اثر نامتقارن بلایای طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران: رویکرد NARDL در چارچوب نظریه سولو – سوان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه کردستان، کردستان، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه کردستان، کردستان، ایران

3 دانشیارگروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه کردستان، کردستان، ایران

چکیده

دستیابی به نرخ رشد اقتصادی بالا در فرایند توسعه پایدار به معیاری مهم برای افزایش رفاه جامعه، کاهش فقر، نابرابری‌ها و تقویت اقتدار ملی تبدیل شده است. ازاین‌رو، شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر رشد اقتصادی یکی از مسائل اصلی سیاست‌گذاران است. ادبیات نظری نشان می‌دهد عامل‌های غیرقابل‌پیش‌بینی مانند بلایای طبیعی می‌توانند موانع مهمی برای دستیابی به اهداف رشد اقتصادی باشند. بنابراین، مطالعه حاضر برای بررسی این سؤال که بلایای طبیعی چگونه بر رشد اقتصادی تأثیر دارد؟ انجام شده است و خلأ ادبیات نامتقارن در اقتصاد ایران را پر می‌کند. از این‌رو، چارچوب نظری این مطالعه، بر پایه نظریه رشد اقتصادی سولو – سوان بنا شده است. در این راستا مدل‌ پژوهش با استفاده از رویکرد خود توضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده غیرخطی طی دوره زمانی (1401-1359) برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که بلایای‌ طبیعی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت به‌صورت نامتقارن باعث کاهش رشد اقتصادی در ایران شده است. سایر نتایج نیز نشان داد که آزادسازی تجاری و نرخ پس‌انداز سرمایه فیزیکی اثر مثبت و عبارت (n+g+δ) اثر منفی بر رشد اقتصادی دارند. باتوجه‌به نتایج، توصیه می‌شود که سیاست‌های مناسب جهت افزایش تاب‌آوری جامعه و بخش‌های تولیدی کشور برای مقابله با بلایای طبیعی اجرا شود تا جریان رشد پایدار اقتصادی کشور تضمین شود

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Asymmetric Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Growth in Iran: The NARDL Approach within the Framework of the Solow-Swan Theory

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Azizi 1
  • Bakhtiar Javaheri 2
  • Fateh Habibi 3
1 M.A. in Economics Department of Economics, University of Kurdistan, Kurdistan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Kurdistan, Kurdistan, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Kurdistan, Kurdistan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Achieving a high economic growth rate during the process of sustainable development has become a crucial criterion for enhancing societal welfare, reducing poverty and inequality, and strengthening national authority. Therefore, identifying the factors that affect economic growth is a primary issue for policymakers. Theoretical literature suggests that unpredictable factors, such as natural disasters, can pose significant obstacles to achieving economic growth objectives. Thus, the present study was conducted to explore how natural disasters affect economic growth and fill the gap in the literature on asymmetric economics in Iran. The theoretical framework for this study is based on the Solow-Swan economic growth theory. In this context, the research model has been estimated using the NARDL method for the period between 1980 and 2023. The results indicate that natural disasters (NDI) asymmetrically reduce economic growth in Iran in both the short and long term. Further results demonstrate that trade liberalization (TO) and the physical capital savings rate (s) have a positive influence on economic growth, while the term (n + g + δ) negatively impacts economic growth. In light of these findings, it is recommended that suitable policies be implemented to enhance the resilience of society and the nation's productive sectors, thereby effectively addressing natural disasters and ensuring sustainable economic growth for the country

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Growth
  • Natural Disasters
  • Solow-Swan model
  • Iran

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 12، شماره 44
خرداد 1404
صفحه 119-144

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