مقایسه اثرات سرریز سیاست‌های پولی و مالی چین و ایران بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا همدان، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تغییرات در سیاست‌های پولی و مالی چین می‌تواند از طریق تغییرات در نرخ ارز، جریان سرمایه و انتظارات بازار، اثرات قابل ملاحظه‌ای بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران داشته باشد. از سوی دیگر، ایران به عنوان یک اقتصاد در حال توسعه و وابسته به درآمدهای نفتی، نیز از طریق سیاست‌های پولی و مالی داخلی خود، بر متغیرهای حقیقی مانند صادرات، واردات، اشتغال و سرمایه‌گذاری تأثیر می‌گذارد.
این پژوهش به بررسی و مقایسه اثرات سرریز سیاست‌های پولی و مالی چین و ایران بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی ایران با استفاده از رویکرد خودرگرسیون برداری با پارامترهای متغیر در طول زمان (TVP-VAR) و با استفاده از داده‌های ماهیانه طی دوره 2022-1999 پرداخته است. متغیرهای مورد استفاده در مدل برای ایران شامل نرخ ارز حقیقی مؤثر (REXCH)، اشتغال (EMP)، صادرات کالاها و خدمات (EXP)، واردات (IMP)، تشکیل سرمایه ثابت ناخالص (GFCF)، رشد عرضه پول (M2) و مخارج کل دولتی (EXPEN) است. برای چین و ایران، رشد عرضه پول و مخارج کل دولتی نیز به عنوان شاخص‌های سیاست پولی و مالی در نظر گرفته شدند.
یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که تأثیر شوک‌های سیاستی چین بر اقتصاد ایران محدود و کوتاه‌مدت بوده است. در مقابل، شوک‌های سیاستی داخلی ایران، به ویژه رشد نقدینگی و کل مخارج دولت، به عنوان منابع اصلی نوسانات اقتصادی کشور محسوب می‌شوند.
رشد نقدینگی ایران پایدارترین و تأثیرگذارترین متغیر در انتقال نوسانات به سایر بخش‌ها بوده است و افزایش نقدینگی با فشار تورمی، کاهش قدرت خرید، بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز و تضعیف اشتغال همراه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of the Spillover Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies of China and Iran on Iran’s Macroeconomic Variables

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeedeh Ahmadi 1
  • Seyed Ehsan Hosseinidoust 2
  • Abolfazl Shahabadi 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
3 Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Science and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Changes in China’s monetary and fiscal policies can significantly affect Iran’s macroeconomic variables through channels such as exchange rate fluctuations, capital flows, and market expectations. On the other hand, Iran, as a developing economy dependent on oil revenues, is also influenced by its own domestic monetary and fiscal policies, which affect real variables such as exports, imports, employment, and investment. Accordingly, this study aims to examine and compare the spillover effects of monetary and fiscal policies of China and Iran on Iran’s macroeconomic variables.
This research investigates the spillover effects of monetary and fiscal policies of China and Iran on Iran’s macroeconomic variables using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach, based on monthly data over the period 1999–2022. The variables used for Iran in the model include the real effective exchange rate (REXCH), employment (EMP), exports of goods and services (EXP), imports (IMP), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), money supply growth (M2), and total government expenditure (EXPEN). For both China and Iran, money supply growth and total government expenditure are also considered as indicators of monetary and fiscal policy.
The results indicate that China’s policy shocks have a limited, short-term impact on the Iranian economy. In contrast, Iran’s domestic policy shocks, particularly changes in the money supply and total government expenditure, are the main drivers of economic fluctuations in the country.
Money supply growth in Iran is the most persistent and influential variable in transmitting fluctuations across economic sectors. Increases in the money supply are associated with inflationary pressures, reduced purchasing power, exchange rate instability, and weaker employment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Money supply growth
  • Monetary policy
  • Fiscal policy
  • Total government expenditure

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 49
شماره تابستان سال 1405
خرداد 1405
صفحه 141-168

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