اثرات نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی، کیفیت نهادی و انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر بر رشد سبز :مطالعه موردی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز

2 استادیار اقتصاد دانشگاه پیام نور تهران

3 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

تغییرات آب و هوایی جهانی که با  انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای به ویژه دی اکسید کربن تشدید می­شود، خطر بزرگی برای زندگی، محیط زیست جهانی و توسعه ایجاد می­کند. تخریب محیط زیست یکی از بحث ‌انگیزترین موضوعات در مجامع بین‌المللی است و نگرانی اصلی برای کل جهان محسوب می­شود. بنابراین، محققان و سیاست­گذاران توجه خود را از رشد اقتصادی متعارف به رشد سبز معطوف کرده­اند. مطالعه حاضر در تلاش برای بررسی تأثیر نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی، مصرف انرژی­های تجدیدپذیر و کیفیت نهادی بر رشد سبز طی دوره زمانی 1381-1399 در کشور ایران است. متغیر مورد استفاده در نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی با یک شاخص ترکیبی بدست آمده است که نااطمینانی در سیاست­های ارزی، پولی و مالی با استفاده از الگوهای اقتصادسنجی  و محاسبه شده است. همچنین متغیر رشد سبز، رشد اقتصادی تعدیل شده با محیط زیست است و به تبعیت از تحقیقات احمد و همکاران (2022) و  سوهاگ و همکاران (2022) مورد سنجش قرار گرفته شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل موضوع پژوهش از روش خود رگرسیونی با وقفه توزیعی چندکی (QARDL) استفاده شده است. یافته­های تجربی نشان می­دهد که نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی در تمامی چندک­های 25/0، 50/0، 75/0 و 95/0 تأثیر منفی بر رشد سبز دارد، در حالی که مصرف انرژی­های تجدیدپذیر و کیفیت نهادی، رشد سبز را افزایش می­دهند. از متغیرهای کنترلی سرمایه، اشتغال و باز بودن تجارت و تأثیر گذاری آن بر رشد سبز نیز استفاده شده است. در کل چندک­ها متغیرهای کنترلی باز بودن تجارت و سرمایه تأثیر مثبت بر رشد سبز داشته است، در حالی که اشتغال تأثیر منفی بر آن داشته است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertain Effects of Economic Policy, Institutional Quality, and Renewable Energies on Green Growth: A Case Study of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Karimi Takanlou 1
  • Amir Ali Farhang 2
  • Ali Mohammadpour 3
1 faculty of economics and management/university of tabriz
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University
3 PH.D student of Economic Science, Tabriz University
چکیده [English]

Global climate change, exacerbated by the emission of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide), poses a significant threat to life, the global environment, and development. Environmental degradation is a highly debated issue in international forums and is recognized as a significant concern worldwide. Consequently, researchers and policymakers have shifted their focus from traditional economic growth to green growth. This study explores the influence of economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption, and institutional quality on green growth in Iran from 2002 to 2020. Economic policy uncertainty is measured using a composite index that incorporates currency, monetary, and financial policy uncertainty, calculated through ARCH and GARCH econometric models. Green growth is defined as economic growth adjusted for environmental considerations, based on Ahmed et al. (2022) and Sohag et al. (2022). The Quantile Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) method is employed for data analysis. Empirical findings reveal that economic policy uncertainty negatively affects green growth across all quantiles (0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95), whereas renewable energy consumption and institutional quality contribute positively to green growth. Control variables, including capital stock, employment, and degree of trade openness, are also incorporated in the analysis. Trade openness and capital positively influence green growth across all quantiles, while employment has a negative impact

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • green growth
  • economic policy uncertainty
  • institutional quality
  • Renewable energies, QARDL
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  2. صادقی، سید کمال، سجودی، سکینه و احمد زاده دلجوان، فهیمه (1396). تأثیر انرژی­های تجدیدپذیر بر رشد اقتصادی و کیفیت محیط زیست در ایران. فصلنامه پژوهش­های سیاستگذاری و برنامه­ریزی انرژی، 3(1)، 202-171.

 

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