An Analysis of OPEC Stability: Sacrifice Ratio Approach and Effect of Iran Economic Sanctions

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Isfahan

2 Associate professor of Economics, University of Isfahan

3 MA in Energy Economics, Shahid Ashrafi Esfahani

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the stability of OPEC, based on approach of Danielsen's sacrifice ratio and the impact of Iran economic sanctions. For this purpose two concepts called the reserves sacrifice ratio and the capacity sacrifice ratio on Danielsen model framework have been used for investigating the stability of OPEC. Relationship between sacrifice ratios and variables such as population, gross domestic product (GDP), production and oil production capacities of all members of OPEC have been reviewed and analyzed. Iran sanctions as an important factor influencing on amount of sacrifice ratios and totally OPEC stability have been studied. Period of study has been chosen from 2000 to 2014. The results of this study show that during the examined period, there is a meaningful and negative correlation between population and sacrifice ratios. There is a meaningful and positive correlation between oil reserves and sacrifice ratio too. OPEC countries with large oil reserves have a tendency to restrict extraction of crude oil reserves. There is a meaningful and positive correlation between Iran economic sanctions and sacrifice ratio. Iran's oil production capacity has been reduced due to sanctions against Iran and consequently sacrifice ratios of reserves and oil capacities have been increased. According to results of this research there is no evidence to suggest OPEC collapse. As a result of this study, OPEC still considered a stable organization. 

Keywords

References

  1. ستقامت، فاطمه (1383). اوپک (سازمان کشورهای صادرکننده نفت). تهران: انتشارات وزارت امور خارجه.
  2. اشرف زاده، حمید، و مهرگان، نادر (1378). اقتصاد سنجی پانل دیتا. تهران: موسسه تحقیقات تعاون دانشگاه تهران.
  3. انوری، ابراهیم، و زراء نژاد، منصور (1384). کاربرد داده­های ترکیبی در روش­­های اقتصادسنجی. فصلنامه بررسی­های اقتصادی، 2(4)، 52-21.  
  4. آرغا، لیلا (1390). بررسی تحریم بخش نفت و گاز ایران، با استفاده از نظریه بازی­ها. پایان­نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تربت مدرس.
  5. توحیدی فرد، محمد (1381). ضمانت اجراهای کیفری منشور ملل متحد، تهران. مرکز چاپ و انتشارات وزارت امور خارجه.
  6. جمشیدی رودباری، مستانه (1387). بررسی علل تطابق نیافتن مدل­های اقتصادی رفتار اوپک در بلندمدت از دیدگاه تحولات بازار نفت و ویژگی­های این سازمان. فصلنامه پژوهش‌ها و سیاست­های اقتصادی، 16(47)، 43-25.
  7. عبدلی، قهرمان (1392). کاربرد نظریه فیرون در بررسی پایداری اوپک: با رویکرد نظریه بازی­های تکراری. فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، 6(20)، 56-33.
  8. گجراتی ، دامودار (1378). مبانی اقتصادسنجی. ترجمه حمید ابریشمی، تهران، انتشارات دانشگاه تهران.
  9. لیارد، پی.آر.جی.، و والترز، ا. (1388). تئوری اقتصاد خرد. ترجمه عباس شاکری، نشرنی.
  10. نظری عدلی، نوید، و خاکستری، مرضیه (1394). تحلیل رویکرد ایران در بازار نفت با استفاده از بازی­­های همکارانه و بررسی اثر تحریم­ها بر درآمدهای نفتی. فصلنامه تحقیقات مدل­سازی اقتصادی، 6(21)، 219-194.
  1. Almoguera, P., & Herrera, A. (2010). Testig for the cartel in OPEC: noncooperative collusion or just noncooperative. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 27(1), 144–68.
  2. Baltagi, H.B. (2005). Economic analysis of panel data. London: John Wiley & Sons. Ltd .Third Edition.
  3. BP (2015). BP statistical review of world energy. Centeral Intelligence    Agency, Office of Economic Research, International oil Devlopment. Various issues.
  4. Danielsen, A. (1980). the theory and measurement of OPEC stability. Southern Economic Journal, 47(1), 51-65.
  5. Danielsen, A. (1976). Cartel rivalry and the world price of oil. Southern Economic Journa, 42(3), 407-415.
  6. Danielson, A., & Kim, S. (1988). OPEC stability: an empirical assessment. Energy Economics, 10(3), 174-184.
  7. Ezzati, A. (1978). World energy markets and OPEC stability. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 132-149.
  8. Ezzati, A. (1987). Future OPEC price and production strategies as affected by its capacity to absorb oil revenues. European Economic Review, 8(2), 107-138.
  9. Gatley, D., & Javid, M. (2014). Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market. Energy Policy, 64, 209-225.
  10. Griffin, J. M. (1988). OPEC behavior; a test of alternative hypothesis. American economic Review, 75(5), 954-963.
  11. Griffin, J. M. (1988). OPEC behavior; a test of alternative hypothesis. American economic Review, 75(5), 954-963.
  12. Gurcan G. (1996). Is OPEC a cartel? evidence from cointegration and causality tests. The Energy Journal, 17(2), 43-57.
  13. Kisswani, K. (2016). Does OPEC act as a cartel? empirical investigation of coordination behavior. Energy Policy, 97,171-180.
  14. Noguera, j. P. R. A. (2007). OPEC and the international oil market: can a cartel fuel the engine of economic development?. International journal of Industerial Maganizath, 25(0), 187-199.
  15. Noke, V. (1999). Cartel stability under capacity constraints: the traditional view restored. London School of Economics and Politica Science, NOEI/23.
  16. Okullo, S. J., & Reynes, F. (2016). Imperfect cartelization in OPEC. VU University Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM).
  17. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (2005-2015). ISSN. 475 – 0608.
  18. Pachauri, R.K. (1980). The political economy of global energy. John Hopkins university press, Baltimure, 66-69.
  19. Torbat, A. (2005). Impact of the US trade mind financial sanctions on Iran. The world Economy, John Wiley and Sons. 28(3), 407-433.
  20. International monetary fund world, IMF Data (2014).

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics