نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه شیراز، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی. بخش اقتصاد. دانشجوی دکتر اقتصاد پولی
2 بخش اقتصاد/ دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شیراز / شیراز - ایران
3 بخش اقتصاد، دانشگاه شیراز
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study investigates whether the impact of monetary and fiscal policy in Iran depends on the choice of the financial instability index and identifies the most suitable indicator for measuring financial instability. Using a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we examine monetary and fiscal policy shocks from 1990 to 2021 through ex-ante and ex-post indices. The ex-ante indices include interest rates, loan rates, entrepreneurial capital return, and bank portfolio rates, while the ex-post index is derived endogenously. The analysis of impulse-response functions shows that increases in the spreads of 'bank portfolio return and interest rate' and 'loan rate and interest rate,' and the negative spreads between 'capital return and loan rate' and 'capital return and interest rate,' result in financial instability. A monetary shock has a greater effect on financial instability than a fiscal shock. The correlation matrix indicates that the spread between the “loan rate and interest rate” is the most appropriate instability index for monetary shocks, while the spread between the return on entrepreneurial capital and the bank portfolio is most suitable for fiscal shocks. The research emphasizes the need to balance the profitability of the banking sector with the real economy to ensure financial stability. It also highlights the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to achieve this goal. Furthermore, the spread between the “return on entrepreneurial capital and loan rate” shows a more pronounced reaction to shocks.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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