سیاست پولی و نااطمینانی‌های اقتصادکلان در ایران: رویکردی تجربی با تحلیل در حوزه زمان - فرکانس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

نااطمینانی در متغیرهای کلیدی اقتصادکلان با اخلال در تصمیم­گیری عاملین اقتصادی و اعوجاج در سازوکار تخصیص منابع، چالشی مهم برای اقتصاد ایران به شمار می­رود. از این­رو، اتخاذ سیاست­های مناسب برای کاهش نااطمینانی ضروری است. بر این اساس، تحقیق حاضر اثربخشی سیاست پولی در کاهش نااطمینانی­های اقتصادکلان را طی دوره 1400 – 1368 بررسی می­کند. برای این منظور، از تبدیل موجک پیوسته برای کشف پویایی­های ارتباط میان سیاست پولی با نااطمینانی تورم، نااطمینانی رشد اقتصادی و نااطمینانی در بازار ارز استفاده شد. نتایج نشان دهنده آن است که نااطمینانی تورم صرفاً در افق میان­مدت و بلندمدت در بازه زمانی 1376 – 1372 واکنش تهاجمی سیاست پولی را به دنبال داشته است. ابزار سیاست پولی در اقتصاد ایران کارکرد لازم را در کاهش نااطمینانی بخش حقیقی ندارد و در میان­مدت و بلندمدت عقیم است. نتایج نشان دهنده ارتباط شدید میان نااطمینانی در بازار ارز و ابزار سیاست پولی است. به طوری که در بلندمدت، نااطمینانی در بازار ارز به رشد بیش­تر پایه پولی منجر می­شود. فرآیند مذکور ریشه در سرکوب نرخ ارز توسط سیاست­گذار برای لنگر کردن انتظارات تورمی و کسب اعتبار دارد. این رویه، منجر به رشد کل­های پولی و شدت یافتن نااطمینانی در بازار ارز می­شود که نتیجه آن بلاموضوع شدن سیاست پولی است. مقاله حاضر می­کوشد با کالبدشکافی رابطه میان متغیرها در حوزه زمان – فرکانس، اطلاعات و پیشنهادهای سیاستی مفیدی ارائه نماید. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainties in Iran: an Empirical Approach with Time-Frequency Analysis

نویسنده [English]

  • Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Guilan, Rasht
چکیده [English]

Uncertainty in the key variables of macroeconomics with disruptions in the decision-making of economic agents and distortions in the resource allocation mechanism is considered an important challenge for Iran's economy.  Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies to reduce uncertainty. So, the current research examines the effectiveness of monetary policy in reducing macroeconomic uncertainties during the period of 1989-2021. For this purpose, continuous wavelet transformation was used to discover the dynamics of the relationship between monetary policy and inflation uncertainty, economic growth uncertainty and foreign currency market uncertainty. The results show that the uncertainty of inflation only in the medium run and long run in the period of 1993-1997 has resulted in the aggressive reaction of the monetary policy. The monetary policy tool in Iran’s economy is not functioning effectively in reducing the uncertainty of the real sector. So that it cannot play a role in the medium and long run. The results show a strong relationship between uncertainty in the currency market and monetary policy instruments. So that in the long run, uncertainty in the foreign currency market leads to a greater growth of the monetary base.The mentioned process occurs due to the suppression of the exchange rate by the policy maker to anchor the Inflation expectations and gain credit. This procedure leads to the growth of monetary totals and the intensification of uncertainty in the foreign currency market, which results in the monetary policy becoming irrelevant. This article tries to provide useful information and policy suggestions by analyzing the relationship between variables in the time-frequency domain

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary policy
  • Uncertainty
  • Iran's economy

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