پایداری ناترازی مالی و بدهی عمومی تحت شرایط سیاست مالی نامتقارن در اوپک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

2 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه مازندران، مازندران، ایران

چکیده

با توجه‌ به اینکه ناترازی مالی یکی از مشکلات اساسی دولت­ها در اکثر کشورها موردتوجه قرار گرفته است، امروزه جامعه بین­الملل اهمیت بسیاری برای ناترازی مالی کشورها قائل شده و پایین ‌بودن آن به یکی از شاخص­های مهم سلامت مالیه عمومی تبدیل گردیده است، از آنجا که در فرایند تعدیل بودجه انتظار عدم تقارن وجود دارد؛ لذا هدف این مقاله بررسی پایداری ناترازی مالی و بدهی عمومی تحت شرایط سیاست مالی نامتقارن در اوپک طی دورة زمانی سالانه ۲۰۲۱-۲۰۰۲ بوده است. در این راستا برای آزمون پایداری ناترازی مالی و بدهی عمومی از روش خود­‌رگرسیونی با وقفه­ توزیعی متقارن پانلی و روش خودرگرسیون با وقفه­ توزیعی نامتقارن پانلی غیر خطی استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از پایداری ضعیف ناترازی مالی و بدهی عمومی است. تجزیه‌­و­تحلیل ضرایب نامتقارن با برآورد تابع واکنش مالی، شواهد قوی برای سیاست مالی نامتقارن را بیان می­کند. به‌گونه‌ای که سیاست مالی هم جهت چرخه‌­های تجاری با گرایش تثبیت‌کننده قوی در رونق­های اقتصادی و حالت ناپایدار در رکودهاست. در برابر افزایش نسبت بدهی، دولت­ها به دنبال یکپارچگی مالی هستند، بنابراین این وضعیت شکل ضعیف پایداری را نشان می­دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Sustainability of the Fiscal Imbalance and Public Debt Under Fiscal Policy Asymmetries in Opec

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Farajzade 1
  • Ahmad Jafari Samimi 2
  • Shahryar Zaroki 3
  • Mani Motameni 3
1 PhD student, Department of Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Theoretical Economics, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Energy Economics University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Considering that fiscal imbalance is one of the basic problems of governments in most countries faced by governments in most countries, today, the international Society places significant importance on the fiscal imbalances of countries, and a low level has become one of the important indicators of public finance health. Since there is an expectation of asymmetry in the budget adjustment process, this article aimed to investigate the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in the conditions of asymmetric fiscal policy in OPEC during the annual period of 2002-2021. In this regard, testing for fiscal imbalance and public debt sustainability is used to estimate the symmetric Panel ARDL and asymmetric Panel NARDL. The results indicate that the fiscal imbalance and public debt are on the path of weak sustainability. The analysis of asymmetric coefficients with the estimation of the Fiscal reaction function shows that the Fiscal policy stance is procyclical, with strong stabilization Tendencies in economic booms and an unstable state in recessions. Against upsurges in the debt-to-GDP ratio, authorities have been found to pursue fiscal integration, so this situation shows a weak form of sustainability

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • fiscal imbalance sustainability
  • public debt sustainability
  • fiscal reaction function
  • Non-linear Autoregressive distribution lag panel data
  • asymmetric policy effects

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 12، شماره 44
خرداد 1404
صفحه 1-24

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