مدل‌سازی‌های چندگانه اثرات نامتقارن اندازه دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران: رهیافت پویای آستانه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش، بررسی چگونگی اثرگذاری شوک‌های هزینه‌ای دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران است. بدین منظور از مدل‌سازی چندوجهی بر پایه الگوی رشد رام (1986) و روش رگرسیون آستانه‌ای هانسن بهره گرفته شده است. در این چارچوب، دو شاخص برای اندازه دولت در نظرگرفته شده است: نسبت هزینه‌های جاری دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی (GS1) و نسبت هزینه‌های تملک دارایی‌های سرمایه‌ای دولت به تولید ناخالص داخلی (GS2). یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که شوک‌های ناشی از هزینه‌های سرمایه‌ای دولت اثر مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی ایران دارند، در حالی که چنین اثری برای هزینه‌های جاری دولت تأیید نمی‌شود. همچنین، نتایج حاکی از آن است که منحنی بارس (آرمی) در اقتصاد ایران طی دوره 1340 تا 1402 تحقق نیافته است؛ به این معنا که درهیچیک از اندازه های کوچک، متوسط و بزرگ دولت، رابطه اندازه دولت با رشد اقتصادی منفی نمی‌شود و ما شاهد منحنیU  معکوس در این رابطه نیستیم. هرچند در مقیاس‌های بزرگ دولت، کاهش کارایی و اثربخشی مشاهده می‌گردد ولی این رابطه همچنان مثبت است.از دیگر یافته‌های مهم این پژوهش آن است که هزینه‌های دولت، چه در بخش جاری و چه در بخش سرمایه‌ای، آثار جانبی مثبتی بر تولیدات بخش غیردولتی برجای می‌گذارند. این آثار در هزینه‌های جاری با افزایش اندازه دولت کاهش می‌یابد (کاهش کشش)، در حالی که در هزینه‌های سرمایه‌ای با بزرگ‌تر شدن اندازه دولت تقویت می‌شود (افزایش کشش).

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Multiple Modeling of the Asymmetric Effects of Government Size on Iran's Economic Growth: A Dynamic Threshold Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farhad Vafaee Sedehi 1
  • Mehrzad Ebrahimi 2
  • Hashem Zare 2
1 PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics and Management, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this research is to examine how government spending shocks affect Iran's economic growth.To achieve this goal, multivariate modeling of Ram's (1986) growth patterns and Hansen's threshold regression method have been used. The threshold criteria used in this study for government size are: the ratio of government current expenditures to GDP (GS1) and the ratio of government capital asset acquisition costs to GDP (GS2). The findings of this study confirm the positive effect of government spending shocks on capital asset acquisition costs and their lack of confirmation in the area of current spending on Iran's economic growth. Also, the results indicate that the Bars (Army) curve has not been realized in the Iranian economy during the period 1961 to 2023; meaning that in none of the small, medium, and large government sizes, the relationship between government size and economic growth is negative, and we do not witness an inverted U curve in this relationship. However, this effect is faced with a decrease in efficiency and effectiveness in large government sizes. The positive side effects of government spending in the areas of current spending and capital asset acquisition on non-government sector production are another finding of this study, which is faced with a decrease in elasticity in the current spending sector from small to large government and an increase in elasticity in the capital asset acquisition sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Government Size
  • Economic growth
  • Threshold Regression Model
  • The ARS(Army)Curve

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 48
شماره بهار 1405
اسفند 1404
صفحه 201-230

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