Investigating the Effects of Institutional-Structural Quality on Iran's Non-oil Exports: Time-Varying Models

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

4 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran


Considering the importance of non-oil exports in state development plans, the present paper examined the nonlinear effects of real exchange rate, the value added of the industry and mining sector, non-oil export, and the institutional-structural quality on Iran non-oil exports. The results from the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) and time-varying parameters (TVP) methods on seasonal data of 1997-2015 timespan showed the symmetrical, positive effects of the institutional-structural quality and the state non-oil exports on the increase in the non-oil exports, rising in the course of time. In addition, the final effect of the real exchange rate on the state non-oil exports depends on the depression and prosperity conditions in the economy and can be asymmetrically positive or negative. Finally, the value added growth in the state industry and mining sector had a positive effect on the non-oil exports in the entire timespan studied; the only difference was that these symmetrical effects were stronger during periods of economic prosperity.


Main Subjects

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