سرریز رشد اقتصادی و مالی کشورهای عضو سازمان سارک بر رشد اقتصادی افغانستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد مالی، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

2 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

هدف این مطالعه، تحلیل سرریز رشد اقتصادی و مالی کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای جنوب آسیا (هند، پاکستان، مالدیو، نپال، سریلانکا، بنگلادش و بوتان) بر اقتصاد کشور افغانستان است. در این تحقیق از داده‌های سالانه متغیرهای اقتصادی (تولید ناخالص داخلی، صادرات کالا و خدمات) و مالی (نرخ ارز) در بازه زمانی (2000-2021) و الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری پانلی (PVAR) استفاده‌شده است. یافته‌های این پژوهش حاکی از وجود رابطه‌ای مثبت و بلندمدت بین رشد متغیرهای اقتصادی و مالی کشورهای هند، پاکستان، بنگلادش، مالدیو، بوتان، سریلانکا و افغانستان است. در کوتاه‌مدت نیز رشد اقتصادی افغانستان به متغیرهای اقتصادی و مالی سایر کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری‌های منطقه‌ای جنوب آسیا (سارک)، به استثنای نپال، وابسته است. افزون بر آن، نتایج مذکور در بلندمدت موید این امر است که کشورهای عضو سازمان سارک سهم بسزایی در تبیین نوسانات متغیرهای اقتصادی و مالی در افغانستان دارند. شایان ذکر است که کشورهای هند و پاکستان به ترتیب بیشترین سهم در این زمینه را دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spillover Effects of Economic and Financial Growth of SAARC Member Countries on Afghanistan’s Economic Growth

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad yusoaf khashee 1
  • Kazem Yavari 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Financial Economics, Department of Economics, University of Yazd, Yazd, Iran
2 Professor of Economics, University of Yazd, Yazd, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is to analyze the spillover effects of economic and financial growth in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) member countries (India, Pakistan, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Bhutan) on Afghanistan’s economy. In this research, annual data on economic variables (gross domestic product, exports of goods and services) and financial variables (exchange rate) over the period 2000–2021 have been used, applying the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The results of this study indicate the existence of a positive and long-term relationship between the growth of economic and financial variables in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan. In the short term as well, Afghanistan’s economic growth depends on the economic and financial variables of other SAARC member countries, except for Nepal. Furthermore, the long-term results confirm that SAARC member countries play a significant role in explaining the fluctuations of Afghanistan’s economic and financial variables. It is noteworthy that India and Pakistan, respectively, have the largest share in this regard.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic and financial spillovers
  • SAARC
  • Afghanistan economy
  • Panel Vector Auto regression (PVAR)

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