هزینه‌ رفاهی تورم در ایران (رهیافت مدل تعادل عمومی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، تهران ، ایران.

2 گروه اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، تهران ، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، تهران ، ایران

چکیده

طی دهه‌های گذشته تحقیق درباره هزینه‌های رفاهی تورم یک بخش مهم در اقتصاد پولی و در نتیجه بخش مهمی در اقتصاد کلان گردیده است. هزینه رفاهی تورم شامل تغییرات رفاه ناشی از تورم بوده و مقوله‌ای است که آسیب تورم را از کانال و مجرای پول ظاهر می‌سازد. ازاین‌رو هدف ‌این تحقیق، بررسی هزینه رفاهی تورم در وضعیت یکنواخت با استفاده از رویکرد مدل تعادل عمومی برای اقتصاد ‌ایران است. به‌طوری‌که پول به‌وسیله محدودیت پیش‌پرداخت نقدی در الگو وارد شده است. نتایج حاصل از کالیبراسیون نشان می‌دهد که با افزایش نرخ رشد پولی و به‌تبع آن نرخ تورم، اشتغال، تولید و عایدی رفاهی در وضعیت یکنواخت، کاهش می‌یابد. ضمن این‌که با کاهش نرخ تورم از حالت معیار به حد نرخ تورم سه‌ماهه 2% ، عایدی رفاهی معادل 11/0 درصد مصرف خواهد بود؛ لذا بر اساس نتایج حاصل، پیشنهاد می‌شود که به‌ دلیل تأثیر سیاست‌های پولی بر رفاه، کارایی سیاست پولی مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Welfare Cost of Inflation in Iran (General Equilibrium Model Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Nasrollahi 1
  • Karim Emami 2
  • Kambiz Peykarjou 3
  • Abbas Memarnejad 3
  • Taghi Torabi 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Over the past decades, research on the welfare costs of inflation has become a significant area in monetary economics and, consequently, an important subject in macroeconomics. The welfare cost of inflation refers to changes in welfare caused by inflation and represents the damages inflicted by inflation through the monetary channel. Accordingly, this study aims to examine the welfare cost of inflation in a steady-state environment using a general equilibrium model approach for the Iranian economy. In this framework, money is introduced into the model through a cash-in-advance constraint. The results obtained from the model calibration indicate that with an increase in the monetary growth rate—and consequently the inflation rate—employment, output, and welfare income in the steady state decline. Furthermore, when the inflation rate is reduced from the benchmark level to the quarterly inflation target of 2%, the welfare gain would be equivalent to 0.11 percent of consumption. Therefore, based on the findings, it is recommended that due to the impact of monetary policies on welfare, the efficiency of monetary policy should be given due attention.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inflation
  • general equilibrium
  • welfare
  • calibration
  • monetary policy

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