بررسی تأثیر قیمت نفت و نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی بر تورم: رویکرد نوین تبدیل کوانتایل موجک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

3 دانشیار (مدرس ارشد) امور مالی در دانشگاه اکستر، اکستر، دوون، بریتانیا

4 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام

چکیده

این مطالعه به بررسی اثر قیمت نفت و نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی بر تورم طی دوره زمانی 2008 تا 2023 می‌پردازد. هدف اصلی این تحقیق، تحلیل پویایی‌های پیچیده بین این متغیرها در افق‌های زمانی مختلف و تحت شرایط بازارهای مختلف (مانند بازارهای صعودی و نزولی) است. در این مطالعه از روش تبدیل کوانتایل موجک و بررسی هم‌زمان اثر قیمت نفت و نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی بر توزیع تورم در افق‌های زمانی مختلف استفاده شده است؛ استفاده از تبدیل کوانتایل این امکان را فراهم می‌کند که روابط میان متغیرها در افق‌های زمانی مختلف به‌صورت دقیق‌تر تحلیل شود و نشان می‌دهد که تأثیر شوک‌های اقتصادی و سیاستی بر تورم در کوانتایل‌های مختلف متفاوت است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که قیمت نفت تأثیر معناداری بر تورم دارد، اما این تأثیر در بازه‌های زمانی کوتاه‌مدت، میان‌مدت و بلندمدت متفاوت است. تأثیر قیمت نفت بر تورم در بازه‌های زمانی کوتاه‌مدت بیشتر است و با گذر زمان کاهش می‌یابد. نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی نیز اثر قابل توجهی بر تورم دارد، به‌ویژه در شرایطی که بازار با نوسانات بالای سیاستی مواجه است. این اثر به ویژه در کوانتایل‌های بالا (یعنی زمانی که تورم در سطوح بالاتر است) بیشتر مشاهده می‌شود. استفاده از تبدیل موجک کوانتایلی به محققان این امکان را داده تا روابط میان متغیرها را در افق‌های زمانی مختلف و در شرایط متفاوت بازار به طور دقیق‌تری تحلیل کنند. این روش نشان می‌دهد که تأثیر شوک‌های اقتصادی و سیاستی بر تورم در کوانتایل‌های مختلف، متفاوت است. نتایج این مطالعه به سیاست‌گذاران اقتصادی کمک می‌کند تا درک بهتری از اثرات متغیرهای کلیدی مانند قیمت نفت و نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی بر تورم داشته باشند و در مواجهه با این چالش‌ها استراتژی‌های مؤثرتری را اتخاذ کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Inflation: A Novel Wavelet Quantile Transformation Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Moridian 1
  • Hassan Heidari 2
  • Seyedmehdi Hosseini 3
  • Heshmatolah Asgari 4
1 PhD student in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
3 Associate Professor (Senior Lecturer) in Finance at University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom
4 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ilam University, Ilam
چکیده [English]

This study examines the effect of oil prices and economic policy uncertainty on inflation over the period 2008 to 2023. The main objective of this research is to analyze the complex dynamics between these variables over different time horizons and under different market conditions (such as bull and bear markets). In this study, the wavelet quantile transformation method is used and the effect of oil prices and economic policy uncertainty on the distribution of inflation over different time horizons is simultaneously examined; the use of quantile transformation allows for a more detailed analysis of the relationships between variables over different time horizons and shows that the impact of economic and policy shocks on inflation is different in different quantiles. The results show that oil prices have a significant impact on inflation, but this impact is different in the short, medium and long term. The impact of oil prices on inflation is greater in the short term and decreases over time. Economic policy uncertainty also has a significant effect on inflation, especially when the market is facing high policy volatility. This effect is particularly pronounced in the upper quantiles (i.e., when inflation is at higher levels). Using the quantile wavelet transform has allowed researchers to more accurately analyze the relationships between variables over different time horizons and under different market conditions. This method shows that the impact of economic and policy shocks on inflation varies across quantiles. The results of this study help economic policymakers better understand the effects of key variables such as oil prices and economic policy uncertainty on inflation and adopt more effective strategies in the face of these challenges.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic policy uncertainty
  • wavelet approach
  • exchange rate

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