مدیریت ارزی بانک مرکزی در راستای بند 2 سیاست های کلی برنامه هفتم پیشرفت در شرایط تحریم های اقتصادی: رویکرد DSGE

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به فراگیری استفاده از تحریم‌های اقتصادی و ارائه نظام­های تحریمی نوین از ابتدای دهه 1390 و احتمال بکارگیری سیاست فشار حداکثری در دولت دوم ترامپ به‌عنوان ابزاری برای اعمال فشار اقتصادی - سیاسی، این مطالعه به دنبال ارائه چارچوبی برای ارزیابی مدیریت ارزی بانک مرکزی در راستای بند 2 سیاست های کلی برنامه هفتم پیشرفت در شرایط تحریم های اقتصادی است. برای این کار از روشDSGE  با رویکرد نئوکینزی برای شبیه‌سازی تأثیر تحریم‌های نفتی و مالی بر اقتصاد ایران برای دوره زمانی 1403-1370 استفاده نموده است. مرکز ثقل این تحقیق بکارگیری سیاست‌های پولی بهینه با هدف کاهش زیان‌های بانک مرکزی در شرایط تحریمی است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان می‌دهد که اعمال سیاست‌های پولی بهینه با تمرکز بر کنترل تورم و کاهش شکاف تولیدی در شرایط تشدید تحریم‌های نفتی و مالی، می­تواند زیان‌های بانک مرکزی را بخصوص با تمرکز بیشتر بر کنترل تورم، از مجرای مدیریت بازار ارز و ایجاد ثبات در نرخ ارز و به تبع نرخ تورم و همچنین کاهش فشار بر نهاده­های تولیدی داخلی مطابق بند 2 سیاست­های کلی برنامه هفتم توسعه به‌طور قابل‌توجهی کاهش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Central Bank Exchange Rate Management in Line with Clause 2 of the General Policies of the Seventh Development Plan under Economic Sanctions: A DSGE Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farideh Khodadadi 1
  • Seyyed Reza Nakhli 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Given the widespread use of economic sanctions and the introduction of new sanction regimes since the early 2010s, as well as the potential application of a “maximum pressure” policy during Trump’s second administration as a tool for economic-political leverage, this study seeks to provide a framework for evaluating the Central Bank’s exchange rate management in line with Clause 2 of the general policies of the Seventh Development Plan under economic sanctions. For this purpose, a DSGE approach with a Neo-Keynesian perspective is employed to simulate the impact of oil and financial sanctions on Iran’s economy over the period 1991–2024. The focal point of this research is the application of optimal monetary policies aimed at minimizing the Central Bank’s losses under sanction conditions. Simulation results indicate that implementing optimal monetary policies, with a focus on controlling inflation and reducing the output gap, can significantly mitigate the Central Bank’s losses under intensified oil and financial sanctions. This approach is efficient when emphasizing inflation control through exchange rate market management, stabilizing the exchange rate (and consequently, inflation), and alleviating pressures on domestic production inputs, in accordance with Clause 2 of the general policies outlined in the Seventh Development Plan.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange rate policy
  • Monetary policy
  • Oil sanctions
  • International financial sanctions
  • Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model

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نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 48
شماره بهار 1405
اسفند 1404
صفحه 147-176

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