported consumer goods in the recursive utility function of Epstein and Zin. The sample consisted of eight portfolios monthly data during the period 2003 to 2015. In the first stage, we used Euler equations and the generalized moments method (GMM) of Hansen and Singleton to estimate the parameters of the model, Estimating of the parameters of Euler equations indicate that economic agents are risk-averse and patient, the elasticity of substitution between domestic consumer goods and imported consumer goods is low and the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution is high. In the second stage, using by linear Euler equations as the asset pricing model and two-pass regression method of Fama and MacBeth, we investigated the impact of exchange risk premium, inflation, market returns and domestic consumption growth on the return premium. The results show that the exchange risk premium, inflation and market returns has a positive impact on return premium, This means that economic agents to accept more risk of these variables, apply to the more reward premium will be return on assets.Along with increasing trade between countries, the changes in exchange rate is considered as one of the most important risk factors in the financial markets. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between changes in exchange rates and asset returns in the theoretical and experimental framework of consumption based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). For this purpose, we develop a basic CCAPM model by entry imported consumer goods in the recursive utility function of Epstein and Zin. The sample consisted of eight portfolios monthly data during the period 2003 to 2015. In the first stage, we used Euler equations and the generalized moments method (GMM) of Hansen and Singleton to estimate the parameters of the model, Estimating of the parameters of Euler equations indicate that economic agents are risk-averse and patient, the elasticity of substitution between domestic consumer goods and imported consumer goods is low and the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution is high. In the second stage, using by linear Euler equations as the asset pricing model and two-pass regression method of Fama and MacBeth, we investigated the impact of exchange risk premium, inflation, market returns and domestic consumption growth on the return premium. The results show that the exchange risk premium, inflation and market returns has a positive impact on return premium, This means that economic agents to accept more risk of these variables, apply to the more reward premium will be return on assets.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6105_12f0a3e542417a248497eac79bfab049.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Terms of Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) and Production Sharing Contract (PSC): Case Study of South Azadegan FieldComparative Analysis of Fiscal Terms of Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) and Production Sharing Contract (PSC): Case Study of South Azadegan Field871186108FAHamedSahebhonarPhD Candidate in Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadMohammad RezaLotfalipourProfessor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadMahmoodHooshmandProfessor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadMahdiFeiziAssistant Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of MashhadJournal Article20170515This paper simulates and compares the fiscal terms of Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) and Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for first time. The Scenario approach has been used, in which timing and the volume of investment and production profile are assumed as given and the effects of fiscal parameters of the contract on the key variables such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and take of the contractor are computed. This paper uses the technical and economic information of the South Azadegan field (phase II) as a case study for financial simulation. One of the significant results is the possibility of reaching the same economic and fiscal results regardless of the contract type. Another important result of this article is that the IPC fiscal regime is less flexible and progressive than PSC and is less attractive specifically in more capital intensive fields. The reason of this issue is some restriction in IPC such as amortization of the capital costs and having longer payback period and the lack of direct relation between IOC’s fee and the field revenue. This paper simulates and compares the fiscal terms of Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) and Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for first time. The Scenario approach has been used, in which timing and the volume of investment and production profile are assumed as given and the effects of fiscal parameters of the contract on the key variables such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and take of the contractor are computed. This paper uses the technical and economic information of the South Azadegan field (phase II) as a case study for financial simulation. One of the significant results is the possibility of reaching the same economic and fiscal results regardless of the contract type. Another important result of this article is that the IPC fiscal regime is less flexible and progressive than PSC and is less attractive specifically in more capital intensive fields. The reason of this issue is some restriction in IPC such as amortization of the capital costs and having longer payback period and the lack of direct relation between IOC’s fee and the field revenue. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6108_49bead79bd205ee37dbf71d8198e93bc.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421A Test for Natural Monopoly in Iranian Electricity Distribution Industry: A Panel Random Coefficients Model AnalysisA Test for Natural Monopoly in Iranian Electricity Distribution Industry: A Panel Random Coefficients Model Analysis1191486118FASayed MohamadMirhashemi DehnaviPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Shiraz University,AhmadSadraei JavaheriAssociate Professor of Economics, Shiraz UniversityHosseinMarzbanAssociate Professor of Economics, Shiraz UniversitySayed MortezaMirdehghanAssociate Professor of Mathematics, Shiraz UniversityJournal Article20170517In economics, natural monopoly is described as a situation in which, for structural reasons, only one firm finds it profitable to produce in the market. This Concept is more important and more practical in Industries that faced price and non-price regulation such as water, gas and electricity distribution and telecommunication. In this study natural monopoly structure in Iranian electricity distribution was investigated. To this, a Translog cost function was employed. Relative capital price, relative other input price and customer electricity sales were assumed as input price vector and output, respectively. In order to estimate the second order approximation of Translog cost function, the random coefficient model in panel data and the data of 2004 till 2014 were used. The results showed the existence of natural monopoly in some companies in contrast to other.In economics, natural monopoly is described as a situation in which, for structural reasons, only one firm finds it profitable to produce in the market. This Concept is more important and more practical in Industries that faced price and non-price regulation such as water, gas and electricity distribution and telecommunication. In this study natural monopoly structure in Iranian electricity distribution was investigated. To this, a Translog cost function was employed. Relative capital price, relative other input price and customer electricity sales were assumed as input price vector and output, respectively. In order to estimate the second order approximation of Translog cost function, the random coefficient model in panel data and the data of 2004 till 2014 were used. The results showed the existence of natural monopoly in some companies in contrast to other.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6118_d0397b93b51d899879188263ac3568a0.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421Investigating Effects of Banking and Stock Market Activities on Tax Revenues in IranInvestigating Effects of Banking and Stock Market Activities on Tax Revenues in Iran1491726124FAAhmadAssadzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, University of TabrizYasamanFouman AjirlouM.A Student in Economics, University of TabrizJournal Article20170520Even though, the revenue from the sales of crude oil has accounted for much of the state's revenues, tax revenues, on the other hand contributes to a large and growing share of the government budget. Based on the literature, the financial system has an important influence on economic growth and hence the study of the empirical relationship between financial system and tax revenues is vital and will help policy makers in achieving the objectives of economic growth and reducing the country’s dependence on oil revenues. The purpose of this research is to study the effect of banking and stock market activities on the tax revenues in Iran. In this regard, an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model was used applying seasonal data for 2000-2013 period. The results of the model estimation revealed different effects of banking and stock market activities on the tax revenues.The results indicated that banking and stock market activities had a significant and positive effect on tax revenues.Even though, the revenue from the sales of crude oil has accounted for much of the state's revenues, tax revenues, on the other hand contributes to a large and growing share of the government budget. Based on the literature, the financial system has an important influence on economic growth and hence the study of the empirical relationship between financial system and tax revenues is vital and will help policy makers in achieving the objectives of economic growth and reducing the country’s dependence on oil revenues. The purpose of this research is to study the effect of banking and stock market activities on the tax revenues in Iran. In this regard, an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model was used applying seasonal data for 2000-2013 period. The results of the model estimation revealed different effects of banking and stock market activities on the tax revenues.The results indicated that banking and stock market activities had a significant and positive effect on tax revenues.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6124_695f71f8eab59b97830c54078032181b.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421Learning Intensity and Its Effects on Performance of Iranian Manufacturing IndustriesLearning Intensity and Its Effects on Performance of Iranian Manufacturing Industries1731966132FASamanehNorani AzadAssistent Professor of Economics, Payame Noor UniversityFarhadKhodadad KashiProfessor of Economics, Payame Noor UniversityJournal Article20170521In this paper lerning intensity refers to cost-saving of labor force and productivity growth that associate with experience. This process measured by using learning curve. Moreover, this article sought to examine the effects of learning rate in Iran’s manufacturing industries performance. To meet this ends the data of 130, 4-digit industries over the periods of 1996-2013 were used to identify learning effects and the extent of cost advantage of labor force owing to increased experience. The results indicated that the learning curve in all sub-sectors of industry had a negative slope as expected. Also, there was different learning rate in sub-sectors of industry, so that differences of learning rate coefficient led to increased productivity and reduced the cost of production. Of course in the majority of industries this coefficient was less than the average intensity of learning in industrial sector. In addition, similar to other variables, the effect of learning intensity on profitability was positive and significant in Iranian industries. Also, further investigation showed that in industries with high added value, due to the use of superior technology, learning rate was higher than the average intensity of learning in Iran’s industries.In this paper lerning intensity refers to cost-saving of labor force and productivity growth that associate with experience. This process measured by using learning curve. Moreover, this article sought to examine the effects of learning rate in Iran’s manufacturing industries performance. To meet this ends the data of 130, 4-digit industries over the periods of 1996-2013 were used to identify learning effects and the extent of cost advantage of labor force owing to increased experience. The results indicated that the learning curve in all sub-sectors of industry had a negative slope as expected. Also, there was different learning rate in sub-sectors of industry, so that differences of learning rate coefficient led to increased productivity and reduced the cost of production. Of course in the majority of industries this coefficient was less than the average intensity of learning in industrial sector. In addition, similar to other variables, the effect of learning intensity on profitability was positive and significant in Iranian industries. Also, further investigation showed that in industries with high added value, due to the use of superior technology, learning rate was higher than the average intensity of learning in Iran’s industries.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6132_c981e7bc588be2157ad634519c9ab045.pdfUniversity of TabrizQuarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics2423-65864120170421Spatial Analysis of Factors Affecting Iran's Exports of the Food and Beverage IndustrySpatial Analysis of Factors Affecting Iran's Exports of the Food and Beverage Industry1972176170FAAkramAkbariPh.D. Candidate in Economics, University of TabrizMohsenPourebadollahan CovichAssociate Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz0000-0002-9148-9133ParvizMohamadzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, University of TabrizSetareاRezaeiPh.D. Candidate in Economics, Islamic Azad University of TabrizJournal Article20170528Nowadays, exports of food and beverages industries play an important role in providing the foreign-exchange gains for countries. Empirical studies related to exports show that the amount of firm`s exports not only depends on the size of the firm, human capital and labor productivity, but also it may be affected by the exports of neighboring provinces. So, the purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that affect the exports of food products and beverage industry using firm-level data of Iranian industrial firms and spatial Durbin Tobit model at 2007.The results of Spatial Durbin Model show that variables such as firm size, labor productivity and human capital have positive and significant effect on firm's exports. Also, significance of spatial lag coefficient of dependent variable (ρ) confirms the existence of spatial effects for studied provinces. The results of evaluating direct and indirect effects show those direct and indirect effects of human capital, labor productivity and firm size for each province and nearby provinces are positive and significant. These results indicate the existence of interstate spillovers.Nowadays, exports of food and beverages industries play an important role in providing the foreign-exchange gains for countries. Empirical studies related to exports show that the amount of firm`s exports not only depends on the size of the firm, human capital and labor productivity, but also it may be affected by the exports of neighboring provinces. So, the purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that affect the exports of food products and beverage industry using firm-level data of Iranian industrial firms and spatial Durbin Tobit model at 2007.The results of Spatial Durbin Model show that variables such as firm size, labor productivity and human capital have positive and significant effect on firm's exports. Also, significance of spatial lag coefficient of dependent variable (ρ) confirms the existence of spatial effects for studied provinces. The results of evaluating direct and indirect effects show those direct and indirect effects of human capital, labor productivity and firm size for each province and nearby provinces are positive and significant. These results indicate the existence of interstate spillovers.https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_6170_e7f875bd5fd52f65256fb114811b59a0.pdf