بررسی رابطه پوشش بیمه بیکاری با مدت بیکاری در ایران قبل و پس از همه‌گیری کوید 19

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجو کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پوشش بیکاری از طریق بیمه­های اجتماعی یکی از سیاست­گذاری­های عمومی به­ منظور کاهش پیامدهای اجتماعی معضل بیکاری است. با این وجود، اعطای مقرری­های سخاوتمندانه برای یک مدت برقراری طولانی طبق نظریة جستجوی شغل می­تواند تأثیری منفی بر انگیزه­ اشتغال مجدد بیکاران داشته و به طولانی شدن مدت بیکاری منجر شود. این مقاله با ترکیب داده­های فصلی طرح آماری نیروی کار مرکز آمار ایران برای سال­های 1397 تا 1401 به بررسی رابطه بین پوشش بیمه بیکاری و مدت بیکاری می­پردازد. با استفاده از این مجموعه ترکیبی، تغییر این رابطه در نتیجه همه­گیری کوید 19 نسبت به قبل ارزیابی می­گردد. یافته­های پژوهش بطور کل نشان دادند که زنان، مجردین، شهرنشینان، جوانان، افراد تحصیلکرده، افرادی که به دلایلی مثل پایین بودن درآمد، اخراج، بازنشستگی، یا بیماری ترک کار داشته­اند، کارآموزان، کارکنان بخش دولتی، کارکن مستقل و مشاغل آزاد، افراد با سابقه کار پایین، و افرادی که در بخش خدمات در جستجوی شغل هستند، با ثبات سایر عوامل بطور متوسط مدت بیکاری طولانی­تری را تجربه خواهند کرد. علاوه بر این، مشخص شد که در 8 استان از جمله سیستان و بلوچستان، بوشهر، سمنان، یزد، هرمزگان، البرز، آذربایجان شرقی و کرمان متوسط مدت بیکاری طولانی­تر از تهران است. در خصوص سؤال اصلی پژوهش، نتایج بدست آمده مؤید یک رابطه مثبت بین بیمه بیکاری و مدت بیکاری است به ­گونه­ای که مقرری­بگیران بیکاری بطور متوسط 453/1 ماه مدت بیکاری طولانی­تری دارند. نکته جالب توجه این­که تأثیر پوشش بیمه بیکاری بر مدت بیکاری در دوران همه­گیری به 651/2 ماه رسیده و حدود 198/1 ماه تشدید شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the Relationship between Unemployment Insurance Coverage and Unemployment Duration in Iran before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Khandan 1
  • Fatemeh Amiri 2
  • Majid Afshari Rad 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics of Public Affairs, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
2 Master student, Department of Economics of Public Affairs, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics of Public Affairs, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Unemployment coverage through social insurance is one of the public policy measures aimed at mitigating the social consequences of unemployment. However, providing generous benefits over a prolonged period, according to job search theory, can negatively affect the re-employment incentives of the unemployed and lead to longer unemployment durations. This study uses combined quarterly data from Iran’s Labor Force Survey conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran for the years 2018–2023 to examine the relationship between unemployment insurance coverage and unemployment duration. Using this combined dataset, the study evaluates how this relationship changed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period. The findings indicate that women, single individuals, urban residents, young people, highly educated individuals, those who left work due to low income, dismissal, retirement, or illness, apprentices, government employees, self-employed and freelance workers, individuals with limited work experience, and those seeking employment in the service sector, on average, experience longer unemployment durations, holding other factors constant. Furthermore, it was found that in eight provinces—Sistan and Baluchestan, Bushehr, Semnan, Yazd, Hormozgan, Alborz, East Azerbaijan, and Kerman—the average unemployment duration is longer than in Tehran. Regarding the main research question, the results confirm a positive relationship between unemployment insurance coverage and unemployment duration. Unemployment benefit recipients’ experience, on average, 1.453 months longer unemployment spells. Notably, the effect of unemployment insurance coverage on unemployment duration during the COVID-19 pandemic increased to 2.651 months, representing an intensification of approximately 1.198 months.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • COVID-19 pandemic
  • unemployment duration
  • unemployment insurance

مراجع

  1. Ahammer, A., & Packham, A. (2023). Effects of unemployment insurance duration on mental and physical health. Journal of Public Economics, 226, 104996.‏
  2. Bell, A., Hedin, T. J., Schnorr, G., & von Wachter, T. (2024). Unemployment Insurance (UI) Benefit Generosity and Labor Supply from 2002 to 2020: Evidence from California UI Records. Journal of Labor Economics, 42(S1), S379-S416.‏
  3. Cahuc, P., Carcillo, S., & Zylberberg, A. (2014). Labor economics. MIT press.‏
  4. Card, D., Johnston, A., Leung, P., Mas, A., & Pei, Z. (2015). The effect of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment insurance receipt: New evidence from a regression kink design in Missouri, 2003–2013. American Economic Review, 105(5), 126-130.‏
  5. Khoo, W. C., Yeah, K. L., & Hong, S. Y. (2022). Modeling unemployment duration, determinants and insurance premium pricing of Malaysia: insights from an upper middle-income developing country. SN Business & Economics, 2(8), 116.‏
  6. Cohen, J. P., & Ganong, P. (2024). Disemployment effects of unemployment insurance: A meta-analysis (No. w32832). National Bureau of Economic Research.‏
  7. Davoudi, A., Hoshmand, M. & Malek Sadati, S. S. (2019). Survival analysis for the unemployment duration of Persons Covered by Unemployment Insurance in Iran (2013-2018). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 8(31), 127-157 (In Persian).
  8. Davoudi, A., Hoshmand, M., & Malek Sadati, S. (2018). Investigating Unemployment Protection Policies in Iran using Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Methods. Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 26(87), 249-308 (In Persian).
  9. Domènech-Arumí, G., & Vannutelli, S. (2025). Bringing them in or pushing them out? The labor market effects of pro-cyclical unemployment assistance changes. Review of Economics and Statistics, 107(2), 324-337.‏
  10. Doris, A., O’Neill, D., & Sweetman, O. (2020). Does Reducing Unemployment Benefits during a Recession Reduce Youth Unemployment?: Evidence from a 50 Percent Cut in Unemployment Assistance. Journal of Human Resources, 55(3), 902-925.‏
  11. Feizpour, M. A., Zare, M. H., & Zare Zardeyni, A. (2022). The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment Duration in Yazd. The Journal of Economic Policy, 14(27), 85-112 (In Persian).
  12. Ganong, P., Greig, F., Noel, P., Sullivan, D. M., & Vavra, J. (2024). Spending and job-finding impacts of expanded unemployment benefits: Evidence from administrative micro data. American Economic Review, 114(9), 2898-2939.‏
  13. Hochmuth, B., Kohlbrecher, B., Merkl, C., & Gartner, H. (2021). Hartz IV and the decline of German unemployment: A macroeconomic evaluation. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 127, 104114.‏
  14. Jahadi, M., & Elmi, Z. (2022). Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Urban and Rural Region in Iran; A Non-Parametric Approach. Applied Theories of Economics, 8(4), 101-126 (In Persian).
  15. Keshavarzi, A., Horry, H. R., Jalaee Esfandabadi, S. A., Rafei, M., & Nejati, M. (2023). The Design of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model to aim of Investigate the Effect of Pandemic Disease Outbreak on the Dynamics of Macroeconomic Variables. Applied Theories of Economics, 10(1), 1-32 (In Persian).
  16. Khandan, A. (2023). worldwide experience in coverage expansion of unemployment insurance to non-standard jobs, self-employment and young people without employment history. Social Security Journal, 19(3), 13-43 (In Persian).
  17. Khandan, A. (1401). Optimal Unemployment Insurance Model: Needed Reforms of the Unemployment Insurance Fund with a Focus on the Labor Market. Research Report. Institute for Social Security Research (SSOR), Iran (In Persian).
  18. Kroft, K., & Notowidigdo, M. J. (2016). Should unemployment insurance vary with the unemployment rate? Theory and evidence. The Review of Economic Studies, 83(3), 1092-1124.‏
  19. Kyyrä, T., & Pesola, H. (2020). The effects of UI benefits on unemployment and subsequent outcomes: Evidence from a kinked benefit rule. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(5), 1135-1160.‏
  20. Lopes, M. C. (2022). A review on the elasticity of unemployment duration to the potential duration of unemployment benefits. Journal of Economic Surveys, 36(4), 1212-1224.‏
  21. Malek Sadati, S. S., Cheshme Ghasabani, N., & Khandan, A. (2022). Unemployment Risk Estimation and Adverse-selection in Coverage of Unemployment Insurance in Iran. Journal of Economic Essays: An Islamic Approach, 19(37), 291-313 (In Persian).
  22. Mortensen, D. T. (1977). Unemployment insurance and job search decisions. ILR Review, 30(4), 505-517.‏
  23. Osiander, C., Senghaas, M., Stephan, G., & Struck, O. (2021). Längeres Arbeitslosengeld in der Krise? Covid-19 und die angemessene maximale Bezugsdauer. KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 73(3), 419-448.‏
  24. Park, S., Lee, K. M., & Earle, J. S. (2024). Death Without Benefits: Unemployment Insurance, Re-Employment, and the Spread of Covid (No. 2fnkp_v1). Center for Open Science.‏
  25. Felder, R., Frings, H., & Mittag, N. (2024). How does potential unemployment insurance benefit duration affect reemployment timing and wages?.‏
  26. Rebollo-Sanz, Y. F., & Rodríguez-Planas, N. (2020). When the going gets tough…: Financial incentives, duration of unemployment, and job-match quality. Journal of Human Resources, 55(1), 119-163.‏
  27. Rujiwattanapong, S. (2024). Job Search, Job Findings and the Role of Unemployment Insurance History. Job Findings and the Role of Unemployment Insurance History.‏
  28. Rujiwattanapong, W. S. (2025). Unemployment dynamics and endogenous unemployment insurance extensions. European Economic Review, 105106.‏
  29. Schmieder, J. F., Von Wachter, T., & Bender, S. (2012). The effects of extended unemployment insurance over the business cycle: Evidence from regression discontinuity estimates over 20 years. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(2), 701-752.‏
  30. Wanberg, C. R., van Hooft, E. A., Dossinger, K., Van Vianen, A. E., & Klehe, U. C. (2020). How strong is my safety net? Perceived unemployment insurance generosity and implications for job search, mental health, and reemployment. Journal of Applied Psychology, 105(3), 209.‏
  31. Zhang, X. (2025). The Effect of Cutting Unemployment Compensation Duration on Unemployment Rate and Wages. International Journal of Management Science Research, 8(4), 63-70.‏

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار