مقایسه تطبیقی تاثیر تحولات بازار نفت بر بازارهای گاز طبیعی اروپا و آسیا با توجه به جنگ روسیه و اوکراین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد نفت وگاز، دانشگاه صنعت نفت، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت انرژی، دانشگاه صنعت نفت تهران، ایران

چکیده

بحث تأمین و تولید انرژی، به ‌ویژه در زمینه سوخت‌های فسیلی، توازن جدیدی در قدرت جهانی ایجاد کرده است. بحران جنگ روسیه و اوکراین و تحریم‌های بین‌المللی علیه روسیه اهمیت تسلط بر چرخه تولید و توزیع انرژی را نشان می‌دهد. این مطالعه اثر تحولات اخیرقیمت بازار نفت خام (برنت دریای شمال و نفت خام اورال روسیه) را بر قیمت گاز در بازار اتحادیه اروپا و گاز طبیعی مایع (LNG) در بازار آسیا را تحت تاثیر جنگ روسیه و اوکراین مورد بررسی قرار می‌دهد. بدین منظور، در مقاله حاضر از برآورد مدل‌های رگرسیون سری‌های زمانی پویا شامل مدل بلندمدت حداقل مربعات معمولی کاملاً اصلاح‌شده (FMOLS)، حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا (DOLS) و رگرسیون هم‌‌انباشته کانونی (CCR) و الگوی پویای کوتاه‌مدت تصحیح خطا (ECM) با استفاده از داده‌های روزانه از 1 مارس 2021 تا 26 ژانویه 2024، بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج مطالعه حاضر نشان می‌دهد که بازارهای گاز اروپا و آسیا در کوتاه‌مدت به شدت تحت تأثیر نوسانات قیمت گاز، عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی نظیر جنگ روسیه و اوکراین و قیمت نفت قرار دارند. برآورد و تحلیل مدل کوتاه‌مدت نشان می‌دهد که شاخص قیمت گاز مایع  طبیعی در آسیا و وضعیت جنگ مزبور، تأثیرگذارترین عوامل بر بازار گاز اروپا هستند، در حالی که بازار گاز آسیا علاوه بر این عوامل، از تغییرات قیمت گاز اروپا نیز به‌شدت تأثیر می‌پذیرد. بررسی نتایج الگوی بلندمدت نمایانگر آن است که ارتباط قوی و مثبت میان شاخص‌های قیمت گاز اروپا و آسیا تأیید شده و اهمیت این ارتباط در تنظیم بازارهای جهانی انرژی برجسته می‌نماید. جنگ روسیه و اوکراین به عنوان یک متغیر کلیدی ژئوپلیتیکی، تأثیرات معنادار و قابل توجهی بر هر دو بازار گاز داشته است، اما نقش قیمت نفت برنت دریای شمال و نفت اورال روسیه در هر دو بازار مزبور محدود بوده و عمدتاً در کوتاه‌مدت معنادار نیستند. در مجموع، یافته های این پژوهش بر اهمیت عوامل بین‌المللی و پیوندهای قیمتی در پویایی بازارهای گاز تأکید دارد و نشان‌دهنده نقش تعدیل سریع انحرافات از تعادل بلند مدت در هر دو بازار گاز طبیعی اروپا و آسیا می‌باشد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Oil Market Developments on European and Asian Natural Gas Markets in Light of the Russia-Ukraine War

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amirhossein Hakimipour 1
  • Asgar Khademvatani 2
1 Student in Oil and Gas Economics, Department of Energy Economics and Management, Petroleum University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Energy Economics and Management, Petroleum University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The supply and production of energy, particularly fossil fuels, have reshaped the global balance of power. The ongoing crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war and subsequent international sanctions against Russia highlights the critical importance of controlling the energy production and distribution cycle. This study examines the impact of recent fluctuations in crude oil prices—specifically, Brent crude and Russian Urals crude—on natural gas prices in the European Union and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia within the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Utilizing dynamic time-series regression models, including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR), and a short-term dynamic Error Correction Model (ECM), the analysis employs daily data from March 1, 2021, to January 26, 2024. The findings reveal that both European and Asian gas markets are highly sensitive to gas price volatility, geopolitical factors, and oil prices in the short term. Notably, the short-term model estimation reveals that the Asian LNG price index and the ongoing conflict are the most influential factors affecting the European gas market. Conversely, the Asian gas market is significantly influenced not only by these elements but also by fluctuations in European gas prices. Long-term model results indicate a strong positive correlation between European and Asian gas price indices, underscoring the importance of this relationship in shaping global energy markets. While the Russia-Ukraine war serves as a significant geopolitical variable with substantial impacts on both gas markets, the influence of Brent crude and Russian Urals crude oil prices appears limited and largely insignificant in the short term. Overall, this study highlights the crucial role of international factors and price linkages in shaping gas market dynamics, demonstrating the rapid adjustment of deviations from long-term equilibrium in both the European and Asian natural gas markets

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Oil and Gas Market
  • Russia-Ukraine War
  • Geopolitical Developments
  • Dynamic Time Series

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 12، شماره 44
خرداد 1404
صفحه 145-184

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