بررسی آثار رفاهی یارانه‌های نقدی در اقتصاد ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد،دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

این مطالعه به بررسی اثر رفاهی یارانه­های نقدی بر سه گروه خانوار یارانه­بگیر، خانوار غیر یارانه­بگیر و خرده فروشان طی بازه زمانی 1402-1394 می­پردازد. ابتدا با استفاده از یک مدل تعادل جزئی با لحاظ خانوارهای یارانه­بگیر و خانوارهای غیر یارانه­بگیر، کشش قیمت نسبت به یارانه­های نقدی محاسبه شد. سپس تغییرات مازاد مصرف کننده و مازاد تولید کننده نسبت به یارانه­های نقدی محاسبه گردید تا براساس کشش­ها و پارامترهای قابل اندازه­گیری قابل تفسیر باشد. در انتها پارامترها و کشش­های مورد نیاز با استفاده از مدل­های اقتصاد سنجی اندازه­گیری شده و مدل مورد نظر شبیه­سازی گردید.  نتایج این تحقیق نشان می­دهد یارانه­های نقدی می­تواند موجب افزایش شاخص قیمت­ گردد؛ طوری که هر یک درصد افزایش در یارانه­های نقدی می­تواند 0.05 درصد شاخص قیمت را افزایش دهد. اندازه­گیری تغییرات مازاد رفاهی مصرف کننده و مازاد رفاهی تولید کننده نشان می­دهد که یارانه­های نقدی پیامدهای رفاهی ناهمگنی بر گروه­های مورد مطالعه داشته است. یارانه‌ها موجب افزایش رفاه مصرف‌کنندگان یارانه‌بگیر و تولیدکنندگان شده، در حالی که مصرف‌کنندگان غیر یارانه‌بگیر متحمل زیان رفاهی شده‌اند. بنابراین، آثار رفاهی یارانه‌ها ماهیتی بازتوزیعی دارند و از طریق سازوکار قیمت‌ها، منافع و هزینه‌ها را میان گروه‌های مختلف اقتصادی توزیع می‌کنند. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که تحلیل سیاست‌های یارانه‌ای بدون توجه به آثار قیمتی و ساختار بازار می‌تواند منجر به ارزیابی ناقص پیامدهای رفاهی آن‌ها شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Cash Subsidies in the Iranian Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farshad Hosseini 1
  • Ahmad Sadraei Javaheri 2
  • Zahra Dehghan Shabani 2
  • Mahboubeh Jafari 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

This study examines the welfare effects of cash subsidies on three groups of households and market participants, namely subsidy-receiving households, non-subsidy-receiving households, and retailers, over the period 2015–2023. First, using a partial equilibrium model that incorporates subsidy-receiving and non-subsidy-receiving households, the price elasticity with respect to cash subsidies was estimated. Subsequently, changes in consumer surplus and producer surplus with respect to cash subsidies were calculated so that they could be interpreted based on the elasticities and measurable parameters. Finally, the required parameters and elasticities were estimated using econometric models, and the proposed model was simulated. The results of this study indicate that cash subsidies may lead to an increase in the price index, such that a one-percent increase in cash subsidies may increase the price index by 0.05 percent. Measurement of changes in consumer welfare surplus and producer welfare surplus indicates that cash subsidies have had heterogeneous welfare consequences across the groups under study. Subsidies have increased the welfare of subsidy-receiving consumers and producers, while non-subsidy-receiving consumers have incurred welfare losses. Therefore, the welfare effects of subsidies are redistributive in nature and, through the price mechanism, distribute benefits and costs among different economic groups. These findings indicate that analyzing subsidy policies without considering their price effects and market structure may result in an incomplete assessment of their welfare consequences.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Subsidy
  • Welfare
  • Welfare Incidence
  • Retailing

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 50
شماره پاییز 1405
شهریور 1405
صفحه 197-230

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