بررسی تأثیر حاکمیتی و فساد اقتصادی بر رفاه اقتصادی در کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعه با به‌کارگیری مدل حد آستانه‌ای ملایم (PSTR)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد واحد مرکزی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکزی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رفاه اقتصادی از شاخص‌های مهم ارزیابی عملکرد اقتصادی و اجتماعی کشورهاست و تحت تأثیر عوامل نهادی، انسانی، فناورانه و اقتصاد کلان قرار دارد. هدف این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر حکمرانی خوب و فساد اقتصادی بر رفاه اقتصادی در ۱۸ کشور منتخب درحال‌توسعه طی دوره ۲۰۰۰ تا ۲۰۲۲ است. برای این منظور، از الگوی رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی استفاده شده است. در این مطالعه، شاخص توسعه انسانی به‌عنوان نماینده رفاه اقتصادی، شاخص حکمرانی خوب به‌عنوان نماینده کیفیت نهادی رسمی و شاخص فساد اقتصادی به‌عنوان نماینده کیفیت نهادی غیررسمی در نظر گرفته شده است. همچنین متغیرهای تحصیلات، امید به زندگی، نرخ رشد جمعیت، اشتراک تلفن همراه، نرخ بیکاری و نرخ تورم به‌عنوان متغیرهای کنترلی وارد مدل شده‌اند.
نتایج آزمون ایستایی نشان داد که متغیرهای پژوهش در تفاضل اول ایستا هستند. همچنین نتایج آزمون خطی‌بودن و معیارهای برازش، وجود رابطه غیرخطی و آستانه‌ای میان متغیرهای نهادی و رفاه اقتصادی را تأیید کرد. بر اساس نتایج، فساد اقتصادی نسبت به حکمرانی خوب، متغیر انتقال مناسب‌تری بوده و مدل دارای دو مکان آستانه‌ای به‌عنوان الگوی بهینه انتخاب شده است. یافته‌ها نشان داد که اثر متغیرها بر رفاه اقتصادی در رژیم‌های مختلف یکسان نیست؛ به‌گونه‌ای که در رژیم بالا، تحصیلات اثر مثبت و معنادار و نرخ تورم اثر منفی و معنادار بر رفاه اقتصادی دارد. بنابراین، کاهش فساد، تقویت سرمایه انسانی و کنترل تورم می‌تواند نقش مهمی در ارتقای رفاه اقتصادی کشورهای درحال‌توسعه داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Study of the Impact of Governance and Economic Corruption on Economic Welfare in Selected Developing Countries using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) Threshold Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Camellia Aman 1
  • Ali Akbar Khosrovinejad Akbar Khosrovinejad 2
  • Gudratullah Imam Vardi 3
  • Marjan Daman Keshideh 3
1 PhD Student in Econometrics, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Economic welfare is one of the key indicators for evaluating the economic and social performance of countries and is influenced by institutional, human, technological, and macroeconomic factors. This study aims to examine the impact of good governance and economic corruption on economic welfare in 18 selected developing countries over the period 2000 to 2022. For this purpose, a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model has been employed. In this study, the Human Development Index is considered as a proxy for economic welfare, the good governance index as a proxy for formal institutional quality, and the economic corruption index as a proxy for informal institutional quality. In addition, the model includes the control variables education, life expectancy, population growth rate, mobile phone subscription, unemployment rate, and inflation rate.
The stationarity test results showed that the study variables are stationary at first differences. Furthermore, the results of the linearity test and the goodness-of-fit criteria confirmed the existence of a nonlinear, threshold relationship between institutional variables and economic welfare. Based on the results, economic corruption was found to be a more appropriate transition variable than good governance, and a model with two threshold regimes was selected as the optimal specification. The findings indicate that the effects of the variables on economic welfare differ across regimes. In the high regime, education has a positive and significant effect, while inflation has a negative and significant effect. Therefore, reducing corruption, strengthening human capital, and controlling inflation can play an important role in improving economic welfare in developing countries.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Good governance
  • Economic corruption
  • Economic welfare
  • Inflation rate
  • Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 49
شماره تابستان سال 1405
خرداد 1405
صفحه 1-26

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