تحلیل مقایسه‌ ای تأثیر تأمین مالی کسری بودجه دولت از طریق انتشار اوراق مرابحه عام و استقراض از شبکه بانکی بر متغیرهای رشد اقتصادی و تورم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه شهید اشرفی اصفهانی، اصفهان، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

3 مدیر سازمان برنامه و بودجه، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

ابزارهای متعددی برای جبران کسری بودجه دولت و همچنین تأمین مالی شرکت­های دولتی و خصوصی طراحی و منتشر شده است. توجه به مسأله کسری بودجه و راهکاری درست برای تأمین آن و ایجاد بدهی مبتنی بر اصول اقتصادی حائز اهمیت است. از این رو در این مطالعه به مقایسه تأثیر دو روش انتشار اوراق مرابحه عام و استقراض از شبکه بانکی بر رشد اقتصادی و تورم پرداخته شده است. الگوی تحقیق برای تحلیل رشد برگرفته از نظریه رشد سولو سوآن است. روش تحقیق به کار رفته، با توجه به روابط متقابل بین متغیرها و محدودیت دوره انتشار اوراق مرابحه، روش خود­رگرسیون برداری بیزین است که داده­های مورد استفاده به صورت ماهانه ازسال 1398 تا 1401 انتخاب شده است. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، انتشار اوراق مرابحه در ابتدا منجر به کاهش نرخ رشد اقتصادی می‌شود، اما در دوره‌های بعد افزایش می­یابد. در حالیکه، افزایش بدهی دولت به شبکه بانکی منجر به کاهش نرخ رشد اقتصادی می‌شود. اثر اوراق مرابحه بر نرخ تورم در ابتدا مثبت است، اما پس از چند دوره کاهشی می‌شود. اما، اثر انتشار اوراق مرابحه در مقایسه با بدهی دولت به شبکه بانکی بر تورم بیشتر است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparative Analysis of The Effects of Financing Government Budget Deficits Through General Murabaha Bills Versus Borrowing From The Banking System on Economic Growth And Inflation Variables

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohadeseh Aliasgharzadeh 1
  • Mohammad Vaez Barzani 2
  • Mohammadreza Ghasemi 3
  • Seyed Abbas Hosseni ghafar 1
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, shahid Ashrafi Isfahani University, Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
3 Director of the Planning and Budget Organization of Isfahan Province, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Various instruments have been designed and issued to compensate for the government budget deficit and to finance both public and private sector companies. Addressing the budget deficit issue and adopting appropriate solutions for its financing, along with creating debt based on sound economic principles, is of great importance. Accordingly, this study compares the effects of two financing methods, issuance of general Murabaha bonds and borrowing from the banking system, on economic growth and inflation. The research model for analyzing growth derives from the Solow-Swan growth theory. Given the interrelationships between variables and the limited issuance period of Murabaha bonds, the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) method has been employed. The data used are monthly and cover the period from 2019 to 2022. The results show that the issuance of Murabaha bonds initially leads to a decrease in the economic growth rate, but it increases in the subsequent periods. In contrast, increasing government debt to the banking system results in declining economic growth. The effect of Murabaha bonds on the inflation rate is initially positive but decreases after a few periods. However, the inflationary impact of Murabaha bond issuance is greater than that of government debt to the banking system

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financing
  • Murabaha Bills
  • Government Debt
  • Budget deficit
  • Economic Growth
  • Inflation

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 12، شماره 44
خرداد 1404
صفحه 97-118

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