تحلیل تأثیر ناترازی بانکی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکترای علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

هدف: باتوجه‌به وابستگی اقتصاد به بانک‌ها به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین منبع تأمین مالی بنگاه‌ها، عملکرد سیستم بانکی، بر اقتصاد تأثیرگذار است. عملکرد سیستم بانکی معمولاً با ترازنامه آن قابل‌بررسی است. این پژوهش به دنبال بررسی این واقعیت است که وقتی این صورت مالی مهم ناتراز می‌شود، رفاه اقتصادی چگونه متأثر می‌شود.

روش پژوهش: باتوجه‌به اهمیت این موضوع، در مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از رهیافت خودرگرسیونی با وقفه‌های توزیعی، تأثیر ناترازی بانکی بر رفاه اقتصادی طی دوره زمانی 1357 تا 1401 در دو قالب برآورد شده است. به‌ نحوی‌که در قالب نخست رشد بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی به‌عنوان ناترازی بانکی و در قالب دوم جهت استحکام نتایج، رشد بدهی دولت به بانک مرکزی بکار رفته است. برای محاسبه رفاه اقتصادی از شاخص ترکیبی رفاه استفاده شده است.

یافته‌ها: روند حرکتی شاخص رفاه اقتصادی گویای ‌آن ‌است که در دوره مورد بررسی، دارای نوسان و از میانگینی معادل 26/40 برخوردار ‌است؛ همچنین روند رشد بدهی بانک‌ها به بانک مرکزی و رشد بدهی دولت به بانک مرکزی، دارای نوسان بوده و به ترتیب دارای میانگین 29/1 و 56/3- هستند. نتایج برآورد در بلندمدت بیانگر اثر منفی ناترازی بانکی (بر مبنای هر دو شاخص) بر رفاه اقتصادی است. همچنین درآمد سرانه و رشد اقتصادی با تأثیر مثبت و تورم با تأثیر منفی بر رفاه اقتصادی همراه است.

نتیجه‌گیری: پیرو نتایج حاصله، اطمینان از ثبات و سلامت ترازنامه بانکی برای حفظ ثبات اقتصادی و ترویج رشد پایدار و در نهایت افزایش رفاه اقتصادی بسیار مهم است. بدین لحاظ توصیه می‌شود که برای کاهش ناترازی بانکی ...

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Impact of Banking Imbalance on Economic Welfare in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Shahriar Zeroki 1
  • Sahar Nasrnejad Nesheli 2
  • Fatemeh Hajitabar 2
1 Associate Professor in Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 PhD. Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Allameh Tabatabai, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Given the economy’s dependence on banks as the primary source of corporate financing, the performance of the banking system significantly affects the broader economy. Banking system performance is typically assessed through its balance sheet. This study examines the reality that when this crucial financial statement becomes imbalanced, how economic welfare is affected.
Considering the importance of this issue, the present study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate the impact of banking imbalance on economic welfare over the period 1978–2022  in two frameworks. In the first framework, bank debt growth to the central bank is used as an indicator of banking imbalance, while in the second framework, government debt growth to the central bank is employed to strengthen the robustness of the results. The composite economic welfare index is used to measure economic welfare.
The movement of the economic welfare index indicates that during the study period, it fluctuated around an average of 40.26. Similarly, the growth of bank debt to the central bank and government debt to the central bank showed fluctuations, with averages of 1.29 and -3.56, respectively. Long-term estimation results indicate that banking imbalance (based on both indicators) has a negative effect on economic welfare. Additionally, per capita income and economic growth have positive effects, while inflation has a negative impact on economic welfare.
 Based on the results, ensuring the stability and soundness of bank balance sheets is crucial for maintaining economic stability, promoting sustainable growth, and ultimately enhancing economic welfare. Therefore, it is recommended that measures to reduce banking imbalance be implemented, such as reforming the banking system, converting non-productive bank assets into securities, preventing the transformation of banks’ overdrafts into credit lines, reducing mandatory lending, and ensuring adequate bank capital.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Banking Imbalance
  • Economic Welfare
  • Iran

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 48
شماره بهار 1405
اسفند 1404
صفحه 61-88

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