پارامترهای موثر بر جرم و جنایت در ایران با رویکرد شبکه بیزین ناپارامتریک و علیت فضایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

4 دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

5 استاد اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

6 دکتری برق، گروه برق، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

یکی از چالش‌های قرن اخیر به ویژه در کشورهای درحال توسعه، افزایش بی رویه نرخ جرم و جنایت است. ایران نیز به عنوان یکی از کشورهای درحال توسعه از این قاعده مستثنی نیست. در این راستا در این پژوهش به بررسی پارامترهای اقتصادی-اجتماعی موثر بر سرقت در 429 شهرستان ایران در سال 1395 پرداخته شده است. برای این منظور از پنج شاخص اقتصادی-اجتماعی شامل نرخ بیکاری، نرخ صنعتی شدن، نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی، نرخ طلاق و نرخ شهرنشینی استفاده شده است. در این مطالعه از دو مدل شبکه ناپارامتریک بیزین و علیت فضایی استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل شبکه ناپارامتریک بیزین نشان می‌دهد که به جز نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی، سایر متغیرها به صورت مستقیم بر سرقت تاثیر دارند. از طرفی مهمترین متغیرهای اثرگذار بر سرقت، نرخ شهرنشینی و نرخ بیکاری می‌باشند. نتایج بدست آمده از روش علیت فضایی نیز  با در نظر اثرات فضایی و همجواری بین شهرستان‌ها، نتایج روش شبکه ناپارامتریک بیزین را تایید می‌کند

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Parameters affecting crime in Iran with non-parametric Bayesian network approach and spatial causality

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Amini 1
  • Saman Hatamerad 2
  • Hossain Mohammadi 3
  • Elham Nobahar 4
  • Hosein Asgharpour 5
  • Ali Afaghi 6
1 PhD in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Corresponding Author, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Zanjan, Zanjan
3 PhD Student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
4 Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
5 Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
6 PhD in Electrical Engineering, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the challenges of the last century, especially in developing countries, is the excessive increase in crime rates. Iran, as one of the developing countries, is not exempt from this rule. In this regard, in this research, socio-economic parameters affecting theft in 429 cities of Iran in 2015 have been investigated. For this purpose, five socio-economic indicators including unemployment rate, industrialization rate, economic participation rate, divorce rate and urbanization rate have been used. In this study, two non-parametric Bayesian network models and spatial causality have been used. The results of Bayesian non-parametric network analysis show that except for the rate of economic participation, other variables have a direct effect on theft. On the other hand, the most important variables affecting theft are urbanization rate and unemployment rate. The results obtained from the spatial causality method also confirm the results of the Bayesian non-parametric network method, taking into account the spatial effects and the neighborhood between the cities

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Crime
  • Bayesian nonparametric network
  • Spatial causality

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 12، شماره 44
خرداد 1404
صفحه 185-212

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