برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق با اهداف اقتصادی و زیست‌محیطی تحت شرایط عدم‌حتمیت: مطالعه موردی استان کرمان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 استاد اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

4 دانشیار مهندسی برق- قدرت دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

برنامه‌‌‌‌‌ریزی برای گسترش تولید GEP))، مساله تعیین استراتژی بهینه برای برنامه‌‌‌‌‌ریزی ساخت نیروگاه‌های جدید با رعایت محدودیت‌‌‌‌‌های فنی و اقتصادی است. در طی چند سال اخیر مسایل زیست-محیطی نیز به دغدغه‌های اصلی برنامه‌ریزان نیروگاه‌ها اضافه شده‌است. هدف این مطالعه بررسی مدل برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق چند هدفه برای مطالعه تغییرات در تصمیم‌‌های تولید و آلودگی دی‌‌‌‌‌اکسید‌‌‌‌‌کربن تحت عدم حتمیت در تقاضا و عرضه برق می‌باشد. عدم حتمیت‌های تقاضا و ضریب ظرفیت تولیدی برق (عدم حتمیت عرضه‌ی برق) به‌صورت یک مجموعه فازی بیان شد. مدل فازی چند هدفه برای سیستم برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق استان کرمان برای یک دوره‌ی 12 ساله به کار گرفته شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که برای پاسخ به تقاضا و تأمین همزمان اهداف اقتصادی (حداقل‌‌‌‌‌سازی هزینه‌های تولید) و زیست‌‌‌‌‌محیطی (حداقل‌‌‌‌‌سازی هزینه‌های آلودگی دی‌‌‌‌‌اکسید‌‌‌‌‌کربن) تحت شرایط عدم حتمیت تقاضا و ضریب ظرفیت تولید، بایستی ظرفیت فناوری‌های برق بادی، برق‎آبی و سوخت زغال‌‌‌‌‌سنگ به ترتیب باید بیشترین گسترش را یابد. این در حالی است که اگر تنها هدف اقتصادی در نظر گرفته شود، برنامه‌ریزی به‌صورت افزایش ظرفیت تولید برق از انرژی زغال‌‌‌‌‌سنگ خواهد بود. همچنین برای تأمین هدف زیست‌‌‌‌‌محیطی، به ترتیب بیشترین گسترش در ظرفیت فناوری‌های تجدیدپذیر برق بادی، برق‎آبی و فتوولتائیک در برنامه‌ریزی قرار دارد. تفاوت در نتایج، اهمیت تحلیل یکپارچه و جامع برنامه‌ریزی گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق را نمایان می‌سازد. بنابراین، تصمیم‌سازان می‌توانند در چارچوب نگاه همه جانبه اقتصادی و زیست‌‌‌‌‌محیطی و لحاظ عدم حتمیت‌های طرف تقاضا و عرضه به برنامه‌ریزی پایدار گسترش ظرفیت تولید برق بپردازند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Generation Power Capacity Expansion Economic-Environmental Planning under Uncertainty: Case Study of Kerman Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yahya Hatami 1
  • Zeinolabedin Sadeghi 2
  • Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalayi 3
  • Amir Abdollahi 4
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
2 Associate Professor of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
3 Professor of Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
4 Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
چکیده [English]

Generation expansion planning (GEP) includes determining the optimal strategy to plan the construction of new generation plants while satisfying technical and economic constraints.
Generation expansion planning (GEP) includes determining the optimal strategy to plan the construction of new generation plants while satisfying technical and economic constraints. The purpose of this study is to examine a multi-Objective power generation capacity expansion planning model for studying changes in production decisions and carbon dioxide contamination under uncertainty of power demand and supply. Uncertainty of demand and power generation capacity factor (supply uncertainty) were expressed as a fuzzy set, and a fuzzy multi-objective nonlinear model  was used for a case study of Kerman power generation capacity expansion planning system for a 12-year period. The result of the study showed that in order to meet demand and to ensure the economic (minimizing production costs) and environmental (minimizing the costs of carbon dioxide pollution) objectives in the same time under the uncertainty of demand and generation capacity factor, the capacity of wind and water technology along with coal fuel should be respectively expanded by almost. However, as far as only economic goals are concerned, the plan will include the increase of coal fuel electricity production capacity. Furthermore, to meet environmental goal, capacity expansion of renewable wind, water and photovoltaic power technologies are respectively expected in the plan. The difference in results reveals the importance of integrated and comprehensive planning for the power generation capacity expansion planning.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Planning of generation power capacity
  • uncertainty
  • Carbon dioxide pollution
  • Multi-objective fuzzy programming model
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