نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد منابع و زیرساخت، مرکز پژوهش های توسعه و آیندهنگری، تهران، ایران
2 گروه مهندسی پیشرفت اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و مهندسی پیشرفت، دانشگاه علم و صنعت، تهران، ایران
3 دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Objective:
This study aims to examine the responsiveness of inflation in Iran’s economy to key policy variables, including the monetary base, budget deficit, exchange rate, and balance of payments. In addition, the research evaluates the asymmetric responses of inflation to positive and negative shocks in these variables over the short and long run.
Methods:
Time-series data covering the period 2001–2023 were collected and analyzed using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to investigate the relationships among the variables.
Results:
The results indicate that the monetary base, budget deficit, exchange rate, and balance of payments play a significant role in explaining fluctuations and variations in inflation. Moreover, the findings reveal that inflation responds asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks in these variables, generating distinct effects in the short and long run.
Conclusions:
The evidence suggests that monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and trade policies in Iran must be formulated and implemented with careful consideration of their asymmetric and heterogeneous impacts on inflation. Neglecting these nonlinearities may undermine the effectiveness of policies aimed at managing and controlling inflation.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)