اثر آستانه‌ای جهانی شدن بر همگرایی شدت انرژی در منطقه خاورمیانه: تحلیل انتقال ملایم پانلی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت جهانی شدن و ارتباط آن با شدت انرژی، در این مطالعه نقش جهانی­شدن با تاکید بر اثر آستانه­­ای آن بر همگرایی شدت انرژی در کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه طی دوره زمانی 2019-1980 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. جهت بررسی رابطه غیرخطی، مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی (PSTR) بکار گرفته شد. پس انجام آزمون وابستگی مقطعی و ایستایی متغیرهای مدل، با در نظر گرفتن جهانی­شدن به عنوان متغیر انتقال، همزمان ویژگی ناهمگنی، غیرخطی بودن و همبستگی مقطعی متغیرها مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج آزمون خطی بودن، وجود رابطه غیرخطی بین متغیرها را تأیید نمود. همچنین، در نظر گرفتن یک تابع انتقال با یک پارامتر آستانه­ای که بیانگر یک مدل دو رژیمی است، برای تصریح رابطة غیرخطی بین متغیرهای مدل تعیین شد. در نهایت، حد آستانه­ای 697/1 و 874/1 و پارامتر شیب یا سرعت انتقال نیز برابر با 997/226 برآورد شد. همچنین نتایج حاکی از عدم همگرایی شدت انرژی بین کشورها منطقه خاورمیانه ­می­باشد. بنابراین نمی­توان یک سیاست مشترک و یکسان را برای تمام کشورهای منطقه خاورمیانه اجرا نمود

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Threshold Effects of Globalization on Energy Intensity Convergence in the Middle East Region: A Panel Smooth Transition Analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Hassan Tarazkar 1
  • Masoumeh Arabollah Firozjah 2
1 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University
2 Ph. D. Candidate, Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University
چکیده [English]

Given the importance of globalization and its relationship with energy intensity, this study examines the role of globalization with an emphasis on its threshold effect on energy intensity convergence in the Middle East region during 1980-2019. The Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model was used to investigate the non-linear relationship. The simultaneous characteristics of heterogeneity, non-linearity, and cross-sectional correlation of variables were examined, considering globalization as a transmission variable. The results of the linearity test confirmed the existence of a non-linear relationship between the variables. Moreover, considering a threshold transfer function with a threshold parameter indicating a two-regime model was determined to clarify the non-linear relationship between variables of the model. Finally, threshold limits of 1.697 and 1.874 and a slope parameter or transfer rate of 226.997 were estimated. The results also indicate a lack of convergence in energy intensity among countries in the Middle East region. Therefore, it is not possible to create a single energy policy that can be implemented simultaneously for all countries in the Middle East region

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Intensity Convergence
  • PSTR
  • Globalization

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