https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/ Applied Theories of Economics en daily 1 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20384.html The present study was conducted with the primary objective of examining the effect of green foreign direct investment (FDI) on entrepreneurial activities in Iran. To achieve this goal, data from the period 2008–2022 were utilized. Given the significant scarcity of accessible and published data on entrepreneurship, the fuzzy regression method was selected as an appropriate tool for data analysis and model estimation. The results of the study indicated that green FDI has had a negative impact on entrepreneurship in Iran. Additionally, the research data showed that certain factors, such as gross domestic product growth, entrepreneurial motivation and willingness, government support, macroeconomic policies, and risk acceptance, played positive roles in fostering entrepreneurship. In contrast, factors such as high tax rates, complexities in bureaucratic structures, and excessive openness of the domestic market were considered obstacles that negatively affected entrepreneurial growth. The negative impact of green FDI on entrepreneurship can be attributed to several key reasons, including the occupation of a significant portion of market capacity by foreign investors, increased competition intensity, and the creation of additional barriers to market entry for local entrepreneurs. These conditions have reduced motivation and limited growth opportunities for domestic entrepreneurs, ultimately acting as a deterrent to the promotion of entrepreneurial activities https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20480.html A healthy environment is a cornerstone of sustainable development and plays a vital role in both quality of life and economic growth. Within this framework, financial development emerges as a double-edged factor: while it can enhance environmental quality by facilitating investment in clean technologies and improving resource efficiency, it may simultaneously undermine it by driving higher energy consumption and pollutant emissions. This study examines the relationship between financial development and environmental quality, with a particular focus on the roles of technology, population, and resource abundance. Environmental quality is assessed using two indicators—carbon dioxide emissions and the ecological footprint—while energy intensity is employed as a proxy for technology. The analysis utilizes data from 11 OPEC member countries over the period 1990–2018, applying the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator and the STRIPAT model. The results reveal that financial development increases carbon dioxide emissions and the ecological footprint, with coefficients of 0.106 and 0.093 respectively, thereby deteriorating environmental quality. Furthermore, greater energy intensity, as a proxy for technology, is found to reduce environmental quality, while population growth and affluence exert similarly adverse effects. Causality tests confirm a bidirectional relationship between financial development and environmental quality. These findings suggest that OPEC member countries can improve their environmental performance through investment in clean technologies and by reducing energy intensity. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20244.html Given the economy’s dependence on banks as the primary source of corporate financing, the performance of the banking system significantly affects the broader economy. Banking system performance is typically assessed through its balance sheet. This study examines the reality that when this crucial financial statement becomes imbalanced, how economic welfare is affected. Considering the importance of this issue, the present study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate the impact of banking imbalance on economic welfare over the period 1978–2022  in two frameworks. In the first framework, bank debt growth to the central bank is used as an indicator of banking imbalance, while in the second framework, government debt growth to the central bank is employed to strengthen the robustness of the results. The composite economic welfare index is used to measure economic welfare. The movement of the economic welfare index indicates that during the study period, it fluctuated around an average of 40.26. Similarly, the growth of bank debt to the central bank and government debt to the central bank showed fluctuations, with averages of 1.29 and -3.56, respectively. Long-term estimation results indicate that banking imbalance (based on both indicators) has a negative effect on economic welfare. Additionally, per capita income and economic growth have positive effects, while inflation has a negative impact on economic welfare.  Based on the results, ensuring the stability and soundness of bank balance sheets is crucial for maintaining economic stability, promoting sustainable growth, and ultimately enhancing economic welfare. Therefore, it is recommended that measures to reduce banking imbalance be implemented, such as reforming the banking system, converting non-productive bank assets into securities, preventing the transformation of banks’ overdrafts into credit lines, reducing mandatory lending, and ensuring adequate bank capital. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20931.html Economic sanctions against Iran have inevitably affected the national currency value and the flow of international trade. At the same time, sanctions have influenced public expectations, contributing to increased exchange rate volatility. Recognizing the significance of these factors, the present study aims to examine the impact of economic sanctions and exchange rate fluctuations on Iran’s imports over the period 1991–2023. This study contains two key innovations. First, it categorizes the sanctions imposed on Iran’s economy into three levels of intensity: mild, moderate, and strong. Second, because multiple visible and invisible factors can affect a country’s imports, a fuzzy regression model is employed to fit the data and capture these complexities. The findings indicate that increasing exchange rate volatility raises transaction risks for importers, which in turn reduces the volume of imported goods. Additionally, the fuzzy coefficients of the dummy variables for sanctions show that the imposition of sanctions, besides limiting the inflow of goods and services, increases the total cost of imported goods. As a result, the ratio of imports to Iran’s GDP has experienced a significant decline. Furthermore, a comparison of the symmetric triangular fuzzy coefficients in the model suggests that the primary barrier to imports in Iran is high-intensity sanctions. These strong sanctions act as a substantial obstacle, overshadowing other factors and sharply reducing the inflow of goods and services. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20591.html Urban environmental governance, as a complex and multidimensional domain, requires a profound understanding of the interactions among various actors, institutional structures, and decision-making processes. Urban environmental governance is both a practical and strategic necessity for achieving sustainable development and ensuring the health and well-being of citizens. The present study was conducted to structurally analyze urban environmental governance through a futures studies approach (monitoring the past and present to understand the future) and scenario planning in the metropolis of Tabriz. Methodologically, this research is analytical and exploratory, based on futures studies methods, and is applied in terms of purpose. Data collection was conducted through documentary methods in the theoretical section and through a Delphi survey in the practical section. Data analysis was performed using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The MICMAC output indicated system instability. The variables and factors influencing environmental governance in Tabriz metropolis were categorized into seven components and forty-seven variables. Using MICMAC software, fifteen key factors were identified and, along with forty-nine states, entered into the Scenario Wizard. Scenario Wizard analyses, out of a total of 10,004 possible scenarios, produced seven highly consistent and plausible scenarios. Approximately 57 of the forthcoming conditions for the future of urban environmental governance in Tabriz metropolis indicate a desirable state. Updating and enacting environmental laws and regulations in Tabriz, establishing a Supreme Council for Urban Environment, integrated urban management and planning, planning to address environmental crises, and incorporating environmental policymaking into urban planning are among the most significant key factors influencing the future state of urban environmental governance in the Tabriz metropolis. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20496.html Given the widespread use of economic sanctions and the introduction of new sanction regimes since the early 2010s, as well as the potential application of a “maximum pressure” policy during Trump’s second administration as a tool for economic-political leverage, this study seeks to provide a framework for evaluating the Central Bank’s exchange rate management in line with Clause 2 of the general policies of the Seventh Development Plan under economic sanctions. For this purpose, a DSGE approach with a Neo-Keynesian perspective is employed to simulate the impact of oil and financial sanctions on Iran’s economy over the period 1991–2024. The focal point of this research is the application of optimal monetary policies aimed at minimizing the Central Bank’s losses under sanction conditions. Simulation results indicate that implementing optimal monetary policies, with a focus on controlling inflation and reducing the output gap, can significantly mitigate the Central Bank’s losses under intensified oil and financial sanctions. This approach is efficient when emphasizing inflation control through exchange rate market management, stabilizing the exchange rate (and consequently, inflation), and alleviating pressures on domestic production inputs, in accordance with Clause 2 of the general policies outlined in the Seventh Development Plan. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20615.html Exchange rate fluctuations and monetary policy changes affect stock market returns through channels such as the cost of capital, credit, and exchange rates. Understanding the distinction between these effects, especially during economic sanctions, is of great importance to policymakers and investors. Accordingly, the present study examines the effect of monetary policy on the stock returns of 9 export industries and eight import industries, as well as the total of these industries on the Tehran Stock Exchange, during the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2023. For this purpose, monetary policy was measured using the monetary conditions index derived from a principal component analysis (PCA), and liquidity volume, oil price, and interest rate were included as control variables. The estimation of short-run and long-run relationships was carried out using the pooled group mean (PMG) method. The results showed that in the long run, monetary policy has a positive and significant effect on the returns of export industries and on the total of industries. In contrast, no effect was observed for import industries. No direct effect was reported in the short run. However, the error-correction coefficients indicated that export, import, and total industries return to long-run equilibrium at rates of 84, 74, and 80 percent, respectively. These findings highlight the dominant role of export industries in the Iranian capital market. Therefore, it is suggested that investors should focus more on export industries under expansionary monetary policy conditions, and that policymakers should reduce the potential adverse effects on import industries and enhance the stability of economic actors’ expectations by managing the exchange rate and interest rates. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20949.html The purpose of this research is to examine how government spending shocks affect Iran's economic growth.To achieve this goal, multivariate modeling of Ram's (1986) growth patterns and Hansen's threshold regression method have been used. The threshold criteria used in this study for government size are: the ratio of government current expenditures to GDP (GS1) and the ratio of government capital asset acquisition costs to GDP (GS2). The findings of this study confirm the positive effect of government spending shocks on capital asset acquisition costs and their lack of confirmation in the area of current spending on Iran's economic growth. Also, the results indicate that the Bars (Army) curve has not been realized in the Iranian economy during the period 1961 to 2023; meaning that in none of the small, medium, and large government sizes, the relationship between government size and economic growth is negative, and we do not witness an inverted U curve in this relationship. However, this effect is faced with a decrease in efficiency and effectiveness in large government sizes. The positive side effects of government spending in the areas of current spending and capital asset acquisition on non-government sector production are another finding of this study, which is faced with a decrease in elasticity in the current spending sector from small to large government and an increase in elasticity in the capital asset acquisition sector. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20779.html Contemporary international discourse increasingly recognizes sustainable housing as a multidimensional concept encompassing socio-cultural, physical, and environmental aspects, alongside the critical need for affordability. This study aims to identify the key challenges hindering sustainable affordable housing in Iran, focusing on the practical applicability of research findings. A comprehensive review of the scholarly literature from 2010 to 2024 identified 2,418 relevant articles, of which 61 were selected for in-depth meta-synthesis using MAXQDA2020 software. The analysis revealed 30 unique semantic units (non-repetitive open codes), 13 conceptual themes, and 5 overarching categories representing critical challenges. Results indicate that Iran’s persistent crisis in sustainable affordable housing is fundamentally rooted in deficiencies within the institutional framework. These include the absence of a holistic housing management and planning system, fragmented and inefficient policies, complex bureaucratic processes and excessive government involvement in the housing market. Addressing this crisis necessitates fundamental reforms in policymaking, improvements in executive processes, and a strategic shift in the government’s role from direct implementation to effective regulation. Consequently, reforming institutional arrangements, transitioning the government’s role from executor to long-term regulator and policymaker, streamlining executive processes, reducing bureaucratic burdens, and establishing robust oversight of the housing market are crucial for resolving the housing affordability crisis in Iran. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_20950.html One of the challenging issues in environmental economics is addressing the fundamental question of whether economic growth leads to environmental pollution. The gender dimension in the labor market, which can influence environmental behaviors, has received relatively little attention in environmental modeling so far. This study aims to examine the relationship between gender unemployment and environmental pollution within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis across the provinces of Iran. Annual data for 31 provinces over the period 2011–2021 were collected, and panel data estimation techniques were employed to assess the impact of male and female unemployment rates on carbon dioxide emissions. The findings indicate that economic growth leads to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions; therefore, the provinces of Iran are located on the downward segment of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results also show that higher male unemployment is associated with lower environmental pollution, whereas an increase in female unemployment contributes to greater environmental degradation. In addition, a rise in gender inequality in unemployment leads to an increase in environmental pollution. Based on these results, the Environmental Phillips Curve hypothesis is confirmed only for men in the provinces of Iran. Moreover, the findings suggest that improving women's employment and increasing their economic participation can contribute to better environmental conditions. These findings highlight the significance of women’s participation in the labor market from an environmental standpoint, demonstrating that women’s employment not only does not harm the environment, but may also contribute positively to the improvement of environmental quality. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21000.html Objective: This study aims to examine the responsiveness of inflation in Iran’s economy to key policy variables, including the monetary base, budget deficit, exchange rate, and balance of payments. In addition, the research evaluates the asymmetric responses of inflation to positive and negative shocks in these variables over the short and long run. Methods: Time-series data covering the period 2001–2023 were collected and analyzed using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to investigate the relationships among the variables. Results: The results indicate that the monetary base, budget deficit, exchange rate, and balance of payments play a significant role in explaining fluctuations and variations in inflation. Moreover, the findings reveal that inflation responds asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks in these variables, generating distinct effects in the short and long run. Conclusions: The evidence suggests that monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and trade policies in Iran must be formulated and implemented with careful consideration of their asymmetric and heterogeneous impacts on inflation. Neglecting these nonlinearities may undermine the effectiveness of policies aimed at managing and controlling inflation. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21061.html The aim of this study is to investigate the Threshold effect of bank capital on liquidity creation in 59 developing countries and 37 developed countries in two separate models over the period 2004-2023. For this purpose, the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, which is very suitable for heterogeneous panel data, has been used. The results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between the variables under study and the threshold value of the transmission variable (i.e., the logarithm of the bank's regulatory capital) in the developed countries model is estimated to be 3.0034 and the slope parameter is 7.4897, and in the developing countries model the threshold value of the transmission variable is estimated to be 2.996 and the slope parameter is 16.5003. The results in developed countries indicate that in the first regime, economic growth and financial stability have a negative effect on liquidity creation, which decreases after crossing the threshold location in the second regime but is still negative. The results also indicate that financial inclusion has a positive effect on liquidity creation in the first regime, but its effect gradually decreases and becomes negative in the second regime. In addition, the results for developing countries show that economic growth and financial stability have a negative impact on liquidity creation in both regimes. The results also indicate that financial inclusion in the first regime has a positive effect on liquidity creation, and in the second regime, its effect gradually decreases, but is still positive. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21122.html In this article, it has been tried to include leisure as a risk factor in the random discount factor of the capital asset pricing model and calculate its share in the utility function of the household. So, the data of Iran's economy for the period 1978 to 2021 have been used. First, by using a recursive preferences function such as the function provided by Epstein-Zine, we extracted the Euler equation containing the leisure risk factor. Then, coefficients have been estimated using the GMM. The J statistic confirms the appropriateness of the tools used in estimating the model. The findings show that the contribution of leisure on the desirability of Iranian families is significant and equal to 0.158. It is concluded that the inclusion of leisure as a risk factor in the framework of CCAPM is justified, and with the contribution of this factor to the household's welfare can be measured. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21171.html Changes in China's monetary and fiscal policies can have significant effects on Iran's macroeconomic variables through changes in exchange rates, capital flows, and market expectations. On the other hand, Iran, as a developing economy dependent on oil revenues, also influences real variables such as exports, imports, employment, and investment through its domestic monetary and fiscal policies. This research investigates and compares the spillover effects of China's and Iran's monetary and fiscal policies on Iran's macroeconomic variables using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach and monthly data from 1999-2022. The variables used in the model for Iran include the real effective exchange rate (REXCH), employment (EMP), exports of goods and services (EXP), imports (IMP), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), money supply growth (M2), and total government expenditure (EXPEN). For both China and Iran, money supply growth and total government expenditure were considered as indicators of monetary and fiscal policy. The findings indicate that the impact of China's policy shocks on Iran's economy has been limited and short-term. In contrast, Iran's domestic policy shocks, especially liquidity growth and total government expenditure, are considered the main sources of the country's economic fluctuations. Iran's liquidity growth has been the most persistent and influential variable in transmitting fluctuations to other sectors, and increased liquidity is accompanied by inflationary pressure, reduced purchasing power, exchange rate instability, and weakened employment. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21205.html Abstract Evaluating correlation between financial assets is one of the fundamental issues in investment analysis and risk management. Investors who try to diversify their portfolios in order to avoid risk pay special attention to the connections between markets. In recent years, the existence of long-term memory in Iranian financial markets has occupied an important part of time series analysis. Empirical evidence shows that negative and positive shocks do not have the same effect on the fluctuations of time series of financial variables. In this study, the dynamic conditional correlation between foreign exchange markets and oil prices is examined with an emphasis on the effect of long-term memory and the asymmetry of their effectiveness. For this purpose, daily data on oil prices and common currencies of the dollar, euro, yuan and lira in the period from 2/5/1393 to 24/1/1402 have been used. The results of the data analysis using FIEGARCH-DCC indicate the existence of a negative and meaningless conditional correlation between oil prices and the dollar rate, and the existence of a positive and significant conditional correlation between oil prices and the euro rate. In foreign exchange transactions, except for the relationship between the dollar and the yuan and the euro and the yuan, the remaining relationships between currencies are positive and significant. The existence of long-term memory in the time series under study is also confirmed. Keywords: Dynamic conditional correlation, foreign exchange market, long-term memory, FIEGARCH J https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21262.html This study focuses on the importance of effective weed control in increasing corn yield, to optimise the profit in weed control under interval uncertainty. We aim to find an optimal balance between crop and weeds to maximise the economic benefit for the producer. To achieve this goal, a dose-response function was first modelled for herbicides and weed population dynamics (such as invasive dicotyledonous weeds). Then, the final crop yield was calculated by considering factors such as planting method, weather conditions, and pests. This problem was formulated as an optimal control problem with an interval profit function. Simulation results using the herbicide atrazine showed that applying optimal herbicide doses leads to a sustainable reduction of the seed bank and a significant increase in profitability over time. Optimal solutions based on the LU order relationship are shown, which significantly improve the long-term economic profit and productivity of intelligent weed management. This study formulates the weed control problem as a dynamic interval value optimisation problem and, using the solution concept generated by the LU order relationship, provides an efficient tool for sustainable decision-making in agriculture and the management of economic uncertainties. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21263.html Poverty is one of the basic problems of human societies and a sign of underdevelopment. With the growing extent of poverty and deprivation in Iran, addressing this issue now feels more urgent than ever. Therefore, this research was conducted to answer the question: "Why, despite the Islamic Republic of Iran's efforts to eliminate poverty and deprivation-spending significant natural and national resources over the past forty years- has it failed to achieve acceptable results?" A qualitative method and grounded theory were used, and field data was gathered through semi-structured interviews with 20 subject-matter experts in 2022. Sampling was purposeful and continued until theoretical saturation. The interviews were analyzed using open, axial, and selective coding. Findings from the interviews were categorized into six components, with one central phenomenon identified. The model presents the causal conditions of poverty in the IRI, background conditions influencing these causes and strategies, intervening factors, strategies used by the IRI, and the outcomes of those strategies. One reason for the IRI’s failure to meet its goals is the ineffective educational structure -an element often overlooked in current theoretical literature -which plays a role in perpetuating poverty in Iran. https://ecoj.tabrizu.ac.ir/article_21432.html Foreign direct investment is one of the most important tools in the growth and development of countries. In recent years, understanding the impact of uncertainty as a potential driver of international investment flows has received attention. To examine the impact of global uncertainty on foreign direct investment, a global vector autoregression model and a sample of 33 countries over the period 1991: 2Q to 2023: 4Q are used. This study makes a significant contribution to enriching the foreign direct investment literature by using a global uncertainty index that covers different aspects of uncertainty as well as a global vector autoregression model that considers the linkages between countries in the world. Foreign direct investment shows heterogeneous effects following global uncertainty shocks, as a large impact on foreign direct investment is observed in some countries, while others are less affected. The long-term results for most countries show a negative impact of the global uncertainty shock on FDI flows. This negative impact is explained by the postponement of investment in uncertain conditions.