بررسی کارایی تحریم‌های یک‌جانبه و چندجانبه بر تجارت خارجی محصولات غیرنفتی در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادگروه اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز،

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز،

3 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد بین الملل دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

در این مقاله تأثیر تحریم اقتصادی بر حجم تجارت ایران با 73 شریک اصلی تجاری مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. برای این منظور از مدل جاذبه تعدیل یافته و رهیافت داده­های تلفیقی پویا استفاده شده است. برای بررسی تأثیر تحریم اقتصادی روی تجارت خارجی ایران ابتدا اثر تحریم‌های یک‌جانبه و چند جانبه روی تجارت ایران با کل شرکای تجاری بررسی شده است. نتایج نشان داده که تحریم‌های یک‌جانبه آمریکا، روی تجارت خارجی ایران تأثیر معنی داری نداشته ولی تحریم‌های چند جانبه تأثیر منفی و معنی داری بر تجارت خارجی ایران داشته است. به منظور بررسی فرضیه قابلیت فرار و گریز از تحریم، تأثیر تحریم اقتصادی بر حجم تجارت خارجی ایران با کشورهای ثالث در قالب مدل جداگانه‌ای بررسی شده است. نتایج تخمین نشان داده است که تحریم‌های یک‌جانبه تأثیر مثبت و معنی داری بر حجم تجارت ایران با کشورهای ثالث داشته است. به عبارت دیگر ایران توانسته است برای مقابله با تحریم‌های یک‌جانبه آمریکا از طریق گسترش تجارت خود با کشورهای ثالث اثر تحریم آمریکا را محدود و کنترل نماید. ولی تحریم‌های چندجانبه تأثیر منفی و معنی داری بر حجم تجارت ایران با این کشورها داشته است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Study of Unilateral and Multilateral Sanctions Effectiveness on Iran's Non-Oil Foreign Trade Products

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Kazerooni 1
  • Adel Ghorbani 2
  • Reza Saghafi Kalvanagh 3
1 Professor of Economics, University of Tabriz
2 Ph.D. Student in Economics
3 Ph.D. Student in Economics, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]

In this study, the impact of economic sanctions on Iranian trade flow with the 73 main trading partners has been estimated over the period 2001 to 2012 by using a modified gravity model as well as two stages GMM dynamic panel data technique. To investigate the impact of economic sanctions on Iran's foreign trade, the sanctions effect has been examined on Iranian trade with all trading partners. The results have shown that US unilateral sanctions on Iran's foreign trade has no significant effect. But multilateral sanctions have had a significant negative effect on Iran's foreign trade. Impact of sanctions on Iran's trade with third party countries is examined in a separate model. In this section, the ability of a country to escape and evade sanctions (a sanction busting hypothesis) has been tested. The results of estimations indicate that the unilateral sanctions do not have a significant effect on the volume of Iranian trade with third countries. In other words, Iran has been able to limit and control the United States unilateral sanctions by Trade expansion with third countries. But multilateral sanctions have had a significant negative impact on the Iran's trade with these countries. This result confirms the hypothesis Unilateral sanction-busting for the Iran's economy.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Environmental Performance
  • Energy Intensive Industries
  • Directional Distance Function
  • Technical Efficiency
 
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