بررسی تأثیر رمیتانس بر رشد اقتصادی کشور‌های جنوب آسیا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

چکیده

بخش قابل توجهی از نیروی کار کشور های درحال توسعه جنوب آسیا جهت یافتن شغل به کشورهای خارجی مهاجرت می­کنند. این کشورها سالانه مبالغ قابل توجهی رمیتانس دریافت می­کنند. جریان رمیتانس تاثیرات اقتصادی بر کشورهای مبدأ می‌گذارد. هدف این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر رمیتانس بر رشد اقتصادی کشور های جنوب آسیا؛ طی دوره  2007 تا 2022 و با استفاده از رویکرد اقتصاد سنجی پانل می­باشد. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می­دهد که رمیتانس بر رشد اقتصادی کشور های جنوب آسیا اثر منفی و معنادار دارد. با توجه به ادبیات پژوهش، علل اثر منفی رمیتانس بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای جنوب آسیا  فرار مغزها و کاهش نیروی کار، افزایش نرخ ارز، کاهش رقابت‌پذیری اقتصاد، افزایش مخارج مصرفی و افزایش واردات می­باشند. اثر سایر متغیرهای کنترلی دیگر (سرمایه‌گذاری داخلی، سرمایه‌گذاری انسانی، توسعه زیرساخت‌ها، کنترل و مبارزه با فساد مالی واداری و سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی) بر رشد اقتصادی بررسی و تحلیل شده است. نتایج تخمین رگرسیون مدل نشان می­دهد که سرمایه‌گذاری داخلی، سرمایه‌گذاری انسانی، توسعه زیرساخت‌ها، بر رشد اقتصادی اثر مثبت و معنادار دارد. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش، ترکیب سیاست‌های هدایت رمیتانس به تولید، سرمایه‌گذاری در آموزش و زیرساخت‌ها، مبارزه با فساد توصیه می­شود، این اقدامات می‌تواند چرخه معیوب مهاجرت و رشد اقتصادی منفی را به چرخه‌ای از اشتغال‌زایی، جذب سرمایه‌گذاری و توسعه پایدار تبدیل کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in South Asian Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zabiullah Saadat 1
  • Rahman Saadat 2
  • Majid Maddah 3
1 PhD student, Department of Economics, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran
3 Professor, Department of economics, University of Semnan, Semnan, Iran
چکیده [English]

A significant portion of the labor force in developing South Asian countries migrates abroad in search of employment. These countries receive substantial annual remittance amounts. The flow of remittances has a notable economic impact on the countries of origin. This study aims to examine the effects of remittances on economic growth in South Asian countries using annual data from 2007 to 2022, applying a panel data modeling approach. Based on the results of the F-Limer test, a fixed-effects model was selected, and the Hausman test further confirmed the appropriateness of this specification. The findings suggest that remittances have a statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in the region. According to the research literature, the negative impact of remittances on economic growth in South Asian countries is attributed to brain drain and a reduction in the labor force, currency appreciation, decreased economic competitiveness, increased consumption expenditures, and higher imports. The effects of other control variables—including domestic investment, human capital investment, infrastructure development, control and prevention of financial and administrative corruption, and foreign direct investment—on economic growth have also been examined and analyzed. The regression model estimates indicate that domestic investment, human capital investment, and infrastructure development have a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth. Based on the findings, a combination of policies is recommended, including directing remittances towards production, investing in education and infrastructure, and combating corruption. Such measures could transform the vicious cycle of migration and negative economic growth into a virtuous cycle of job creation, investment attraction, and sustainable development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Remittances
  • Economic Growth
  • South Asia
  • Panel econometrics

مراجع

  1. Abadie, A. (2021). Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects. Journal of economic literature, 59(2), 391-425.‏
  2. Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program. Journal of the American statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.‏
  3. Abadie, A., & Gardeazabal, J. (2003). The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country. American economic review, 93(1), 113-132.‏
  4. Aslan, M., Aslan, K., & Rashid, Y. (2020). Economic and socioeconomic consequences of us sanctions on Iran. Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, 1(1), 1-32.‏
  5. Ansarian, M. (2014). The Impact of Sanctions Imposed on Iran from the Perspective of the Doctrine of Human Security. Tadbir Eqtesad Institute, Tehran. (In Persian).
  6. Azadi, A., & Eghbali, M. (2015). The Impact of Sanctions on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Iran. International Conference on Economics under Sanctions, Tehran (In Persian).
  7. Cerulli, G., Nenci, S., Salvatici, L., & Zinilli, A. (2022). Currency unions and global value chains: the impact of the euro on the italian value added exports. Italian Economic Journal, 8(2), 373-407.‏
  8. Dizaji, S. F., & Farzanegan, M. R. (2018). Do sanctions reduce the military spending in Iran? (No. 31-2018). MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics.‏
  9. Ezzati, Mo., & Salmani, Y. (2015). Estimating the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's economic growth. Basij Strategic Quarterly, 18 (67), 1-69 (In Persian).
  10. Ezzati, M., Daghighi Asli, A. R., & Sadat Ostad Ramezan, A. (2019). The impact of effective factors on attracting foreign direct investment with emphasis on institutional and structural variables. Quarterly Journal of Economic Sciences, 8, 149-131 (In Persian).
  11. Farzanegan, M. R. (2022). The effects of international sanctions on Iran’s military spending: A synthetic control analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(7), 767-778.‏
  12. Felbermayr, G., Syropoulos, C., Yalcin, E., & Yotov, Y. V. (2019). On the effects of sanctions on trade and welfare: New evidence based on structural gravity and a new database (No. 2131). Kiel working paper.‏
  13. Farzanegan, M. R., & Batmanghelidj, E. (2024). Understanding economic sanctions on Iran: A survey. The Economists’ Voice, 20(2), 197-226.‏
  14. Gabriel, R. D., & Pessoa, A. S. (2024). Adopting the Euro: a synthetic control approach. European Journal of Political Economy, 83, 102537.‏
  15. Garshasbi, A. R., & Yousefi Dindarloo, M. (2016). Studying the effects of international sanctions on Iran's macroeconomic variables. Quarterly Journal of Economic Modeling Research,25, 129-182 (In Persian).
  16. Ghasemi, A. R., & Bahadroni, E. (2014). Economic Management of the Country under Sanctions (Challenges and Strategies). Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture Publications (In Persian).
  17. Ghomi, M. (2022). Who is afraid of sanctions? The macroeconomic and distributional effects of the sanctions against Iran. Economics & Politics, 34(3), 395-428.‏
  18. Hassanvand, A. A., Hassanvand, D., & Nademi, Y. (2018). The impact of sanctions on Iran's non-oil exports. Strategic and Macro Policies, 6 (24), 687-666 (In Persian).
  19. Hove, M. (2012). The debates and impact of sanctions: The Zimbabwean experience. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(5).‏
  20. Khanzadeh, M., Davoudi, P., Samsami, H., & Moridi Farimani, F. (2013). Identifying Production Chains in the Domestic Environment of Iran and Investigating the Performance of Foreign Trade of the Iranian Economy in Those Chains. Applied Theories of Economics, 10(4), 1-32 (In Persian).
  21. Kokabisaghi, F. (2018). Assessment of the effects of economic sanctions on Iranians’ right to health by using human rights impact assessment tool: a systematic review. International journal of health policy and management, 7(5), 374.‏
  22. Marzban, M., & Ostadzad, K. (2012). The Effects of Sanctions on Economic Welfare in Iran, Computable General Equilibrium Models Approach. Financial Economics, 13(48), 167-189 (In Persian).
  23. Mohammadvand Naderi, M. R., & Sadeghi, L. (2017). Studying the impact of economic sanctions on the production of the industrial sector in Iran. Third International Conference on Management, Economics and Accounting, Tehran (In Persian).
  24. Neuenkirch, M., & Neumeier, F. (2015). The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 40, 110-125.‏
  25. Paytakhi Oskoui, S. A., & Tabaqchi Akbari, L. (2016). Studying the Impact of Sanctions on the Employment Status of Women in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Women and Family Studies, 31, 2-7 (In Persian).
  26. Sanctions Against Iran: A Guide to Targets, Terms, and Timetables.” Samore, Gary, ed. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, June 2015
  27. Sadeghi, A., & Tayebi, K. (2017). The Effects of International Sanctions and Other Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate in Iran. Economic Research, 52(3), 641-661 (In Persian).
  28. Vasfi Esfestani, Sh., Abolhasani Hastiani, A., & Amini Milani, M. (2013). Studying the effects of financial sanctions on the composition of production inputs in Iran: A computable general equilibrium approach. Applied Economic Theories, 10(3), 35-66 (In Persian).
  29. Yari, A., Rezaei, D., & Gholami, M. (2019). Typology of international sanctions imposed against the Islamic Republic of Iran (1979-2016). Parliament and Strategy, 26(99), 63-98 (In Persian).

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار