Investigation of Chaotic Behavior of Economic Growth in Iran and Phase Space Reconstruction

Document Type : Research Paper



Non-linear dynamic systems show different behaviors so that they can be applied to interpret a variety of seemingly random economic phenomena. The chaos theory provides a new approach to invest the trend changes of non-linear dynamic systems in monetary and financial markets. This paper investigates the behavior of economic growth in Iran using the chaos theory, BDS and bootstrap test, maximum Lyapunov exponent, the Hurst exponent and phase space reconstruction. The aim of this study is to examine whether economic growth has an independent identical distribution or follows a non-linear (random or chaotic) process. The results of BDS test and the Hurst exponent indicate that economic growth has a non-linear process. The results of two chaotic tests include maximum Lyapunov exponent and phase space reconstruction also confirm the existence of chaos in GDP.