واکاوی و بررسی اثرگذاری تحریم‌های اقتصادی ایالات متحده آمریکا بر چرخه‌های تجاری در اقتصاد جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران

چکیده

امروزه کشور ایران با مسئله تحریم­های اقتصادی مواجه است. این تحریم‌ها از سوی نهادها و کشورهای مختلف دنیا و به شکل‌های متنوع از سال 1979 میلادی علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران اعمال شده­اند. تحریم‌های اقتصادی، بخش‌های گسترده‌ای از اقتصاد ایران را تحت تاثیر خود قرار داده­اند و باعث به وجود آمدن شرایط جدیدی در بدنه اقتصادی جمهوری اسلامی ایران شده­اند. یکی از محل­های اثر تحریم­ها بر جریان چرخه‌های تجاری جمهوری اسلامی ایران است. هدف این مقاله، بررسی میزان اثرگذاری تحریم­های اقتصادی ایالات متحده آمریکا بر جریان چرخه­های تجاری در کشور ایران است. به منظور کمی­سازی اثر تحریم­های اقتصادی، شاخص تحریم­های اقتصادی محاسبه شد. به منظور به دست آوردن این شاخص، به 20 نفر از فعالان و صاحب نظران حوزه اقتصاد تحریم مراجعه شد و نظرات آنها با استفاده از پرسشنامه­های فازی جمع­آوری شد. سپس با استفاده از منطق فازی در فضای نرم­افزار MATLAB، شاخص تحریم­های اقتصادی برای بازه زمانی 2022-1979 محاسبه شد. پس از آن با استفاده از شاخص تحریم­ها، میزان اثرگذاری تحریم­های اقتصادی بر جریان چرخه­های تجاری با استفاده از روش خود رگرسیون در بازه زمانی 2022 - 1979 و در فضای نرم‌افزار ایویوز مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج به دست آمده نشان می­دهد که تحریم­های اقتصادی اعمال شده علیه جمهوری اسلامی ایران منجر به عمیق­تر شدن رکود اقتصادی و طولانی­تر شدن دوره­های رکودی در اقتصاد ایران شده­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing and Examining the Impact of U.S. Economic Sanctions on Business Cycles in the Economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Saeed Iranmanesh
Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management & Accounting, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Iran
چکیده [English]

Today, Iran faces the issue of economic sanctions. These sanctions have been imposed by various institutions and countries in different forms against the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1979. Economic sanctions have affected large sectors of the Iranian economy and have created new conditions within the economic structure of the country. One area of impact of these sanctions is the flow of business cycles in Iran. The objective of this paper is to examine the extent of the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on business cycle flows in Iran. To quantify the effects of economic sanctions, an Economic Sanctions Index was developed. For this purpose, 20 experts and specialists in the field of economic sanctions were consulted, and their opinions were collected using fuzzy questionnaires. Then, using fuzzy logic in MATLAB, the Economic Sanctions Index was calculated for the period 1979–2022. Subsequently, using the sanctions index, the impact of economic sanctions on business cycle flows was analyzed using the autoregressive method over the period 1979–2022 in EViews. The results indicate that economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran have led to deeper recessions and longer recession periods in the Iranian economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic Sanctions Index
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Business Cycles
  • Fuzzy Logic

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