Comparison of Logistic, Harvey-logistic and Harvey Models for forecasting electricity consumption of Consumer Sectors in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper



According to the strong relationship between a country's economic growth and energy consumption and also due to high flexibility of Electricity and the rising share of its in countrie’s total energy - particularly in the developing world, Predict of future trend of electricity consumption, plays an important role in formulation of energy policy. There have been a number of forecasting models based on various forms of the logistic growth curve. This paper investigates the effectiveness of two forms of Harvey models and a Logistic model for forecasting electricity consumption in  Iran for the period 1391-1400. The three growth curve models are applied to the Domestic, Agriculture, Industry and service sectors and Total electricity consumption in Iran. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Durbin Watson statistic (DW) are used in the comparison of  the three models; In order to investigate goodness of fit to historical data and forecasting accuracy. The comparison revealed that the Harvey model is a very appropriate candidate for forecasting electricity consumption in Iran.