Analyzing and Examining the Impact of U.S. Economic Sanctions on Business Cycles in the Economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management & Accounting, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran

Abstract

Today, Iran faces the issue of economic sanctions. These sanctions have been imposed by various institutions and countries in different forms against the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1979. Economic sanctions have affected large sectors of the Iranian economy and have created new conditions within the economic structure of the country. One area of impact of these sanctions is the flow of business cycles in Iran. The objective of this paper is to examine the extent of the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on business cycle flows in Iran. To quantify the effects of economic sanctions, an Economic Sanctions Index was developed. For this purpose, 20 experts and specialists in the field of economic sanctions were consulted, and their opinions were collected using fuzzy questionnaires. Then, using fuzzy logic in MATLAB, the Economic Sanctions Index was calculated for the period 1979–2022. Subsequently, using the sanctions index, the impact of economic sanctions on business cycle flows was analyzed using the autoregressive method over the period 1979–2022 in EViews. The results indicate that economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran have led to deeper recessions and longer recession periods in the Iranian economy.

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References

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