1
Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, University of Tabriz
2
Associate Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz
Abstract
The defects of growth models and the methods of examining relevant empirical evidence, as well as the multiplicity of sources and factors of economic growth, have led to uncertainty about the accuracy of the model specification and impeded consensus among researchers about the key determinants of economic growth. The purpose of this paper is to determine the most important growth factors in OIC member states. For this purpose, a sample of these countries has been selected during period 1975 - 2015 and using the Bayesian Maximum Likelihood Approach (BML) in the context of panel data, among the many factors that can affect growth, endogenously and through various exams in many repetitions, the factors that have the greatest impact are selected and introduced as the robust factors. According to the results, saving rates (SR), foreign direct investment (FDI), investment (ISH), total factors productivity (TFP), and research and development expenditures (R & D) have had the greatest impact on economic growth in these countries. The results could be used to build appropriate patterns for explaining economic growth issues in OIC member states and better management of the economic growth process.
Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2016). The race between machine and man: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares and employment. (No. w22252). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Aghion, P. & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica 60(2), 323-351.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.
Baccaro, L., & Pontusson, J. (2016). Rethinking comparative political economy: the growth model perspective. Politics & Society, 44(2), 175-207.
Bahmani, M, Hasankhani, M & Shakibaee, A (2016).
The effect of technology spillovers from foreign direct investment on labor productivity in manufacturing in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Industrial Economics Researches, 1(2), 92-115 (In Persian)
Barro, R. J. (2003). Determinants of economic growth in a panel of countries. Annals of economics and finance, 4, 231-274.
Doppelhofer, G., Miller, R. I., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2000). Determinants of long-term growth: A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. (No. w7750). National Bureau of Economic Research
Draper, D. (1995). Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty. Journal of the Royal Statistical Societ: Series B (Methodological), 45-97.
Durlauf, S. N., Kourt ellos, A., & Tan, C. M. (2008). Are any growth theories robust? The Economic Journal, 118(527), 329-346.
Easterly, William, (1993). How much do distortions affect growth? Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 363–389.
Fernandez, C., Ley, E., & Steel, M. F. (2001). Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging. Journal of Econometrics, 100(2), 381-427.
Ghosh, J. K., & Samanta, T. (2001). Model selection–an overview. Current Science, 1135-1144.
Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Quality ladders in the theory of growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(1), 43-61.
Jalalabadi, A., & Bahrami, J. (2010). Factors determining economic growth in various groups of countries (A new approach to determining factors of economic growth). Quantitative Economics, 7(1), 23-51 (In Persian)
Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of Probability. 3rd edn, Oxford: The Clarendon Prs.
Koop, G., (2003). Bayesian econometric, New York, John Wiley and Sons.
Kormendi, R. C., & Meguire, P. G. (1985). Macroeconomic determinants of growth: cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary economics, 16(2), 141-163.
Leamer, E. E. (1983). Let's take the con out of econometrics. The American Economic Review, 73(1), 31-43.
Leon-Gonzalez, R., & Vinayagathasan, T. (2015). Robust determinants of growth in Asian developing economies: A Bayesian panel data model averaging approach. Journal of Asian Economics, 36, 34-46.
Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. The American economic review, 942-963.
Lucas, R. E. (1998). On the mechanics of economic development. Econometric Society Monographs, 29, 61-70.
Magnus, J. R., Powell, O., & Prüfer, P. (2010). A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics. Journal of Econometrics, 154(2), 139-153.
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437.
Mehrara, M., & Rezaei Bargshadi, S, (2016). The determinants of Economic growth in Iran based on Bayesian model averaging and weighted averaging least square. Quarterly Journal of Research on Economic Growth and Development, 6 (23), 114-89. (In Persian).
Moral-Benito, E. (2012). Determinants of economic growth: a Bayesian panel data approach. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(2), 566-579.
Nafziger, E. Wayne. (2012). Economic Development. Fifth edition published by Cambridge University Press.
Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with Fixed Effects. Econometrica, 49(6), 1417-1426.
Raftery, A. E. (1996b). Approximate Bayes factors and accounting for model uncertainty in generalised linear models. Biometrika, 83(2), 251-266.
Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A mathematical theory of saving. The economic journal, 38(152), 543-559.
Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9, 131–165.
Romer, D. (2016). Advanced macroeconomics. Mc raw -hill companies.
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1997). Fundamental sources of long-run growth. The American economic review, 87(2), 184-188.
Sala-i-Martin, X., Doppelhoffer, G., & Miller, R. (2001). Cross-sectional growth regressions: Robustness and Bayesian model averaging. Columbia University. Mimeographed.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
Todaro, M., & Smith, S. (2003). Development economics. Pearson education.
Zellner, A. (1986). On assessing prior distributions and Bayesian regression analysis with g-prior distributions. Bayesian inference and decision techniques: Essays in Honor of Bruno De Finetti, 6, 233-243.
Besharat, A., Ranjpour, R., & Sadeghi, S. K. (2018). The Study of the Most Effective Factors Explaining Economic Growth in OIC Countries: Bayesian Panel Likelihood Ppproach. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 5(3), 239-263.
MLA
Ali Besharat; Reza Ranjpour; Seyed Kamal Sadeghi. "The Study of the Most Effective Factors Explaining Economic Growth in OIC Countries: Bayesian Panel Likelihood Ppproach". Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 5, 3, 2018, 239-263.
HARVARD
Besharat, A., Ranjpour, R., Sadeghi, S. K. (2018). 'The Study of the Most Effective Factors Explaining Economic Growth in OIC Countries: Bayesian Panel Likelihood Ppproach', Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 5(3), pp. 239-263.
VANCOUVER
Besharat, A., Ranjpour, R., Sadeghi, S. K. The Study of the Most Effective Factors Explaining Economic Growth in OIC Countries: Bayesian Panel Likelihood Ppproach. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2018; 5(3): 239-263.
)