بررسی تاثیر تحریم‌های اقتصادی و نوسانات نرخ ارز بر واردات کشور ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه لرستان، لرستان، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد پولی، دانشگاه الزهرا (س)، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

تحریم‌های اقتصادی علیه اقتصاد ایران، به طور اجتناب­ناپذیری ارزش پول ملی و جریان تجارت بین­المللی را تحت تاثیر قرار داده­اند. از طرفی تحریم‌ها بر انتظارات مردم اثر گذاشته و موجب افزایش نوسانات نرخ ارز نیز شده­اند. با درک این اهمیت، هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی تاثیر تحریم‌های اقتصادی و نوسانات نرخ ارز بر واردات کشور ایران طی دوره 1402-1370 است. این تحقیق حاوی دو نوآوری است؛ اول اینکه تحریم­های اعمال شده علیه اقتصاد ایران را با سه درجه­بندی مختلف خفیف، متوسط و قوی؛ لحاظ کرده و دیگر اینکه چون عوامل مرئی و نامرئی متعددی می­توانند بر واردات یک کشور موثر باشند، از مدل رگرسیون فازی برای برازش مدل استفاده کرده است. یافته­های این پژوهش نشان می­دهد که با افزایش نوسانات نرخ ارز، ریسک معاملات برای واردکنندگان افزایش یافته و به همین دلیل جریان ورودی واردات کاهشی شده است. همچنین ضرایب فازی متغیرهای مجازی تحریم نیز نشان دهنده این است که با اعمال تحریم­ها، علاوه بر محدودیت جریان ورودی کالاها و خدمات به کشور، هزینه­های تمام شده کالاهای وارداتی نیز افزایش یافته و به همین دلیل نسبت وارادت به تولید ناخالص داخلی ایران، کاهش محسوسی را تجربه کرده است. در مقایسه ضرایب فازی مثلثی متقارن مدل مورد مطالعه نیز می­توان نتیجه گرفت که اصلی­ترین مانع واردات به کشور ایران، تحریم­های با شدّت قوی هستند که همچون دیواری بلند بر سایر عوامل سایه افکنده و جریان ورودی کالاها و خدمات را به شدت کاهش داده­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Impact of Economic Sanctions and Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Iran’s Imports

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mostafa Shokri 1
  • Kobra Farhadi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
2 PhD student in Monetary Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Economic sanctions against Iran have inevitably affected the national currency value and the flow of international trade. At the same time, sanctions have influenced public expectations, contributing to increased exchange rate volatility. Recognizing the significance of these factors, the present study aims to examine the impact of economic sanctions and exchange rate fluctuations on Iran’s imports over the period 1991–2023. This study contains two key innovations. First, it categorizes the sanctions imposed on Iran’s economy into three levels of intensity: mild, moderate, and strong. Second, because multiple visible and invisible factors can affect a country’s imports, a fuzzy regression model is employed to fit the data and capture these complexities. The findings indicate that increasing exchange rate volatility raises transaction risks for importers, which in turn reduces the volume of imported goods. Additionally, the fuzzy coefficients of the dummy variables for sanctions show that the imposition of sanctions, besides limiting the inflow of goods and services, increases the total cost of imported goods. As a result, the ratio of imports to Iran’s GDP has experienced a significant decline. Furthermore, a comparison of the symmetric triangular fuzzy coefficients in the model suggests that the primary barrier to imports in Iran is high-intensity sanctions. These strong sanctions act as a substantial obstacle, overshadowing other factors and sharply reducing the inflow of goods and services.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sanctions
  • Uncertainty
  • Exchange Rate
  • Imports
  • Fuzzy Logic

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 48
شماره بهار 1405
اسفند 1404
صفحه 89-110

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