رابطه نامتقارن قیمت مسکن و تقاضای پول در ایران (رهیافت کوانتایل بر کوانتایل)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، پژوهشکده امور اقتصادی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار،گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر، رابطه میان قیمت مسکن و تقاضای پول مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور از داده­های فصلی بازه زمانی 1391:1 – 1401:4 و روش تخمین کوانتایل بر کوانتایل استفاده شد که تلفیقی از روش­های تخمین ناپارامتریک و رگرسیون کوانتایل می­باشد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که اثر قیمت مسکن بر تقاضای پول به صورت متقارن و غیر خطی است. در واقع با افزایش قیمت مسکن تقاضای پول کاهش می­یابد که این کاهش در کوانتایل­های حدود میانه بیشتر است. این نتیجه تاییدکننده فرضیه جانشینی منفی مسکن در پرتفوی دارایی می­باشد. همچنین نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که رشد اقتصادی در کوانتایل‌های میانه اثر مثبت و در سایر کوانتایل‌ها اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد. در خصوص اثر تورم و نرخ ارز بر تقاضای پول نیز نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که اثر تورم به صورت متقارن ولی اثر نرخ ارز بر تقاضای پول به صورت نامتقارن است. به بیان دیگر افزایش تورم موجب افزایش تقاضای پول خواهد شد. با این حال، اثر نرخ ارز بر تقاضای پول در کوانتایل­های بالای نرخ ارز، متفاوت از کوانتایل­های پایین می­باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Asymmetric Relationship Between Housing Prices and Money Demand in Iran (Quantile-on-Quantile Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Roozbeh Balounejad nouri 1
  • Ali Younessi 2
  • Amir ali Farhang 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Economic Affairs Research Institute
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study investigates the relationship between housing prices and the demand for money. To this end, seasonal data from the period 2013:Q1 to 2022:Q4 were analyzed using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) estimation method, which combines non-parametric estimation techniques with quantile regression. The results reveal that the effect of housing prices on money demand is both symmetrical and non-linear. Specifically, as housing prices increase, the demand for money decreases—most notably in the middle quantiles. This finding supports the negative substitution hypothesis, suggesting that housing acts as a substitute asset within the portfolio. Furthermore, the study finds that economic growth positively affects money demand in the middle quantiles, while exerting a negative influence in the lower and upper quantiles. Regarding inflation and the exchange rate, the results indicate that inflation has a symmetrical impact on money demand, whereas the exchange rate effect is asymmetrical. In other words, higher inflation leads to increased money demand, but the influence of the exchange rate varies across quantiles—differing significantly between the upper and lower ends of the exchange rate distribution.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Money Demand
  • Housing Market
  • Quantile-on-Quantile Regression

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