اثر سیاست پولی بر سرمایه در گردش بنگاه‌های تولیدی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار پژوهشکده پولی و بانکی ، تهران، ایران

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین مکانیسم‌های انتقال پولی که از سمت عرضه، اقتصاد را متاثر می‌کند، کانال سرمایه در گردش است. با توجه به وجود سرکوب مالی در بازار پول ایران (تعیین دستوری نرخ سود بانکی که در بیشتر دوره‌ها پایین‌تر از تورم است) پاسخ به این سوال که آیا این مکانیسم در اقتصاد ایران فعال هست یا خیر اهمیت زیادی دارد. برای این منظور با استفاده از اطلاعات سالانه ۳۵۶ شرکت بورسی در بازه ۱۳۸۳ تا ۱۴۰۲ و بکارگیری روش برآورد پانل پویای GMM اثر متغیرهای پولی (نرخ سود بانکی و رشد نقدینگی) بر سرمایه در گردش بنگاه‌ها مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بر اساس نتایج برآورد شده نرخ سود بانکی اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر سرمایه در گردش بنگاه‌ها دارد و رشد نقدینگی اثر معنی‌داری ندارد. همچنین تفکیک نسبت سرمایه در گردش عملیاتی به دو جز نسبت موجودی انبار و نسبت اعتبارات تجاری نشان می‌دهد که نرخ سود بانکی تنها از طریق نسبت اعتبارات تجاری اثر منفی بر کل نسبت سرمایه در گردش عملیاتی دارد. همچنین یافته‌ها نشان داد که اثر نرخ سود بانکی در تمام بنگاه‌ها یکسان نیست و در شرکت‌های کوچک‌تر و درجه اهرمی بالاتر قوی‌تر است. به‌علاوه سرمایه در گردش شرکت‌هایی که سهم نهاده‌های وارداتی در آنها قابل توجه است  تحت تاثیر نرخ سود بانکی نیستند. با توجه به نتایج پیشنهاد می‌شود عوارض جانبی منفی افزایش نرخ سود بانکی که به شکل کاهش عرضه اقتصاد می‌تواند ظاهر شود توسط سیاست‌گذار در نظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Monetary Policy on the Working Capital of Manufacturing Firms in Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Sajad Ebrahimi
Assistant Professor, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

One of the most important monetary transmission mechanisms that affects the economy from the supply side is the working capital channel. Given the existence of financial repression in Iran’s money market (administrative determination of bank interest rates, which in most periods are set below inflation), answering the question of whether this mechanism is active in the Iranian economy is of great importance. For this purpose, using annual data from 356 listed companies during the period 2004–2023 (1383–1402 in the Iranian calendar) and employing the dynamic panel GMM estimation method, the effects of monetary variables (bank interest rates and liquidity growth) on firms’ working capital have been examined. The estimation results indicate that bank interest rates have a negative and significant effect on firms’ working capital, while liquidity growth has no significant effect. Moreover, decomposing the operational working capital ratio into two components—the inventory ratio and the trade credit ratio—shows that bank interest rates affect the overall operational working capital ratio only through a negative effect on the trade credit ratio. The findings also reveal that the effect of bank interest rates is not uniform across firms and is stronger for smaller firms and those with higher leverage. In addition, the working capital of firms with a considerable share of imported inputs is not affected by bank interest rates. Based on the results, it is recommended that policymakers take into account the negative side effects of interest rate increases, which may manifest as a reduction in the supply side of the economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary Transmission Mechanism
  • Working Capital
  • Financial Repression
  • Dynamic Panel
  • Bank Interest Rate

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